Morning Hammer: 40 Days and 40 Nights


Join This Week’s Training Sessions! They’re FREE!

Tuesday 9/6: Day and Swing Trading Signals You Need to Know

Thursday 9/8: How to Start Trading Forex Like a Pro


Labor Day was not a cure for the summer snoozefest.

SPX futures are flat as an ironing board as we come off 40 trading days without a 1% move in the S&P 500.

And it's been 48 days since the last 1% down day, which happened on June 27 after the Brexit.

Overnight, German factory orders missed, while Swiss GDP and euro-area exports strengthened.

Australia's central bank held steady on interest rates as expected.

Europe is slightly green, though it may remain in a holding pattern until the ECB rate decision on Thursday.

Crude oil popped yesterday on news that Saudi Arabia would make a “significant” statement on the oil market.

However, they did not announce any changes to output.

Iran said it will support efforts to stabilize markets, but will not necessarily participate in a coordinated production freeze.

Saudi Arabia's energy minister also said there is no need to freeze output just yet.

Gold is extending Friday's gains on the slightly weaker-than-expected NFP report. Market perception of Fed rate hikes haven't changed as much — this looks more like a relief rally after a hard decline.

Traders are pricing in a 59% chance of a December rate hike, which isn't much of a chance from Friday's 60%-ish levels.

In deal news, pipeline/storage giant Enbride (ENB) is buying Spectra Energy (SE) in a $28 billion transaction, creating the largest MLP in North America.

On today's economic calendar, we have the Labor Market Conditions Index and ISM Services numbers on tap. The Fed's Williams (non-voter) will be speaking at 9:15 p.m. ET.

Things don't really pick up until next week, when we have retail sales and CPI.

One trend worth watching is the degradation of US economic data starting with the weak GDP report in late July.

Check out this chart of the Citi US Economic Surprise Index, which measures economic data strength relative to market expectations:

It's clearly sliding lower.

The Fed always calls itself “data dependent,” which gives them a convenient back door.

If the data continues to slip, maybe folks will start pricing in a smaller chance of a rate hike, or at least become convinced that the Fed is one and done.

P.S. Check out our FREE webinars and learn from our top traders!