T3’s Take 3: Strong Oil Means More Bull Action
1) Crude Oil Booms
Crude oil surged over $43 today in an extension of the rally off the August 2 lows.
Saudi Arabia’s energy minister said that next month’s OPEC meeting in Algiers could include plans to stabilize the oil market.
Plus, the International Energy Agency said that demand from refiners will help the global oil market rebalance this year, which quieted fears about record oil production in Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations.
This news had traders forgetting about this week’s bearish US oil inventory reports, and energy stocks rallied with a vengeance today, with oil service names especially strong.
The Vaneck Vectors Oil Services ETF (OIH) rose 1.4% to $28.51 today.
2) Stocks Bounce
Stocks responded well to the oil price surge, and the S&P 500 rose 0.5%
to 2185.79, setting an all-time intraday high at 2188.14
The solid stock action had the VIX continuing its dip from yesterday’s 12.50 intraday high.
Retail stocks got a nice bump on strong earnings from Macy’s (M) andKohl's (KSS), while biotechnology (IBB) rebounded from a weak open to rise 1.1% to $291.91.
The US dollar and Treasury yields rose today, putting pressure on bonds, and the real estate and utility stocks.
3) Jeff Cooper on the SPX
This morning, my buddy Jeff Cooper issued a report with in-depth analysis of the SPX, saying the following:
The SPX is either topping just below 2200 or is going to run to 2290 ish into the end of August/early September. Youse puts up ya money, yousetakes ya chances.
Although the market does its diabolical best to misdirect players, it should be easy to see which one once Mr. Market shows its hand –probably over the next 2 to 3 days.
We have had two quick downdrafts since last August. I suspect there could be 2 to 3 air pockets between August and October if the above Gann symmetry plays out — despite The Hand unleashing a swarm of V’s since last summer.
Click here for the full report
Friday’s Trading Calendar
US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)
08:30 Retail Sales Advance MoM (Jul): exp. 0.40% , prior 0.60%
08:30 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM (Jul): exp. 0.10% , prior 0.70%
08:30 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas (Jul): exp. 0.30% , prior 0.70%
08:30 Retail Sales Control Group (Jul): exp. 0.30% , prior 0.50%
08:30 PPI Final Demand MoM (Jul): exp. 0.10% , prior 0.50%
08:30 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Jul): exp. 0.20% , prior 0.40%
08:30 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM (Jul): exp. 0.20% , prior 0.30%
08:30 PPI Final Demand YoY (Jul): exp. 0.20% , prior 0.30%
08:30 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Jul): exp. 1.20% , prior 1.30%
08:30 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY (Jul): exp. , prior 0.90%
10:00 Business Inventories (Jun): exp. 0.10% , prior 0.20%
10:00 U. of Mich. Sentiment (Aug P): exp. 91.5 , prior 90
10:00 U. of Mich. Current Conditions (Aug P): exp. 109.5 , prior 109
10:00 U. of Mich. Expectations (Aug P): exp. 80 , prior 77.8
10:00 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation (Aug P): prior 2.70%
10:00 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation (Aug P): prior 2.60%
13:00 Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count (8/12): prior 464
13:00 Baker Hughes U.S. Rotary Gas Rigs (8/12): prior 81
13:00 Baker Hughes U.S. Rotary Oil Rigs (8/12): prior 381
Global Economics
02:00 EUR German Prelim GDP q/q
05:00 Flash GDP q/q
Earnings
Before the Open:
J C Penny Co. (JCP)
After the Close:
None of significance
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