T3’s Take 3: Bears Fail Ahead of Pivotal Jobs Report
1) Jobs in Focus
The nonfarm payrolls report is always one of the biggest events of the month, and with traders thinking the Fed is about to raise rates, tomorrow’s August report is no exception.
Today, the US dollar fell on profit-taking following weaker-than-expected Markit US Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing, and Construction Spending numbers.
But it’s been had a nice bounce since the Fed hawks came out in force to prepare the market for additional rate hikes.
So presumably, traders are gearing up for a repeat of the big July jobs report, which was an impressive across-the-board beat.
2) The Bears Fail in Spectacular Fashion.
The S&P 500 fell 0.6% to 2157.09 in early trading and the VIX popped 8.9% to 14.61.
That had a lot of folks — myself included — thinking the S&P would have its first 1% down day since June 27.
However, that small dip was quickly bought and the index climbed up to finish flat on the day.
Biotechnology overcame an early deficit to turn green, and we also saw rebounds in large cap tech and transports.
Regional banks led the decliners column, and energy was weak due to another drop in oil prices.
3) Jeff Cooper on Twitter
Twitter (TWTR) has been one of the hottest stocks in the market, and today, Jeff Cooper stepped in to break down the action:
TWTR continues be on the prowl into the weekend on great expectations of something going on.
This morning it Pinocchioed the 20 strike which perpetuated some selling and a pullback to yesterday's highs coincident with the 20 period on the 10 min as anticipated in yesterday's note.
Note how this morning's spike occurred out of an hourly bull flag following yesterday's surge.
Friday's Trading Calendar
US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)
08:30 Trade Balance (Jul): exp. -$41.4b, prior -$44.5b
08:30 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug): exp. 180k, prior 255k
08:30 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision (Aug): prior 18k
08:30 Change in Private Payrolls (Aug): exp. 180k ,prior 217k
08:30 Change in Manufact. Payrolls (Aug): exp. -3k, prior 9k
08:30 Unemployment Rate (Aug): exp. 4.80%, prior 4.90%
08:30 Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Aug): exp. 0.20%, prior 0.30%
08:30 Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Aug): exp. 2.50%, prior 2.60%
08:30 Average Weekly Hours All Employees (Aug): exp. 34.5, prior 34.5
08:30 Change in Household Employment (Aug): prior 420
08:30 Labor Force Participation Rate (Aug): prior 62.80%
08:30 Underemployment Rate (Aug): prior 9.70%
09:45 ISM New York (Aug): prior 60.7
10:00 Factory Orders (Jul): exp. 2.00%, prior -1.50%
10:00 Factory Orders Ex Trans (Jul): prior 0.40%
10:00 Durable Goods Orders (Jul F): exp. 4.40%, prior 4.40%
10:00 Durables Ex Transportation (Jul F): exp. 1.50%, prior 1.50%
10:00 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (Jul F): prior 1.60%
10:00 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (Jul F): prior -0.40%
13:00 Fed's Lacker Speaks on Interest Rate Benchmarks in Richmond
13:00 Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count (9/2): prior 489
13:00 Baker Hughes U.S. Rotary Gas Rigs (9/2): prior 81
13:00 Baker Hughes U.S. Rotary Oil Rigs (9/2): prior 406
Global Economics
03:00 EUR Spanish Unemployment Change
04:30 GBP Construction PMI
08:30 CAD Trade Balance
Earnings
Before Open:
None of Significance
After Close:
None of Significance
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