The Morning Hammer: Something’s Gotta Give!

Don’t Fear Forex…

European markets are up this morning on solid economic data.

Euro area PMI rose to 53.3 in August from 53.3, which implies little impact from the Brexit.

France's was better than expected, while Germany's was a little weaker.

On the US economic calendar, we've got the Markit US manufacturing PMI, Richmond Fed, and New Home Sales.

Best Buy (BBY) beat by a mile and is up 14%, extending what's generally been a pretty decent earnings season for big box retailers.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Montreal (BOM) beat on strong retail banking activity.

SPX futures are in modestly positive territory following yesterday's yawnfest.

Biotech is indicated higher following massive outperformance on the back of the Pfizer (PFE)/Medivation (MDVN) deal.

Bloomberg is reporting that Bayer and Monsanto (MON) are closer to closing their deal, which has been stuck on issues like the price and termination fee.

Crude oil is down again this morning after Iraq's Oil Minister asked foreign oil companies to increase oil production and exports.

The dollar is down after making solid gains on hawkish comments from the Fed's Fischer and other officials. Some traders may be taking their feet off the gas ahead of FOMC Chair Janet Yellen's Jackson Hole speech this Friday.

I'm not in the business of trying to game the Fed, so I'll just point out that in June, Yellen came out dovish after a barrage of hawkish comments from Fed officials.

So please, tread carefully.

Otherwise, we're back to the same old grind. The action's been so lame that it makes the April-May lull look like a firestorm in comparison.

I am long VIX calls and I'm sitting on a loss of about 8%.

That's not the end of the world, but now I'm in that no man's land where I'm worried about getting shaken out at the worst possible moment.

But I'm going to stick it out for now.

Arguing with the market is for fools, but we've gone 31 days without a 1% move. And we've gone 39 days without a 1% down move.

Something's gotta give.

Right?

P.S. Don’t forget to sign up for Kurt Capra’s free forex trading event!

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