The Apple Bounce, and 4 Other Things I’m Watching

1) Apple Bounces

Apple (AAPL) is down but well off its morning low, which was driven by the EU tax ruling.

The final verdict is unknown, but even in the worst case scenario, Apple may not feel a thing from a financial standpoint.

The real significance, however, is seen in other tech names who have Ireland tax exposure: Facebook (FB) and Google (GOOGL) are off today.

But for now this seems more like an excuse to take profits rather than an end-of-world scenario.

An excuse may be enough though…

2) Crude Oil

Crude oil is pretty weak today ahead of inventory numbers from the API (reported after the close today) and the EIA (tomorrow morning).

Iraq will support an output freeze at next month's OPEC meeting in Algeria, according to Prime Minister Abadi.

However, what OPEC actually will do remains a mystery. A lot of traders got stung by OPEC's failure to freeze production in June, and some folks are justifiably afraid of a repeat.

3) Biotech

Biotech (IBB) is pretty listless today.

I regularly harp on biotech's importance to any serious bull move, but it does feel like it's getting worn out.

Check out the chart  — IBB lost the 20 day and the 50 is coming up fast.

4) The Hawk Trade

The big hawk trade is still going as Fed rate hike expectations have increased quite a bitver the past month.

Gold is getting roughed up and the dollar's in full rip mode.

Active stock traders should be watching the Regional Banks ETF (KRE).

It's not nearly as followed as XLF, but it moves a heck of a lot more.

5) Dove Soup 

And on the flip side, the dove trades (utilities, Treasuries, housing) are coming under pressure.

Like Jeff Cooper, I'm closely watching the junior gold miners (GDXJ).

They're still up 131% YTD, so if gold keeps flopping, the miners have an awful lot of room to drop.

However, just be aware that these trades really can go anywhere. At the Brexit, traders were pricing in basically zero chance of a rate hike.

Now they see 60% odds.

Any big shifts in the broader markets or economic data could shake things up.