The Morning Hammer: The Deutsche Bounce

Deutsche Bank (DB) is bouncing this morning after agreeing to sell its UK insurance unit.

But more importantly, CEO John Cryan said the bank will not require a capital raise. DB is facing a $14 billion bill from the US Department of Justice, which has raised fears about liquidity problems.

But for now, traders are taking the worst-case scenario off the table, which is helping European stocks.

The DAX is up 1.0% with German banks up 1.4%.

ECB President Mario Draghi is expected to speak to reporters around 4:00 p.m., and he's likely to comment on monetary policy and the European economy.

Crude oil is turning higher today after Saudi Arabia may compromise with Iran on a future supply agreement.

OPEC is meeting in Algiers so odds are we'll see fresh oil headlines in the near future.

Nike (NKE) beat on earnings but reported weak future orders and missed on gross margins. Odds are this is a competitive issue rather than an economic one, since Adidas beat and UnderArmour (UA) is also coming on strong.

We could be in for a big 3 days.

Traders are split 50-50 as to whether the Fed moves in December.

We've seen a big slide down in US economic data strength since late June, and we've got some big numbers coming out through the end of the week:

Today: Durable Goods, plus Fed Chair Yellen testifies before a House Panel
Thursday: GDP, Pending Home Sales
Friday: Personal Income/Spending, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI

Now if we see a string of misses, we could see big rips in gold and US Treasuries, because traders may assume the Fed will have to continue to back off.

But keep in mind that the converse is true: if we see some big beats, maybe traders will seriously buy into rate hikes.

Again, the market is split 50-50 on December. So while the talking heads insist the Fed is hawkish, the market is not exactly full of true believers.

SPX futures are basically flat… hopefully not for long.