All posts by Michael Comeau
Sentiment Report: The Fear Factor
It took a while, but the bulls were finally brought down to earth after 13 months of straight-up action. And sentiment was remarkably positive from December 2017 until last Friday when volatility exploded, leading to the VIX spiking over 50 on Tuesday morning. It’s common for the market to top out when sentiment gets to extreme levels. But it actually took 2 whole months for that to happen during this once-in-a-life-time stretch of happiness! Now, let’s take a look at how the mood has changed using our handy dandy sentiment indicators. (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bearish As of Friday morning, the VIX was hovering right around 30. It was actually under 10 in early January, so this is a major change. And the 50.30 spike high matched the 53.29 high set in the August 2015 mini-crash. The 3-month VIX spread is completely blown out at around -10. This means traders are very bearish and expect a lot of volatility. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bearish The Fear & Greed Index is at 8, down from 59 last week. This index operates on a 0-100 scale, and a reading of 8 means traders are very fearful (or bearish). This is a shocking change. Fear & Greed was at 76 just a month ago. 3) AAII Sentiment – Neutral The American Association of Individual Investors’ Sentiment Survey shows that 37% of those surveyed are bullish. This is down from 44.7 last week. The long-term average is 38.4%, so this is basically neutral. Interestingly, this indicator was mostly neutral in 2017, and only turned bullish in January 2018 — implying that individual investors were a bit late to the party. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bearish The long-term average of the CBOE equity put-call ratio is 0.654. And from December 7, 2016 to February 1, there wasn’t a single day above that long-term average, which means there was an above-average level of call buying. The trend changed on Friday, February 2. Since then, the CBOE equity put-call has averaged 0.736, which means a sudden increase in demand for put options. A single-day reading around 1 would indicate extreme fear, and we’re not even close to that yet. In the past 5 days of volatility, the highest reading was 0.77. So options traders are bearish, but only moderately so. Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 0 bullish (down from 4 last week) 1 neutral (up from 0 last week) 3 bearish (up from 0 last week) On October 6, I made the following melodramatic declaration: Let’s not mince words: the bulls are clearly insane. They think they’re destined to ride into the sunset on a magic carpet made of cold hard cash. I can see both sides of the coin here. The bulls may be insane… but they may also be right. Timing market turns based on sentiment indicators is awfully tricky. And remember, the trend can go on a lot longer than may seem reasonable. I threw in that sentence “Timing market turns based on sentiment indicators is awfully tricky” for a very good reason. These indicators are for color. They are only one part of the investment process, not signals on their own. Turns out that sentiment indicators were not very helpful in calling the 2018 top, because they’ve been very bullish since early December. So unfortunately, they may not be helpful in calling the bottom either!
Continue Reading -->Volatility Is Picking Up but Nobody Cares
Sentiment has been remarkably bullish since December 2017. It’s common for the market to top out when sentiment gets to extreme levels, but as we’ve learned in this once-in-a-life-time stretch of happiness, there’s no guarantee. And indeed, even though volatility reared its head this week, the bulls stayed pretty dang happy. So let’s dig into our sentiment indicators to see if traders are still feeling happy. (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bullish Three weeks ago, the VIX made several intraday lows around 9, indicating that traders expect almost no volatility. The VIX hit a 6-month high of 15.42 this week, but it came down to around 13. Now, on the surface, that may imply that traders are slightly more cautious. However, the curve of the VIX futures term structure is very, very flat. This again means that traders expect near-zero volatility for the next few months. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bullish The Fear & Greed Index is at 59, down from 72 last week. This index operates on a 0-100 scale, and a reading of 59 means traders are moderately greedy (or bullish). So no real change here. 3) AAII Sentiment – Bullish The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 44.8% of survey respondents are bullish, which is well above the long-term average of 38.3%. It’s slightly down from last week’s 45.5% level, but still bullish overall. We did see an uptick in investors calling themselves bearish, but it’s nothing dramatic. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio’s latest reading is 0.59. This is slightly below the 0.654 long-term average. The 10-day moving average is 0.558, which is extremely low on a historical basis. So it’s the same old story: traders are buying up call options like they’re hotcakes, and they’re not buying many puts. Of course, that’s worked out beautifully for bulls because the market hit a string of new all-time highs in January! Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 4 bullish (flat from last week) 0 neutral 0 bearish On October 6, I made the following melodramatic declaration: Let’s not mince words: the bulls are clearly insane. They think they’re destined to ride into the sunset on a magic carpet made of cold hard cash. I can see both sides of the coin here. The bulls may be insane… but they may also be right. Timing market turns based on sentiment indicators is awfully tricky. And remember, the trend can go on a lot longer than may seem reasonable. And I’ll repeat what I’ve been saying for the last 3 weeks: Well, the trend has gone on a lot longer than seemed reasonable! Now, no one knows how this is going to end, or when. It’s very fashionable to point out that eventually, the market’s going to blow up in the bulls’ faces… but people have been saying that for years. So let’s take things one step at a time. The bears will eventually have their day in the sun, but we just don’t know when. One thing’s for sure though: volatility is starting to pick up, so stay on guard. The bears have been fooled time and time again, but sooner or later, they are going to bite.
Continue Reading -->Sentiment Report: 100% Happy Traders
Sentiment has been incredibly bullish since early December. It’s common for the market to top out when sentiment gets to extreme levels, but timing trades off sentiment indicators is largely a fool’s game – something made quite clear with the market’s nonstop string of record highs. Stocks just won’t break down, and the dip buyers get rewarded every time. So let’s dig into our sentiment indicators to see if traders are still feeling happy. (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bullish Three weeks ago, the VIX made several intraday lows around 9, indicating that traders expect almost no volatility. The VIX has since bounced around the 11-12 level. Now, on the surface, that may imply that traders are slightly more cautious. However, the curve of the VIX futures term structure is very, very flat. This again means that traders expect near-zero volatiltiy for the next few months. But that’s no surprise since we haven’t had a 3% pullback in about a decade! (okay, it’s not a decade, but it has been more than a year) So it’s no surprise that traders expect more of the same. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bullish The Fear & Greed Index is at 78, up from 72 last week. This index operates on a 0-100 scale, and a reading of 78 means traders are greedy (or bullish). 3) AAII Sentiment – Bullish Now this is where things get nutty. The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 45.5% of survey respondents are bullish, down from last week’s 54.1% reading. However, this number has ben elevated since December 14, indicating that individual investors have been getting more bullish over the past couple of months. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio’s latest reading is 0.56. This is well below the 0.654 long-term average. The 10-day moving average is 0.526, which is extraordinarily low on a historical basis. And the 3-day moving average, which I use to measure very short-term bullishness, is just 0.537. So it’s the same old story I’ve been telling for the past month and a half: traders are buying up call options like they’re hotcakes, and they’re not buying many puts. Of course, that’s been a great strategy because stocks have been so strong. Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 4 bullish (flat from last week) 0 neutral 0 bearish On October 6, I made the following melodramatic declaration: Let’s not mince words: the bulls are clearly insane. They think they’re destined to ride into the sunset on a magic carpet made of cold hard cash. I can see both sides of the coin here. The bulls may be insane… but they may also be right. Timing market turns based on sentiment indicators is awfully tricky. And remember, the trend can go on a lot longer than may seem reasonable. And I’ll repeat what I’ve been saying for the last 3 weeks: Well, the trend has gone on a lot longer than seemed reasonable! I can’t remember traders ever being so positive for so long without a single hiccup. When it ends, no one knows.
Continue Reading -->Sentiment Report: 100% Happy Traders
Sentiment has been incredibly bullish since early December 2017. It’s common for the market to top out when sentiment gets to extreme levels, but there’s no guarantee. And indeed, the bulls have been getting rewarded at every turn since the market just won’t break down. So let’s dig into our sentiment indicators to see if traders are still feeling happy. (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bullish Two weeks ago, the VIX made several intraday lows around 9, indicating that traders expect almost no volatility. The VIX has ticked up around 12. Now, on the surface, that may imply that traders are slightly more cautious. However, the curve of the VIX futures term structure is very, very flat. This again means that traders expect near-zero volatiltiy for the next few months. But that’s no surprise since we haven’t had a 3% pullback in about a decade! (okay, it’s not a decade, but it has been more than a year) So it’s no surprise that traders expect more of the same. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bullish The Fear & Greed Index is at 72, down slightly from 77 last week. This index operates on a 0-100 scale, and a reading of 72 means traders are moderately greedy (or bullish). So no real change here. 3) AAII Sentiment – Bullish The American Association of Individual Investors just released their latest weekly sentiment survey. 54.1% of survey respondents were bullish, which is well above the long-term average of 38.3%, and a bounce from last week’s 48.7% reading. Two weeks ago, we had a momental reading of 59.8%, which was the highest level since December 2010. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio’s latest reading is 0.56. This is well below the 0.654 long-term average. The 10-day moving average is 0.549, which is extremely low on a historical basis. And the 3-day moving average, which I use to measure very short-term bullishness, is just 0.51. So it’s the same old story: traders are buying up call options like they’re hotcakes, and they’re not buying many puts. Of course, that’s worked out beautifully for bulls because the market just won’t break down! Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 4 bullish (flat from last week) 0 neutral 0 bearish On October 6, I made the following melodramatic declaration: Let’s not mince words: the bulls are clearly insane. They think they’re destined to ride into the sunset on a magic carpet made of cold hard cash. I can see both sides of the coin here. The bulls may be insane… but they may also be right. Timing market turns based on sentiment indicators is awfully tricky. And remember, the trend can go on a lot longer than may seem reasonable. And I’ll repeat what I’ve been saying for the last 2 weeks: Well, the trend has gone on a lot longer than seemed reasonable! Again, I can’t remember seeing sentiment this positive for this long. And I have to imagine the bears are going nuts, just getting grinded out a penny at a time. Remember, picking a top based on sentiment is extremely tricky business… so tread carefully.
Continue Reading -->Sentiment Report: Pure Joy
Sentiment has been incredibly bullish since December 2017. It’s common for the market to top out when sentiment gets to extreme levels, but there’s never a guarantee. And indeed, the bulls have been rewarded with what feels like a nonstop string of record highs. So let’s dig into our sentiment indicators to see if the mood’s changed at all this week. (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bullish Last week, the VIX made several intraday lows around 9, indicating that traders expect almost no volatility. The VIX has ticked up just a bit and is hovering around 10. The 3 month spread is at 2.9, which indicates that traders are fairly bullish. But what’s really interesting is that the curve of the futures term structure is very, very flat. This again means that traders expect near-zero volatiltiy. But that’s no shocker since we’re coming off a year without a single 3% pullback. No surprise that traders expect more of the same. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bullish The Fear & Greed Index is at 77, up slightly from 74 last week. This index operates on a 0-100 scale, and a reading of 77 means traders are moderately greedy (or bullish). Last week, I was surprised Fear & Greed wasn’t higher, but it’s rebounding quickly.I’m very surprised at this — I thought it would be higher. 3) AAII Sentiment – Bullish Now this is where things get nutty. The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 48.7% of survey respondents are bullish, which is well above the long-term average of 38.3%.That was the highest level since November 13, 2014. However, it’s down from last week’s rather extreme 59.8% reading. That was the highest level since December 23, 2010! So it looks like Wednesday’s little intraday dip knocked a bit of froth out of the market. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio’s latest reading is 0.5. This is way, way below the 0.654 long-term average. The 10-day moving average is 0.563, which is also extremely low on a historical basis. And the 3-day moving average, which I use to measure very short-term bullishness, is 0.583. So the trend of traders buying tons and tons of call options relative to puts. Of course, that’s worked out great for buyers because the market just won’t break down. Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 4 bullish (flat from last week 0 neutral 0 bearish On October 6, I made the following melodramatic declaration: Let’s not mince words: the bulls are clearly insane. They think they’re destined to ride into the sunset on a magic carpet made of cold hard cash. I can see both sides of the coin here. The bulls may be insane… but they may also be right. Timing market turns based on sentiment indicators is awfully tricky. And remember, the trend can go on a lot longer than may seem reasonable. And I’ll repeat what I said in last week’s sentiment report: Well, the trend has gone on a lot longer than seemed reasonable! I can’t remember seeing sentiment this positive for this long. Of course, timing trades and determining your portfolio strategy off sentiment indicators is largely a fool’s game, so use this data as only one part of your process.
Continue Reading -->Sentiment Report: The Lunatic Fringe
Sentiment was very bullish in December 2017. But the bullishness us turning into straight-up lunacy. Don’t believe me? Just check out the numbers! (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bullish The VIX has been making intraday lows around 9 for the past 3 days, indicating that traders expect almost no volatility. The 3 month spread is at 3.6, which indicates traders are fairly bullish. But what’s really interesting is that the curve of the futures term structure is is very flat. It’s almost shocking how little volatility is being priced in for the next few months. We’re coming off a year without a single 3% pullback, so I guess traders see more of the same. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bullish The Fear & Greed Index is at 74, up from 62 last week., which is down just a bit from last week. This index operates on a 0-100 scale, and a reading of 74 means traders are moderately bullish. Last week, I was surprised Fear & Greed wasn’t higher, but it’s rebounding quickly.I’m very surprised at this — I thought it would be higher. 3) AAII Sentiment – Bullish Now this is where things get nutty. Last week, the AAII Sentiment Survey showed that 52.6% of individual investors were bullish. That was the highest level since November 13, 2014. This week, it hit 59.8%. We haven’t seen individual investors this bullish since December 23, 2010! Let’s keep in mind that the AAII sentiment number was depressed for most of 2017, averaging just 35.1%, which was under the 38.5% long-term average. For years, the permabears have been saying that retail investors are “all in.” Well, the permabears are finally correct! 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio’s latest reading is 0.5. This is way, way below the 0.654 long-term average. The 10-day moving average is 0.556, also is extremely low on a historical basis. And the 3-day moving average, which I use to measure very short-term bullishness, is 0.503. We haven’t seen a 3-day moving average this low since December 9, 2016. Traders are buying tons and tons of call options. Of course, that’s worked out great because the market just won’t break down. Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 4 bullish (up from 3 last week 0 neutral (down from 1 last week) 0 bearish (flat from last we) On October 6, I made the following melodramatic declaration: Let’s not mince words: the bulls are clearly insane. They think they’re destined to ride into the sunset on a magic carpet made of cold hard cash. I can see both sides of the coin here. The bulls may be insane… but they may also be right. Timing market turns based on sentiment indicators is awfully tricky. And remember, the trend can go on a lot longer than may seem reasonable. Well, the trend has gone on a lot longer than seemed reasonable! I can’t remember seeing sentiment this universally bullish. It feels like it’s been a decade since we’ve had a pullback, and it feels like no one expects one. That doesn’t mean the market HAS to fall… but let’s stay on guard, okay?
Continue Reading -->Sentiment Report: When Extreme Bulls Get More Bullish
The bulls are back in town. Actually, they’ve been back for 3 weeks. Let’s move to our sentiment indicators so you can see what I mean: (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bullish Late Friday morning, the VIX was as low as 9.96, which is pretty low based on historical norms. This gives us a 3-month spread at 3.00 indicating that traders are fairly bullish. But what’s really interesting is that the curve of the futures term structure is so flat. It’s almost shocking how little volatility is being priced in. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Neutral The Fear & Greed Index is at 62, which is down just a bit from last week. This index operates on a 0-100 scale, and a reading of 62 is basically neutral. I’m very surprised at this — I thought it would be higher. 3) AAII Sentiment – Bullish Now this is where things get REALLY interesting. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 52.6% of individual investors are bullish, up from 50.5% last week. This is the highest reading since November 13, 2014. Let’s keep in mind that the AAII sentiment number has been depressed all year. We’ve been hitting record highs nonstop, but this year’s average is just 35.1%. That’s below the long-term average of 38.5%. All year long, the permabears have been saying that retail investors are “all in.” Well, the permabears are finally correct! 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio’s latest reading is 0.5. This is well below the 0.655 long-term average. The 10-day moving average is 0.566, which is extremely low on a historical basis. And the 3-day moving average, which I use to measure very short-term bullishness, is 0.550 — again, very low. These numbers point to extreme bullishness among options investors, who seem to expect that we’re going to start 2018 with a big bang. Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 3 bullish (down from 4 last week 1 neutral (up from 0 last week) 0 bearish (flat from last we) On October 6, I made the following melodramatic declaration: Let’s not mince words: the bulls are clearly insane. They think they’re destined to ride into the sunset on a magic carpet made of cold hard cash. I can see both sides of the coin here. The bulls may be insane… but they may also be right. Timing market turns based on sentiment indicators is awfully tricky. And remember, the trend can go on a lot longer than may seem reasonable. That time, the bulls were right to be so positive. Will they be right again? It’s hard to tell. We typically see extreme bullish sentiment at market tops. But we’ve had extreme bullish sentiment for 3 weeks now, and the bulls shows no sign of slowing down. They love this market. Now, if you’re not sure of where to put your money in 2018, I’d check out Scott Redler’s 2018 Market Outlook Report. It includes 24 investment picks that could seriously outperform in 2018, including names in the crypto currency, tech stock, financials, and commodities spaces. Click here to read more.
Continue Reading -->Sentiment Report: Manic Panic for the Holidays
Let me get right to the point: traders are crazy bullish right now. I love to troll the bears for crying that everyone’s too bullish, but today they’re finally right. Let’s work through the numbers so you can see what I’m talking about — and I’ll give you an idea of how you can start 2018 on the right foot. (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bullish Late Friday morning, the VIX was as low as 9.35, which is extraordinarily low based on historical norms. On Wednesday, it hit 8.9, the lowest level since the 8.56 all-time low from November 24. This gives us a 3-month spread at 3.8 indicating that traders are very bullish, and expect almost no volatility heading into the final week of the year. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bullish The Fear & Greed Index is at 68, exactly flat from last week. This index operates on a 0-100 scale, and a reading of 68 is basically moderately bullish. 3) AAII Sentiment – Bullish The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 50.5% of individual investors are bullish, a big jump from last week’s 45.0% reading. This is the single highest reading of 2017. So basically, it took 11 months of nonstop grinding up to get individual investors overly excited about stocks! It’s also well above the 38.5% long-term average. All year long, the permabears have been saying that retail investors are “all in.” Well, the permabears are finally correct! 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio’s latest reading is 0.560. This is below the 0.655 long-term average. The 10-day moving average is 0.563, which is extremely low on a historical basis. And the 3-day moving average, which I use to measure very short-term bullishness, is 0.550 — again, very low. These numbers point to extreme bullishness among options investors, who seem to expect that we’re going to end the new year with a big bang above SPX 2700. Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 4 neutral (up from 3 last week) 0 neutral (down from 1 last week) 0 bearish (flat from last we) On October 6, I made the following melodramatic declaration: Let’s not mince words: the bulls are clearly insane. They think they’re destined to ride into the sunset on a magic carpet made of cold hard cash. I can see both sides of the coin here. The bulls may be insane… but they may also be right. Timing market turns based on sentiment indicators is awfully tricky. And remember, the trend can go on a lot longer than may seem reasonable. That time, the bulls were right to be so positive, because after that, all indices hit fresh all-time highs. But now I’m wondering if we’re about to see a repeat of December 2016. For the past two weeks, sentiment has been about as bullish as it gets, which incidentally, is exactly what happened last December. That resulted in a brief drawdown into the 2017 New Year, after which it was off to the races. Now, if you’re not sure of where to put your money in 2017, I’d check out Scott Redler’s 2018 Market Outlook ReportIt includes 18-22 picks that could seriously outperform in 2018, including names in the crypto currency, tech stock, financials, and commodities spaces. Heck, Scott’s even dipping his toe in precious metals! Click here to read more.
Continue Reading -->Sentiment Report: Traders Are Extra Bullish for the Holidays
Traders are squarely focused on the progress of the GOP tax bill. And judging by the market action on Friday, it certainly looks like they’re feeling that it’s going to pass soon: The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all hit fresh all-time highs The Russell 2000 is outperforming by a big margin The US dollar is rallying Bank stocks are rocking hard Gold slipped into the red. But with two weeks to go in 2017, just how bullish are traders on equities after a year of nonstop opportunities to buy the dip? Let’s take a look at our 4 primary sentiment indicators to see if traders are going gaga for stocks. (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bullish Late Friday morning, the VIX was as low as 9.51, which is very low based on historical norms. This gives us a 3-month spread at 4.18 indicating that traders are very bullish, and expect almost no volatility heading into year-end. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bullish The Fear & Greed Index is at 68. This index operates on a 0-100 scale, and a reading of 68 is basically moderately bullish. 3) AAII Sentiment – Bullish The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 45.0% of individual investors are bullish. This is the fourth highest reading of 2017, and a huge jump from last week’s 36.9% reading. It’s also well above the year-to-date average of 34.5% and the 38.5% long-term average. The long-term average is 38.5%, so a reading of 45.0% is basically fairly positive. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio’s latest reading is 0.560. This is below the 0.655 long-term average. The 10-day moving average is 0.592, which is very low on a historical basis. And the 3-day moving average, which I use to measure very short-term bullishness, is 0.560 — again very low. These numbers point to serious bullishness among options investors, who seem to expect more all-time highs into the new year. Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 4 neutral (up from 3 last week) 0 neutral (down from 1 last week) 0 bearish (flat from last we) On October 6, I made the following melodramatic declaration: Let’s not mince words: the bulls are clearly insane. They think they’re destined to ride into the sunset on a magic carpet made of cold hard cash. I can see both sides of the coin here. The bulls may be insane… but they may also be right. Timing market turns based on sentiment indicators is awfully tricky. And remember, the trend can go on a lot longer than may seem reasonable. We’re seeing similar conditions right now. Stock market sentiment is about as bullish as it gets. So I’ll repeat what I just said: the trend can go on a lot longer than may seem reasonable. The market’s higher than it was on October 6, when many permabears were calling tops because sentiment was out of control. Could the market fall from here? Or course! But timing trades off sentiment is near-impossible. We very well could see a melt-up into year-end, so look both ways before crossing this bull!
Continue Reading -->Why Is Bitcoin Moving? T3 Live Readers Sound Off!
Yesterday, we held a Bitcoin survey to get our readers’ thoughts on the raging cryptocurrency. Bitcoin mania truly is running wild. As of the time of this writing, the app for digital currency market place Coinbase is at #2 in the Apple App Store: (screenshot taken at 7:20 a.m. ET Friday) Yes, Coinbase is pulling more downloads than Instagram, Snapchat, and Facebook. So what’s moving Bitcoin? Let’s take a look at our survey results question by question. Before we get started, please understand this: This survey is very informal, and should not be considered scientific. Take the answers with a grain of salt, and certainly don’t use them to make buy/sell decisions in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies. Question #1: Have you ever traded Bitcoin or another cryptocurrency? 35.7% of survey respondents said they have traded Bitcoin or another cryptocurrency. Just 26.2% responded “no, but i want to get started.” So it seems that many traders are still fairly skeptical. Question #2: Is it too late to get into Bitcoin? 42.1% said ‘I don’t know.’ Meanwhile, just 26.3% of respondents said yes, that it is too late to get into Bitcoin. Question #3: What asset do you think will perform best in the next 5 years? Just 22% of respondents believe “Bitcoin and/or other cryptocurrencies” will perform best in the next 5 years. Interstingtly that’s exactly the same number that believe ‘Gold or other precious metals’ will perform best. 51.2% respondents believe equities will perform best. Question #4 What do you think of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies overall? This was an open-ended question that allowed readers to type in their own responses. These are some of the comments we received. All are completely unedited: Backed only by virtual numbers 0 and 1 in the computersystems it’s even more worthless than all the out of thin air printed money from the centralbanks of the world I am very skeptical of the whole crypto currency marketplace. It’s unclear to me if it is just a fad or a legitimate trading opportunity. Who is regulating this? It’s clear people are buying. Do we know if anybody is selling and cashing in on it? I have heard it is difficult to get your order executed quickly when buying. My gut feeling is that this will end in tears for many.” The Value of the underlying “Distributed Digital Ledgers” or “Blockchains” actually exceeds the value of Cryptocurrencies as mediums of exchange. Not useful yet, only a speculation vehicle at this point for people who dont trust traditional investments Good money laundering instrument, most of them are fraudulent, the danger of having the exchanges or your wallet hacked are enormous Clearly highly speculative. Very similar to internet Bubble of 2000… but ultimately the 2000 spawned off big winners and many losers. This will probably be the same. Also many losers like Mindspring were temporarily BIG winners for a short term. I still think people should get in for at least the short term. But monitor closely and also should only put in a small amount toward speculative assets. revolutionary, I prefer etherium and litecoin, because fortune 500 companies are building infrastructure around them. We also received a number of single-word answers like ‘scam’ and ‘bubble.’ One commenter said “Bitcoin to 120K,” and that may have been sarcastic. To my surprise, there were no blatant “I love Bitcoin”type responses. Question #5: What do you think is driving the price of Bitcoin? Our final question was also open-ended, and we’re presenting some of the comments we received, completely unedited: FOMO (2) Limited Supply and a lot of demand Speculation Social media (tulip-mania) Tulip power. Drug dealers, hackers mafia, terror groups Speculation and anticipation of trading on CME lack of brain combined with a lack of history knowledge idea of replacing fiat currencies Law of attraction. Think about all of the media hype and energy being put into this thing. Whether you are for it or against it… you are still thinking about it…. That is the #1 reason the price is going up and will continue to go up a lot in the very short term. Lots of Chinese buying 1/10 shares thinking when the last coin is mined, supply and demand will be their friend! Interestingly, a number of survey respondents used variants of the word Tulip in reference to Dutch Tulip mania in 1636 – 1637. When creating this survey, I assumed we’d attract more Bitcoin bulls, but we got the opposite.
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