Coffee With Greta: Retail Is a Total Mess, Thanks to Inflation

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DJIA Futures: -339 (-1.1%)

SPX Futures: -41 (-1%)

NASDAQ Futures: -124 (-1%)

Good morning friends!

Futures are falling with the S&P 500 teetering on the brink of a bear market following more disappointing retail earnings. 

Let’s get right to it!

Kohl’s Slashes Outlook

Kohl’s (KSS) shares are down 7.1% ahead of the open after missing fiscal Q1 profit expectations and slashing its full-year outlook. 

The retailer reported earnings of $0.11 per share on $3.72 billion in revenue. 

Analysts were expecting EPS of $0.70 on $3.68 billion in revenue. 

Comparable sales tumbled 5.2% year over year vs analysts’ expectations for a 0.5% increase.

Kohl’s CEO blamed the profit miss on inflation. 

“Sales considerably weakened in April as we encountered macro headwinds related to lapping last year’s stimulus and an inflationary consumer environment,” she said.

The company now expects full-year adjusted EPS between $6.45 to $6.85 vs the previous forecast for $7.00 to $7.50. 

Kohl’s also said final and fully-financed bids from potential buyers are expected in the coming weeks as it faces increased pressure to sell.

Cisco Crashes On Revenue Miss, Weak Outlook

Cisco Technologies (CSCO) shares are tumbling 11.3% in premarket trade after missing fiscal Q3 revenue expectations and calling for an unexpected sales decline in the current quarter.

The networking company reported adjusted earnings of $0.87 per share vs analysts’ expectations for $0.86. 

But revenue of $12.84 billion missed analysts’ estimates for $13.34 billion. 

Cisco’s CEO said the Ukraine war reduced revenue by $200 million, added $5 million to the cost of sales last quarter, and added $62 million in operating expenses. 

The company forecast earnings between $0.76 and $0.84 per share in fiscal Q4.

Cisco expects revenue to fall 1% to 5.5% annually this quarter.

Analysts were estimating fiscal Q4 earnings at $0.92 per share on $13.87 billion in revenue, which would be up 6% year over year.

Bath & Body Works Drops After Cutting Outlook

Bath & Body Works (BBWI) shares are dropping 7.6% ahead of the open despite beating Q1 expectations. 

The specialty retailer reporting earnings of $0.64 per share on $1.45 billion in revenue. 

That was better than analysts’ expectations for EPS of $0.53 on $1.44 billion in revenue. 

Bath & Body Works forecast full-year earnings between $3.80 and $4.15 per share vs previous guidance of between $4.30 and $4.70 per share. 

The company said that adjusted outlook reflects its “decision to accelerate investments in information technology and its customer loyalty program, as well as projected increases in inflationary pressures.”

Under Armour CEO Steps Down

Under Armour (UAA) shares are sliding 5.7% in premarket trade after announcing its president and CEO will step down. 

Patrik Frisk will leave the position effective June 1. 

Current COO Colin Browne will take over as operating CEO while the company searches for a permanent replacement. 

Frisk will also step down from the Board of Directors but will remain with Under Armour as an advisor through September 1. 

Weekly Jobless Claims Hit 4-Month High

Weekly jobless claims rose to a 4-month high. 

The Labor Department reported 218,000 Americans filed initial claims for unemployment benefits last week, up 21,000 from the previous week’s revised level. 

That was sharply higher than economists’ expectations for 200,000.

Continuing claims fell by 2,000 to 1.32 million in the week ending May 7.

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Tumbles

Manufacturing activity slowed sharply in the Philadelphia Fed region. 

The Philly Fed’s Gauge of Regional Manufacturing plunged to 2.6 in May vs 15 expected. 

That’s the lowest level of activity in two years but any reading above 0 still indicates expansion in the sector. 

The new orders index rose 4.3 points to 22.1 while the shipments index rose 16.2 points to 35.3, the highest since October 2021.

But the employment index tumbled 16 points to 25.5, dragging down the overall reading.

Respondents to the survey expect inflation to still be at 6.5% a year from now, up from the previous outlook for 5% in February.

The 6-month business outlook also slumped by 5.7 points to 2.5 in May.

Oil Prices Fall On Economic Growth Fears

Oil prices are sliding on fears of an economic slowdown in the U.S.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures are down 2.8% to $106.50 bbl while Brent crude futures are falling 1.7% to $107 bbl. 

Energy traders are growing concerned about the impact of high fuel prices on economic growth.

But the EU’s still expected ban of Russian oil imports is supporting prices from falling further. 

U.S. Gas Prices Hit 10th Straight Record-High

Average gas prices in the U.S. jumped more than 2 cents overnight .

AAA shows the national average for a gallon of regular rose to $4.589 today, a new record for the 10th straight day. 

Diesel held steady at $5.577/gal.

Existing Home Sales Expected to Fall

The National Association of Realtors reports existing home sales for April at 10:00 a.m. ET.

That report is expected to show sales fell last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.64 million units.

The housing market has suffered from high demand and low inventory over the past two years.

But buyer demand has fallen in recent months as mortgage rates jump.

In Case You Missed It

• U.S. oil inventories declined unexpectedly last week. The Energy Information Administration reported crude inventories dropped by 3.4 million barrels in the week ending May 13 vs expectations for an increase of 2.1 million barrels. The U.S. gasoline stockpile fell by 4.8 million barrels vs expectations for a 100,000 barrel decline.
• Retail stocks got rocked by weak earnings on Wednesday. Target (TGT) was the biggest loser in the sector, plummeting 24.8% after missing Q1 profit expectations. That was the largest one-day plunge for the stock since Black Monday in 1987. Walmart (WMT) shares tumbled 6.9% while Costco (COST) dropped 12.5%.
• American CEOs are expecting the Fed’s inflation battle to cause a recession. The Conference Board’s Measure of CEO Confidence tumbled 15 points in Q2 to 42. Any reading below 50 signals a negative outlook. 57% of respondents said they expect a “very short, mild recession”.