The Morning Hammer: Trump Wins, Trump Wins


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May you live in interesting times…
-English expression of what may be a Chinese curse

I've been saying that we couldn't count out Donald Trump until the final vote was tallied, and lo and behold, he pulled it off.

If you're interested in learning why Trump won, I recommend watching this video — there is a good case to be made that Trump's persuasion skills put him over the top.

But let's focus on the market.

First things first… what's going on with the Mexican Peso?

Well, it's down -9% — making a far bigger move than it did on the Brexit.

The iShares Mexico ETF (EWW) is down -11%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -1.9%.

The yen is up 1.7% vs. USD.

The Nikkei is down -5.4%.

SPX futures are down -2.1% with NDX futures off -2.4%.

Meanwhile, biotech is flying! IBB is up a quick $15. Clinton has been critical of drug company pricing practices, and Trump's victory means the pressure is off.

It was pricing in a $10 move, so that's a pretty spectacular rally.

The VIX is up 7.3%.

Gold is up 2.4%.

You get the point…

The big question now is whether this is a repeat of the Brexit action, meaning a massive volatility spike that looks like blip on the radar in a few months.

I suspect we're going to see a very interesting open.

A lot of individual investors may look to dump quickly, and odds are we're going to see a huge put option demand.

I'd watch the ISE Sentiment Index. The first reading will be out at 10:10 a.m. ET.

The 10 day moving average was at 72 (72 calls for every 100 puts), which is actually lower than what we saw at the February lows.

I suspect we'll get a sub-30 open, good enough to push the 10 dma under 70, which means serious, serious bearishness.

Good luck out there.