The Morning Hammer: Let’s Go Super Mario!
Crude oil is up 1.7% this morning after the American Petroleum Institute reported a massive 12 million barrel drop in crude stocks.
I'd have thought oil would be up even more on that massive numbers, but there are likely 2 factors at play:
1) The E.I.A. numbers hit at 10:30 a.m. ET, and traders may want confirmation. (consensus here is +905K, but the huge API drop would imply that traders expect the E.I.A. numbers to also show a drop.
2) The question of whether OPEC will freeze or cut output at the big meeting in Algiers is a mystery. Iran said it's too early to discuss a freeze, while Iraq said it coudl support one.
Good luck sorting out the confusing and contradictory news flow, which is very reminiscent of what we saw in the lead-up to the June OPEC meeting, which ended with no change in policy.
So let's lump OPEC in with the Fed — there is just no telling what's next!
SPX futures are flat as an ironing board, which is no surprise given that we haven't had a 1% move in the index since July 8.
Traders are complacent… or they're falling asleep.
So far, it looks like we have 1 chance for excitement today — Mario Draghi's press conference at 8:30 a.m. ET this morning.
The ECB rate decision hits at 7:45 a.m. ET, and odds are nothing changes there.
Twitter (TWTR) is off a little after CNBC reported that there are “no bids on the table.”
Twitter is starting to remind me of the old Research In Motion (RIMM) (now known as BBRY) — I can't go 10 minutes without hearing a made-up takeover rumors.
Supermarket chain Supervalue (SVU) lowered guidance due to competition and deflation — exactly what we heard from Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) yesterday.
Wells Fargo (WFC) downgraded Apple (AAPL) following yesterday's product launch event, saying the positives are priced in and shares are likely to remain range-bound.
Apple is quickly recovering pre-market losses though and is nearly back to flat.
Citi is recommending overweighting Russian stocks, saying dividends may increase — though Russia just seems like part of the oil trade.
Yesterday afternoon, Reuters reported that GW Pharma (GWPH) hired advisers after being approached by potential buyers. Cantor is out saying it could be worth $165/share. It's off a few bucks in premarket trading.
The GWPH chatter pushed biotech up hard into the close yesterday — I wonder if there's any follow-through today.
Good luck out there!
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