The Morning Hammer: The Broken Record Market


Don't Fear Forex…

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SPX futures are taking a small hit today as oil pulls back and the dollar keeps rising on Fed rate hike speculation.

Morgan Stanley and Barclays both issues notes stating that crude prices would correct.

There is also growing doubt that OPEC will institute a production freeze or cut at its September meeting.

As I pointed out last week, oil ran up big into the June OPEC meeting on speculation of an output freeze. OPEC did nothing, and oil topped out shortly thereafter.

It seems like folks are finally starting to remember that.

On Sunday, Fed vice-chairman Stanley Fischer said the US economy was closing to hitting full employment and the Fed's 2% inflation goal.

Right now, traders are pricing in a 51% chance of a December rate hike, so markets are split right down the middle. We may get some clarity with FOMC Chair Janet Yellen's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.

But I'd like to put an emphasis on the word MAY. Don't forget that many Fed Heads came out hawkish ahead of the June meeting, only to be surprised by a dovish statement.

The US economic calendar is pretty light — we just have the Chicago Fed National Activity Index hitting at 8:30 a.m. ET.

At 12:00 p.m., German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Francois Hollande, and Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi will hold a press conference on the state of the European Union.

On the deal front, Pfizer (PFE) is buying cancer drug maker Medivation (MDVN) for $14 billion. Reuters reported that several other players including Gilead (GILD) and Merck (MRK) were interested in Medivation.

And a US security panel approved ChemChina's $43 billion takeover of pesticide/seed giant Syngenta (SYT).

The VIX is up 13%, which implies some more tension on the tape, but the bears still need to deliver some real downside follow-through to provide a real scare.

We've gone 30 trading days without a 1% move in the SPX.

I've got my fingers crossed that we're finally passing this stretch of boredom, but I'm not holding my breath.

P.S. Don't forget to sign up for Kurt Capra's free forex trading event!