The market really feels like it's out of gas, but lo and behold, the SPX is within a few point of hitting a new all-time high for the 6th day in a row.
So let's take a deep dive into the action and see if the bears are ready to take the lead.
The action is a bit mixed below the surface, but the bulls appear to have a slight edge.
Here's where they're winning:
-The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are outperforming.
–Apple (AAPL) just cracked through $100 for the first time since late May.
–Bank of America (BAC) is having a beautiful little grind up post-earnings.
–HYG/JNK are green.
-The VIX dropped back down.
-XBI is RIPPING off morning lows which should scare the bears.
-The yen is dropping again.
But on the bear side:
–Regional banks (KRE) can't catch a bid.
-Gilead (GILD) is getting no love despite a positive story in Barron's
-Crude oil is trading horribly, though the stocks aren't doing as bad as you'd think. I'm really surprised HYG is green.
-The CBOE equity put-call ratio is 0.72, indicating that traders are somewhat complacent.*
-The ISE Sentiment Index is at 146, again indicating that traders are somewhat complacent.*
*I use the “somewhat complacent” monicker because these measures are extremely volatile day-to-day.
So the big 2 questions today are:
1) Will we get that elusive 6th straight all-time high in a row?
2) If we do get it, do we hold up?
We're less than 2 points away from going 6 for 6, so a big buy of Apple shares could put us over the top.
And the yen weakness and biotech rebound are helping sentiment in a big way.
But that's where it gets tricky.
The consensus thinking seems to be that we have to pull back since things feel so overheated, and sometimes, that means the move's going to go on a little longer.
Remember Mr. Market's 2 rules:
1) Frustrate as many traders at any given time as possible.
2) Let trends run much further than most people think seems reasonable.
So if the crowd thinks we go down, maybe we'll just keep on going.
I'm still watching biotech for confirmation of this move.
And right now, XBI is saying we get that new record high.
As for the aftermath, see if the biotechs hold or fold.
Keep an eye out on the oil complex too.
It's not uncommon for oil to lead equity moves, and traders may start paying attention to crude's big dip today.
I think we go flat to slightly down within the next week. I'm thinking we get stuck in the the 2140-2180 range, and then maybe the lower end of the range pushes down to 2100 for some bounce-around action in the 2100-2180 area.