How Healthy is the Market’s Long-Term Trend?
Ryan Tonking | Black Room LessonsWe are certainly seeing interesting times in the market! In today’s video, we’ll look at the health of the long-term trend in the market. I’ll show you were I think that we have some opportunity to the up side, and were I am looking to get out if I am wrong. After you finish the video, click here for our 90%-off Cyber Monday deals.
Continue Reading -->How to Use the 20 Day Moving Average
Sami Abusaad | Black Room LessonsToday’s lesson is about the mighty 20 period moving average. Rarely has a simple tool as the 20ma make such a huge difference in my trading! It represents the core of my focus for intraday and swing trades. In my view, there is no tool more accurate and reliable. Learn it!
Continue Reading -->BONUS! Today’s Redler All-Access Newsletter & Morning Call Video (plus 90% discount…)
As a bonus for T3 Live subscribers, we are publishing Scott Redler’s Morning Note newsletter and Morning Note Video so you can see his attack plan for today. After you read the note, check out our Cyber Monday sale – you can save 90% on your first month of Redler All Access, which includes the Morning Note newsletter, Morning Call Video, Daily Recap video, and Private Twitter feed. Regular price is $129, but with this deal, your first month is just $12.90. (for first-time subscribers only – past subscribers will be charged full price) Click here for more info ****** Holiday Surprise – November 26, 2018 Today’s Morning Call Video: We have mostly green arrows around the world as we enter the last real important week of 2018. Europe is broadly higher as Italy makes a few concessions and the EU gives the Brexit an okay. The DAX is +1.1% with the CAC +1.2% and FTSE +1.0%. Asia has green arrows. The Hang Seng is up 1.7%, reclaiming the 50 day. SPX futures are up 30 on optimism that Powell will have a more dovish tone Wednesday, and that the G-20 will bring some type of trade ceasefire. It was hard to see this type of big up open coming since the market was down last even though it usually has an upside bias around Thanksgiving. But, we are getting used to harder setups, so we’ll deal with it. last week the market was down every day in what usually has an upside bias. We are getting used to harder setups, so we’ll deal with it. Today, we’ll see how much of today’s gap holds, and then judge the action moving forward. Do we get a gap and go and close on the highs today? Or do the highs happen in the first 30-60 minutes. We’ll be ready for whatever happens. Last week, 2630 held, which is above the 2603 October low. Will today be potent and ignite a double bottom type? Or will things look lethargic and get sold? Resistance is the 2670 area, and then 2705ish. SPY put in a low Friday at $263.07. We’ll see how much of today’s opening gap holds. Pivot resistance is in the $267 area, then $269.40. Tech was a headwind for the past few weeks but showed a few glimmers last week. The QQQ’s put in a low at $159.09 Friday. See if it holds $160.84 and builds. And let’s see if AAPL gets rejected at the $175.50-$176 resistance area, or if it reclaims that with authority. Small caps got very close to major support and broke the October lows. IWM’s low from Friday was $146.81. Resistance is in the $150.50-$151. Banks aren’t special either. GS made new October lows way before the others with yields coming in a bit. It made a low of $188.94 Friday. See if it holds up or goes red. Pivot resistance is $191.87. JPM is usually the strongest name but no one is in a rush to buy strength. It was sold last week. Friday’s low was in the $106 area. Now see how it handles $107.40 pivot resistance. Oil got hit hard from $75 to $55 and then broke lower again. It’s up a little this morning but not by much. USO broke $11.62 and then hit a low Friday at $10.69. It’s very oversold but very broken. XLE broke the October lows and hit $63.44 Friday. Pivot resistance is $64.57, then $65.32. The Go To List has been good for two-way action, but they have trended lower with most names below the 8/21/50/100/200 day. Some are worse than others. But we do get trades based on the setup and open. Today’s big gap open isn’t the best scenario for us. A big down open could have been easier. Now we need to see if if the strength fades or if we rally into bigger resistance. They’ve come a long way down, so shorting too early could hurt. But they are also so broken that it’s hard to buy strength. We’ll be patient. AAPL was the weakest last week. It broke below $185.93 and hit a low of $172.10 Friday. Now see if it reclaims or gets rejected at the $175.50-$176 area. If it reclaims it with force, it can see the $180-$181.47 gap area this week. A down open would have been easier. AMZN held up a little better than some other F.A.N.G.-type names. However, it closed on the lows Friday. Now see if it gets rejected around the $1546-$1553 resistance area. Or does it get reclaimed for more upside towards $1600? NFLX isn’t special. Barron’s says it’s not worth buying yet. But it can bounce towards $271-$275 before it sees resistance. NVDA gave us a nice tradable setup last Tuesday as it went green first. It has pivot resistance at $155, then the real zone is $161-$163. FB has been hit the hardest the off highs. It gave us a trade last Tuesday. Barron’s thinks it has a good-risk reward down here. It has pivot resistance at $134.50. Then $137 is bigger resistance. TWTR tried to be somewhat constructive post-earnings, but tech was too weak. It needs time and there’s no real pattern. The $32 area needs to be reclaimed with some force as a step in the right direction. GOOGL: Barron’s said the risk-reward down here is good. But it needs a lot of work to get better. Pivot resistance is $1143. See if it stays above that. If so, bigger resistance is near $1165. SQ was one of the first names to put its low last Tuesday. It held above it Friday. It will test the 200 day before a few other names. See if it reclaims it or gets rejected there near $66. TSLA tried to act special until it did a Red Dog Reversal around the $357 pivot on 11/19. Then it hit a low of $325.55 Friday. It’s just a trade like everything else now. Pivot resistance
Continue Reading -->Sami’s Swing Trading Blueprint – Nov. 26 – 30
Sami Abusaad | Strategic Swing TraderThis video provides an analysis of the current market environment as well as a review of several swing ideas for next week. After you finish the video, click here for our 90%-off Cyber Monday deals.
Continue Reading -->90% Options Win on NVDA: Why I Went Long and Short at the Same Time
Most options traders have a limited mindset. They simply use options as substitutes for stock. But if you understand some basic options concepts, you can speculate on the single most important element in options – volatility. You’re about to see how we did it for a 90% overnight gain in NVDA: This is obviously not a typical trade — but there are lessons to be learned, so it’s worth going over. Raise your hand if you had an opinion on NVDA going into earnings last Thursday. You’re not alone! Now, it seems like most traders only considered two scenarios: NVDA beats and stock rallies hard NVDA misses and the stock collapses Here’s the problem with that limited mentality: it completely misses a major benefit of options: that you don’t have to be right about a stock’s direction to make money. In fact, the highest-probability strategy for NVDA was focusing on whether it would move big — NOT merely whether it would move up or down. Capitalizing on volatility — or the size of a stock’s move — with options is nothing new. The real challenge is: Figuring out when to use them Picking the right contracts With Options In Play, I constantly screen for setups that can make money from increases in volatility. Heading into its earnings report on Thursday, the market was pricing in about a $20 move in NVDA. But my research showed the potential for a much bigger move than that. In other words, NVDA options were too cheap. NVDA had broken down sharply in October, losing the bottom of its 2-year aggressive uptrend. Also, tech sector volatility was expanding, semi stocks were moving huge after earnings, and NVDA’s average daily trading range was larger than normal. And key areas of resistance and support were nearly $25 – $30 points away in either direction. The market was missing all this, creating an opportunity to use a strangle to capitalize on the underpriced options. The Options in Play newsletter put together the following trades: A Dec21 $225/$240/$255 call butterfly Dec07 $175 – $165 put spread In plain English, we went long AND short NVDA at the same time. We were speculating that one side of the trade would lose, with the other side winning big enough to leave a profit. (we teach trades like this in Options in Play) This got us in for just $3.42. And after the company issued ugly guidance, the stock cratered to send the put spread deep in the money. The put spread shot up to $6.50 for an overnight gain of around 90% on the overall strategy. The call butterfly lost all its value, but the put spread gained more than enough to leave a nice gain. And it was fast. The trade was initiated on Thursday afternoon, and closed in the first 15 minutes of trading on Friday. Volatility is back and it’s not going anywhere. And if you are not looking to capitalize on crazy swings in stocks, you are missing the boat. And don’t be intimidated by these types of strategies – we specialize in risk-defined trades so we know exactly what the potential downside of any trade may be. Volatility is back and it’s not going away anytime soon. Capitalizing on crazy swings doesn’t mean you have to have crazy risk. Options are a fantastic tool in a fast moving market and it’s time you put their power to work! In a fast market, options should be in your arsenal. If you want my help in putting them to work for you, check out a trial to Options in Play. Daniel Darrow’s Positions as of 4:00 p.m. ET on 11/19/2018:
Continue Reading -->Chef Scott Redler Shares His Secret Turkey Recipe
Family + friends + food + football + fitness (say that 10 times quick!) makes Thanksgiving one of my favorite holidays. And believe it or not, I’m pretty handy in the kitchen. I cook like I trade, and I trade like I cook. I keep things simple, and I go with what works. I’ve been using this turkey recipe since my parents moved to Florida 14 years ago, and it’s what I’ll be serving my family on Thursday afternoon. Ingredients List Turkey 3-4 long celery sticks 2 sticks of butter 2 oranges 3-4 lemons 2 sticks of butter 4 whole onions 3 big hunks of garlic Salt Pepper Paprika Ms. Dash seasoning 1 can of pineapples 1 jar of orange or apricot jam The quantity of ingredients depends on the size of your turkey. Just scale up or down as you see fit. We usually get a frozen 20-pounder. And oh yeah — make sure you have a quality knife! It will make your life a lot easier. I’ll take the bird out of the freezer Monday morning so it will be defrosted by Wednesday evening, when I do my prep work. You know me. Whether I’m trading, running, or cooking, I never show up for battle unprepared. If you start getting things ready before Thanksgiving, you’ll get better results with less stress on Thanksgiving… just like in trading! I’ll dice up 4 whole onions and 3 big hunks of garlic, and toss them in a large bowl. I then add salt, pepper, paprika, some Mrs. Dash seasoning, and mix it all up. Then, I’ll stuff it into the turkey. I’ll also put half a can of pineapples in there, and jam a stick of butter right in the middle of all. Then, I pour some orange juice and lemon juice over the turkey skin — just enough to get it wet. In a separate bowl, I’ll mix up more salt, pepper, and paprika for the skin. I spread it all over, making sure to get in all the nooks and crevices. Don’t be cheap! Then, I’ll wrap the turkey in a big bag and leave it in the refrigerator overnight. On Thanksgiving morning, I’ll cut a few long celery sticks in half and put them on the bottom of the pan. Then, I take the turkey out of the bag and place it on the pan. There will be a lot of juice in the bag. Transfer it to the bottom of the pan, and be careful not to spill any. It’s a real pain to clean up! Then I’ll mix up more salt, pepper, and paprika, and sprinkle it on top of the turkey. Now it’s time to stick the bird in the oven. After an hour, start basting it every 15-20 minutes. Take juices from the cavity and squeeze it on top of the turkey. Also, rotate the pan every hour or so. It should take about 4 hours to cook. Just follow what your meat thermometer says. When there is about 20 minutes to go, pour a jar of orange or apricot jam in a bowl, and add a softened stick of butter to it. Mix it together, and brush the turkey with it. Stick the turkey back in, but keep a close eye on it. We want a nice crispy skin, but we don’t want to burn it. Once the turkey’s done, take it out and let it sit for an hour before you carve it. By the way, if you’re not experienced in the art of carving up a turkey, this video will help you get it right and impress your family: Delay your carving as long as you can — turkey tastes best just when it’s cut! If you give this recipe a shot, take a picture, post it on Twitter, and tag me (@reddogT3) so I can see it! Have a great week, and an even better Thanksgiving!
Continue Reading -->My Swing Trade Game Plan for This Week
Sami Abusaad | Strategic Swing TraderThis video provides an analysis of the current market environment as well as a review of swing ideas for next week. Then, check out our 50% Off Black Friday Sale!
Continue Reading -->How to Save 50% on Our Black Friday Sale
EDITOR’S NOTE: Our 2018 Black Friday Promotion is over. If you have any questions, call 1-888-998-3548.–> Click Here for Our 90% Off Cyber Monday Sale 00 Days 00 Hours 00 Minutes 00 Seconds How to Save 50% With Our Black Friday SaleTIP: you actually don’t have to make any payments today! If you qualify for PayPal financing, you can set up a payment plan with 6 months of interest-free financing. Just select PayPal at checkout and you’ll be on your way. 1) Click to Visit Our Black Friday Sales Page2) Add More than $2,500 Worth of Products to your Shopping Cart3) We Take 50% Off!That’s it. Everything on the page is on sale, so now is the time to get in.Choose how how much you want to save – $1,250, $2,000, or even more!(Please Note: Black Friday bundles are not refundable)Get Your Deal Now ==>Helpful Hint: After you add something to your cart, click the “Continue Shopping” button add additional products.If you’re ready to invest in your own P&L, now’s the time.Pay just $1,250 for $2,500 worth of services — or save even more, if that’s what you want.So if you’ve been eyeing an upgrade from a monthly to an annual subscription, or getting some new training, now is the time to act.Need Help Deciding?Call 1-888-998-3548 for help from one of our friendly Trading CounselorsSick of watching time go by without earning a steady P&L?Want to finally learn options, forex, or technical analysis?There is no time like the present. For less than the cost of 1 bad trade, you can get on the road to success.Click to Get Started ==>
Continue Reading -->How to Define a Significant Pivot
Ryan Tonking | Black Room LessonsToday’s video covers a common question; What is a significant pivot? We’ll cover all the criteria I use to define a significant pivot and why they are so important. Later in the series we’ll look at some good examples and analyze some trends together to identify significant pivots. Lastly, we’ll go over how this concept brought me to make one of the largest changes in my trading thus far.
Continue Reading -->Inside Sami Abusaad’s Epic Trading Win Streak
Sami Abusaad | Black Room LessonsWant to know why Sami Abusaad is such a popular trading instructor? Want to know why his next 5-Day Elite Private Mentorship is selling out so fast? It’s because of P&L numbers like this. Let’s go through some of Sami’s recent videos, which feature REAL P&L statements. No paper trading for him!First, we’ll start with Sami’s play on homebuilder KBH, which had a big professional gap down. The initial play failed, but set up again and was played three times in the row for profit! Sami netted $2,300+ on KBH, bringing his total P&L to over $4K for the day. (See the P&L statements in the video) Next Sami outlines how an “Epic Fail” of a pattern played out, netting him $7,382.21 in a single day. This is the power of a trading edge:Most people believe stock market prices move randomly, and thus, cannot be predicted. The Random Walk Theory written in 1964 aided that belief. But experienced traders know when prices are random (and to be avoided) and when they’re actually highly predicable (and to be capitalized on). Learn the high probability, repeating, non-random patterns that generated $7,727 in a single dayNow let’s move on to the final video, This is an outlier day — as in special — showing how Sami grossed over $17,000 in profit in one single day:Obviously, Sami doesn’t put up numbers like this every day…. but there are lessons to be learned, starting with why you must know which stocks to focus on before the open, and which ones to ignore. Are you impressed? We are… Want to learn all of Sami’s tips, tricks, and hacks in a real-time market environment? Click to learn about Sami’s new Mentorship program.
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