August NFP Report Instant Analysis: Did the Fed Fool Us Again?

Oh man, did we just get fooled by the Fed again?

Fed heads have been selling a super-hawkish narrative for weeks but today's job report was just a little bit shaky.

The 151K headline number missed expectations by 29K.

And perhaps most importantly, average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% month-over-month, missing the 0.2% consensus.

We're seeing a predictable reaction: gold is ripping, up almost 1%, and the gold miners (GDX) are up 4.5%.

Meanwhile, the US dollar is sagging and Treasuries are up.

SPX futures are now about 10 handles off morning lows. I'd have though they'd sag on the report because markets have acted as if they'd welcome a rate hike.

Fed funds futures are now pricing in a 58% chance of a December rate hike, down from 60% earlier today — that's not much of a change.

Remember, the Fed doesn't make decisions based on a single data point, so let's not go overboard.

And of course, keep in mind that we often see multiple market reactions and counter-reactions on NFP days.

We've already seen crude oil round-trip its reaction move and start yet another move:

We could see ANYTHING by the close today… even actual volatility.

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