T3’s Take 3: The Bull Just Keeps on Grindin’


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1) Hot Oil!

Crude oil was weak in the early going, but shot up intraday after Reuters reported that Iran may support a production freeze at the September OPEC meeting.

Oil has been seeing some minor profit-taking on speculation that OPEC may disappoint the market by keeping production unchanged.

The push up in oil helped energy stocks outperform, and the S&P Energy ETF (XLE) rose 0.7%.

Oil service stocks were also decent, with the Vaneck Vectors Oil Service ETF (OIH) up 0.5%.

2) 31 Days of Nothing

We’ve now gone 31 days without 1% move in the S&P 500 as the index continued its slow upward grind with a 0.2% rally to 2186.90.

Traders were encouraged by solid European economic data and the aforementioned oil rally.

Housing stocks were up big on strong earnings from Toll Brothers (TOL) and impressive US New Home Sales, which are at a multi-year high.

Biotechnology and pharmaceutical names also outperformed for the second straight day, and regional banks were up nicely as Treasury yields rose.

Gold miners were in the decliners’ column on a slump in gold prices.

3) Second Term Parallels

Today, my colleague Jeff Cooper pointed out that the market fell hard at the end of Presidents’ Bill Clinton and George W. Bush’s second terms:

The market rallied into September 1, 2000 as Clinton’s second term was coming to a close, and then dropped 41.5% into its November low.

The market topped on August 15, 2008 as Bush’s second term was ending, and lost 48.4% going into a November low.

Continue reading…

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Wednesday’s Trading Calendar

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications (8/19): prior -4.00%
09:00 House Price Purchase Index QoQ (2Q): prior 1.30%
09:00 FHFA House Price Index MoM (Jun): exp. 0.30%, prior 0.20%
10:00 Existing Home Sales (Jul): exp. 5.51m, prior 5.57m
10:00 Existing Home Sales MoM (Jul): exp. -1.20%, prior 1.10%
10:30 DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (8/19): exp. -850k, prior -2508k
10:30 DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (8/19): exp. -300k, prior -724k
10:30 DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (8/19): exp. -1700k, prior -2724k
10:30 DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (8/19): exp. 500k, prior 1939k
10:30 DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization (8/19): exp. -0.55%, prior 1.30%
10:30 DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand (8/19): prior 17148
10:30 DOE Gasoline Implied Demand (8/19): prior 10216.4
10:30 DOE Distillate Implied Demand (8/19): prior 4754

Global Economics

04:30 GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals


Before Open:

Express Inc (EXPR)

After Close:

HP Inc (HPQ)
Williams-Sonoma (WSM)
Workday Inc (WDAY)