All posts by Greta Wall
Coffee With Greta: Waiting For NVDA’s AI Conference
DJIA Futures: +69 (+0.2%) SPX Futures: +38 (+0.7%) NASDAQ Futures: +215 (+1.2%) Good morning friends! Futures are higher as traders look ahead to Nvidia’s AI conference today and await this week’s Fed decision. Let’s get right to it! Nvidia Rises Ahead Of GTC Conference Nvidia (NVDA) shares are up 2.7% ahead of the open as traders await the start of the company’s GTC conference later today. The annual conference begins at 4:00 p.m. ET with a keynote speech by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang. He’s expected to detail the company’s plans for the year ahead, especially in the AI space. In years past, Nvidia unveiled new GPUs at this conference. The company is widely expected to announce successors to its current AI GPUs today,. More than 300 speakers and companies are part of the event which runs through Wednesday. SMCI Joins S&P 500 Super Micro Computer (SMCI) shares are rising 2.6% in premarket trade as the stock is set to join the S&P 500. As of the open, SMCI shares will begin trading as part of the blue-chip index. SMCI is up nearly 300% year to date, riding the AI wave fueled by Nvidia. The company is a key supplier of servers for AI apps that work with Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) chips. SMCI joins the S&P with a $60 billion market cap and is trading at a PE ratio of 40. Fed Week Traders are awaiting this week’s Fed decision on Wednesday. The central bank kicks off its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday with the rate decision released at 2:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. The Fed is not expected to change rates this week but focus will be on the updated Summary of Economic Projections. That summary, also known as the dot plot, shows where Fed officials expect rates to be over the next few years. The last dot plot in December showed officials expecting three rate cuts this year but hotter than expected inflation and labor market data since then may have changed their expectations.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Volatile Day Ahead?
DJIA Futures: +56 (+0.1%) SPX Futures: +3 (+0.1%) NASDAQ Futures: -15 (-0.1%) Good morning friends! Futures are mixed as the market looks to end this down week on a high note. Let’s get right to it! Triple Witching Today’s session could be more volatile than usual as the market experiences its first triple witching of the year. A triple witching is the quarterly expiration of stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options contracts all on the same day. It happens on the third Friday of the last month of each quarter. A total of more than $5 trillion options are set to expire during today’s session. $3.2 trillion index options expire at the open while $1.9 trillion in stock and ETFs options expire at the close. If the S&P 500 ends today’s session in the red, the index will log its second straight weekly loss for the first time since late October. Bitcoin Pulls Back Crypto-related stocks are falling ahead of the open as bitcoin retreats from record territory. The coin dropped from above $72,000 Thursday night to around $67,000 this morning, a roughly 7% decline. Currently bitcoin is trading around $67,800. Coinbase (COIN) shares are down 4.6%, MicroStrategy (MSTR) shares are 3.5% lower, and Marathon Digital (MARA) shares are down 2.7%. Adobe Drops On Weak Guidance Adobe (ADBE) shares are down 11.7% in premarket trade after beating fiscal Q1 expectations but issuing soft revenue guidance. Here’s how the design software maker’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: Adjusted EPS: $4.48 vs $4.38 expected Revenue: $5.18 billion vs $5.14 billion expected Revenue rose 11% year over year. Adobe forecast fiscal Q2 adjusted EPS between $4.35 and $4.40 on $5.25 billion to $5.30 billion in revenue. The middle of that range implies 9% growth from last year. Analysts were anticipating $4.38 in adjusted EPS on $5.31 billion in revenue. Ulta Tumbles After Soft Forecast Ulta Beauty (ULTA) shares are dropping 8.2% ahead of the open after beating Q4 expectations but issuing a soft forecast. Here’s how the beauty retailer’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: EPS: $8.08 vs $7.53 expected Revenue: $3.55 billion vs $3.53 billion expected Comparable sales rose just 2.5% year over year. For the full fiscal year, Ulta forecast EPS between $26.20 and $27 vs $27.01 expected. The company expects net sales of $11.7 billion to $11.8 billion, in line with analysts’ estimates.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Higher Prices, Weaker Spending
DJIA Futures: +113 (+0.3%) SPX Futures: +9 (+0.2%) NASDAQ Futures: +43 (+0.2%) Good morning friends! Futures are higher as traders digest mixed economic data with hot inflation but weaker than expected retail sales. Let’s get right to it! Wholesale Inflation Runs Hot Wholesale inflation pressures were hotter than expected in February. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ producer price index rose 0.6% monthly and 1.6% year over year. That was higher than expectations for a 0.3% monthly and 1.2% annual gain. It was the hottest annual headline number since September 2023. The core PPI, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 0.3% monthly and 2.0% annually vs 0.2% monthly and 1.9% annually expected. About two-thirds of the increase was due to a 1.2% surge in goods prices, the largest increase since August, as gas prices jumped 6.8%. Services costs increased 0.3%. February Retail Sales Come In Short Retail sales were weaker than expected last month. The Commerce Department reported consumer spending rose 0.6% in February to $700.7 billion. That was weaker than economists’ expectations for a 0.7% increase but a rebound from the 1.1% decrease in January. The largest increase was at building material stores where sales jumped 2.2%. Sales at car dealerships rose 1.8%, increased 1.5% at electronics and appliance stores, and rose 0.9% at gas stations. Furniture stores saw sales fall 1.1%, while sales at clothing retailers were down 0.5%, and 0.2% lower at department stores. Weekly Jobless Claims Fall Weekly jobless claims fell unexpectedly last week as the labor market maintains strength. The Labor Department reported 209,000 Americans filed initial claims for unemployment benefits last week. That was down by 1,000 from the previous week and lower than 218,000 expected. Continuing claims rose by 17,000 to 1.811 million vs 1.9 million expected in the week ending March 2. Dollar General Pops On Earnings Beat, Strong Outlook Dollar General (DG) shares are up 4.9% ahead of the open after beating Q4 expectations and issuing strong guidance. Here’s how the discount retailer’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: EPS: $1.83 vs $1.73 expected Revenue: $9.86 billion vs $9.77 billion expected Same-store sales increased 0.7% year over year vs expectations for a 1% decline. Dollar General forecast Q1 EPS between $1.50 and $1.60 vs $1.88 expected. The company said it expects same-store sales to rise between 1.5% to 2% vs expectations for a 0.3% increase. For the full fiscal year, Dollar General forecast EPS between $6.80 and $7.55 vs $7.42 expected. The company sees full-year sales growth of 6% to 6.7% vs 4.4% growth expected.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Record Territory
DJIA Futures: +35 (+0.1%) SPX Futures: -3 (-0.1%) NASDAQ Futures: -60 (-0.3%) Good morning friends! Futures are mixed after the S&P 500 closed at a new record high on Tuesday. Let’s get right to it! S&P Notches Fresh Record The S&P 500 notched a new record close on Tuesday as the market bounced back from recent weakness. The blue-chip index rose 1.1% to close at 5,175.27. The rally came after inflation data was relatively in line with expectations, keeping the market’s hopes alive for a rate cut in June. Nvidia (NVDA) remained the market leader on Tuesday with the stock surging 7.2% to $919.13 at the close. Dollar Tree Drops On Disappointing Earnings Dollar Tree (DLTR) shares are down 8% ahead of the open after missing Q4 expectations on the top and bottom line. Here’s how the discount retailer’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: Adjusted EPS: $2.55 vs $2.66 expected Revenue: $8.63 billion vs $8.67 billion expected The company also said it plans to close 600 Family Dollar locations in the first half of this year plus an additional 370 Family Dollar and 30 Dollar Tree stores over the next several years. Same-store sales across both store brands increased 3% year over year last quarter vs 2.8% expected. But Family Dollar same-store sales dropped 1.2% vs the 0.5% decline expected. Dollar Tree forecast Q1 EPS between $1.33 and $1.48 vs $1.70 expected. For the full year, the company expects EPS between $6.70 and $7.30 vs $7.04 expected. Bitcoin Continues Record Climb Crypto-related stocks are climbing in premarket trade as bitcoin climbs to a fresh record-high. MicroStrategy (MSTR) shares are up 3.7%, Riot Platforms (RIOT) shares are 1.1% higher, and Marathon Digital (MARA) shares are up 0.3% higher. Bitcoin is currently above $73,000 after climbing above that mark for the first time ever earlier this morning. The coin has been on a massive rally in recent weeks. Mortgage Demand Rises Mortgage demand jumped again last week as rates fell below 7%. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported total application volume rose 7.1% from the previous week. Purchase applications rose 5% weekly but were still down 11% year over year. Refinance applications jumped 12% weekly and 5% annually. The increase came as the average 30-year fixed contract rate decreased to 6.84% from 7.02%. Rates have moved higher this week with the latest quote from Mortgage News Daily showing an average of 6.94%.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Inflation Still Rising
DJIA Futures: +67 (+0.2%) SPX Futures: +24 (+0.5%) NASDAQ Futures: +116 (+0.6%) Good morning friends! Futures are higher after the release of new inflation data. Let’s get right to it! February CPI Inflation pressures were slightly hotter than expected in February, keeping the Fed on track to continue waiting for rate cuts. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer price index rose 0.4% monthly and 3.2% year over year last month. That was in line with monthly estimates and hotter than 3.1% annually expected. The core CPI rose 0.4% monthly and 3.8% annually vs 0.3% monthly and 3.7% annually expected. That core rate remains well above the Fed’s 2% target. The headline number was boosted by a 2.3% increase in energy prices, while food prices were flat, and shelter costs rose 0.4%. The energy and shelter increases accounted for more than 60% of the total gain. Oracle Jumps On Earnings Beat Oracle (ORCL) shares are up 11.5% ahead of the open after beating fiscal Q3 earnings expectations. Here’s how the cloud company’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: Adjusted EPS: $1.41 vs $1.38 expected Revenue: $13.28 billion vs $13.3 billion expected Although revenue was a bit lighter than estimated, it was still up 7% year over year. Net income climbed 27% from a year ago. Sales in Oracle’s cloud services and license support segment rose 12% to $9.96 billion vs $9.94 billion expected. But cloud license and on-premise sales fell 3% to $1.26 billion, hardware revenue fell 7% to $754 million, and sales in the services division slid 5% to $1.31 billion. Oracle forecast fiscal Q4 EPS between $1.62 and $1.66 vs $1.64 expected. The company expects revenue growth between 4% and 6% year over year. Kohl’s Slips On Mixed Results Kohl’s (KSS) shares are falling 3.1% in premarket trade after reporting mixed results for the fiscal fourth quarter. Here’s how the retailer’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: EPS: $1.67 vs $1.28 expected Revenue: $5.7 billion vs $5.8 billion expected Same-store sales fell 4.3% year over year, more than expected. Kohl’s said it expects full-year net sales to range between down 1% and up 1% with same-store sales ranging between flat and up 2%. The company forecast full-year EPS between $2.10 and $2.70 vs $2.62 expected. Southwest Cuts Outlook Due To Boeing Delays Southwest Airlines (LUV) shares are down 8.5% ahead of the open after the company said it will have to cut its capacity plans and reevaluate financial forecasts for the year. The airline cited delivery delays from Boeing (BA), which is its sole supplier of planes. Boeing has informed Southwest’s leaders to expect 46 Boeing 737 Max 8 planes this year, down from 58 previously. Southwest had originally expected Boeing to deliver 79 Max planes, including some of the smaller Max 7. In a filing, the airline said it is “reevaluating all prior full year 2024 guidance, including the expectation for capital spending.”
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Key Data Week
DJIA Futures: -159 (-0.4%) SPX Futures: -20 (-0.4%) NASDAQ Futures: -93 (-0.5%) Good morning friends! Futures are slipping, extending Friday’s reversal. Let’s get right to it! Inflation Week Traders are awaiting key data for the Fed this week with new inflation numbers set to be released. The February CPI will be released Tuesday morning ahead of the market open. That will be followed by February retail sales and the PPI on Thursday morning. This is the final inflation data that will be released ahead of the Fed’s next policy meeting next week. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows no expectations for a rate change at that meeting. But the decision will come with an updated Summary of Economic Projections which should give more clues on when the bank plans to begin rate cuts this year. Traders are currently betting on the first cut at the June meeting. Bitcoin Hits Record High Bitcoin is trading in record territory this morning after Britain’s Financial Conduct Authority said it would allow exchanges to list crypto-linked exchange-traded products. The coin hit a high of $72,211.51 earlier in the morning, a fresh all-time high. The London Stock Exchange said it would begin accepting applications for crypto exchange traded notes, or ETNs. The U.K. allows only institutional investors, not retail investors, to buy crypto-linked ETNs or derivatives. The ETNs are different from the spot bitcoin ETFs approved in the U.S. ETNs are an unsecured debt security issued by a bank and linked to a market index or other benchmark that promises to pay out the full value at maturity. Analysts say the move will lead to increased institutional investment in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies which will drive the price of bitcoin higher. Crypto-linked stocks are rallying alongside bitcoin with Coinbase (COIN) up 5.9% ahead of the open, Marathon Digital (MARA) rising 4.3%, and MicroStrategy (MSTR) jumping 9.3%. Oil Extends Losses Oil prices are starting the new week lower, extending last week’s losses. West Texas Intermediate crude futures are down 0.4% at under $78 bbl while Brent crude futures are down 0.4% at under $82 bbl. Those contracts dropped 2.45% and 1.75% respectively last week amid weak demand in China and comments from the International Energy Agency that the market should be well supplied this year. The IEA and OPEC will release updated monthly supply reports later this week. The upcoming inflation data will also be key for the oil market as investors await rate cuts that typically stimulate economic growth and fuels higher crude demand.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Rising Unemployment Hits Yields
DJIA Futures: +5 (+0.01%) SPX Futures: +11 (+0.2%) NASDAQ Futures: +29 (+0.2%) Good morning friends! Futures are higher following the jobs report. Let’s get right to it! Unemployment Rises The U.S. economy added more jobs than expected in February while the unemployment rate rose unexpectedly. The Labor Department reported employers added 275,000 workers last month vs 198,000 expected. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% vs expectations for it to be unchanged at 3.7%. It was the highest unemployment rate since January 2022. That increase in unemployment came even as the labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5%. The change in the unemployment rate appeared partly due to lower revisions in the previous two months. January’s job growth was revised lower by 124,000 to +229,000 while December was revised down by 43,000 to +290,000. Wages rose 0.1% monthly in February, below 0.2% expected, and were up 4.3% year over year vs 4.5% expected. The healthcare sector saw the strongest growth last month adding 67,000 jobs, government added 52,000, restaurants and bars added 42,000, social assistance rose by 24,000, transportation and warehousing added 20,000, construction added 23,000, and retail trade added 19,000. Yields Fall After Jobs Report Treasury yields are lower this morning following that unexpected uptick in the unemployment rate. The 10-year yield is down two basis points at 4.07% while the 2-year yield is down eight basis points at 4.44%. The rising unemployment rate is a good sign for those hoping for a Fed rate cut sooner rather than later. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool currently shows the market betting on the first cut at the bank’s June meeting. Costco Slips After Revenue Miss Costco (COST) shares are down 3.4% ahead of the open after reporting mixed Q4 results. Here’s how the big box retailer’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: EPS: $3.92 vs $3.63 expected Revenue: $58.4 billion vs $59.1 billion Revenue was up 5% year over year while same-store sales rose 5.6% vs 5% expected. E-commerce sales rose more than 18% from a year ago. In Case You Missed It Rivian (RIVN) shares surged 13.4% on Thursday after the company unveiled three new EV models and announced new cost savings efforts. The electric automaker’s CEO announced the upcoming R2 SUV and two new crossovers, the R3 and R3X during a livestreamed event. Rivian said it will pause construction on its new plant in Georgia and shift production of the new R2 from that location to its existing plant in Illinois. The move is expected to save the company $2.25 billion.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Rebound Continues
DJIA Futures: +89 (+0.2%) SPX Futures: +21 (+0.4%) NASDAQ Futures: +105 (+0.6%) Good morning friends! Futures are higher, continuing Wednesday’s rebound. Let’s get right to it! Fed Chair Testimony Day 2 Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify in the Senate Banking Committee today for day two of his Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress. Today’s comments are expected to be similar to Wednesday’s testimony in the House. Powell told the House Financial Services Committee that he believes the bank will cut rates this year but they first need more evidence to start cuts. He did not express concern about the pace of inflation, saying “it has eased notably over the past year”. Powell said cutting rates too soon could “result in a reversal of progress” against inflation while cutting “too late or too little” could weaken the economy and hiring. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows traders expecting the first rate cut at the Fed’s June meeting. Weekly Jobless Claims Unchanged Weekly jobless claims were unchanged last week as the labor market maintains strength. The Labor Department reported 217,000 Americans filed initial claims for unemployment benefits. That was unchanged from the week before and in line with expectations. Continuing claims rose by 8,000 to 1.906 million vs 1.88 million expected in the week ending February 24. Trade Deficit Widens The U.S. trade deficit widened more than expected in January. The Commerce Department reported the gap jumped 5.1% at the beginning of the year to $67.4 billion. It was the largest deficit in nine months and higher than $63.4 billion expected. Exports totaled $257.2 billion in January while imports totaled $324.6 billion. The deficit decreased 4.1% compared to January 2023. Kroger Jumps On Earnings Beat Kroger (KR) shares are up 4.5% ahead of the open after beating Q4 expectations on the top and bottom line. Here’s how the grocery operator’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: Adjusted EPS: $1.34 vs $1.13 expected Revenue: $37.1 billion vs $37 billion expected The company said lower supply-chain costs helped offset lost inventory due to increased theft during the quarter. For the current fiscal year, Kroger forecast adjusted EPS between $4.30 and $4.50 vs $4.30 expected. In Case You Missed It There were fewer job openings than expected in January. The Labor Department’s job openings and labor turnover survey shows the number of available jobs fell by 26,000 to 8.863 million vs 8.9 million expected. There were 1.45 jobs available for every unemployed person, up from 1.42 in December. Hirings slowed by 100,000 to 5.867 million while quits decreased by 54,000 to 3.385 million. That was the lowest quits rate in three and a half years. New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) shares surged on Wednesday after announcing a new capital raise and leadership shakeup. The bank said it has agreed to a deal with Liberty Strategic Capital, Hudson Bay Capital, and Reverence Capital Partners to raise $1 billion in capital. Former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, head of Liberty Strategic Capital, will also be one of four new members to join NYCB’s board of directors.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Fed Chair Takes The Hot Seat
DJIA Futures: +187 (+0.5%) SPX Futures: +31 (+0.6%) NASDAQ Futures: +165 (+0.9%) Good morning friends! Futures are higher as traders await day one of the Fed Chair’s testimony in Congress. Let’s get right to it! Fed Chair To Testify Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to testify in the House Financial Services Committee today. The testimony is day one of his Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress. In his prepared remarks, Powell reiterates the Central Bank is not yet ready to start cutting rates. He says, “In considering any adjustments to the target range for the policy rate, we will carefully assess the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect that it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.” Powell emphasizes that the Fed will remain data dependent for future rate decisions as they remain concerned about not losing the progress made against inflation so far. He says, “We believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle. If the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year. But the economic outlook is uncertain, and ongoing progress toward our 2 percent inflation objective is not assured.” His testimony is set to begin at 10:00 a.m. ET. Private Job Growth Weaker Than Expected The U.S. private sector added fewer jobs than expected in February. Payroll firm ADP reported private employers added 140,000 jobs last month vs 150,000 expected. That was still an increase from the revised 111,000 in January. Leisure and hospitality led the gains adding 41,000 jobs, construction added 28,000, trade, transportation and utilities added 24,000, finance added 17,000, and other services added 14,000. Overall, the services sector added 110,000 jobs while goods producers added just 30,000. Annual pay increased 5.1%, the smallest increase ADP has seen since August 2021. This data comes ahead of the official February jobs report on Friday which is expected to show the U.S. economy added 198,000 jobs with the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7%. Nordstrom Tumbles On Weak Guidance Nordstrom (JWN) shares are dropping 11.1% ahead of the open after beating Q4 expectations but issuing weak guidance. Here’s how the retailer’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: Adjusted EPS: $0.96 vs $0.88 expected Revenue: $4.42 billion vs $4.39 billion Nordstrom forecast full-year revenue will range from a 2% decline to a 1% gain year over year. The company expects full-year EPS between $1.65 and $2.05 Foot Locker Plunges After Earnings Foot Locker (FL) shares are tumbling 15.5% in premarket trade after reporting a loss in the holiday quarter and issuing a soft outlook. Here’s how the shoe retailer’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: Adjusted EPS: $0.38 vs $0.32 expected Revenue: $2.38 billion vs $2.28 billion expected On an unadjusted basis, Foot Locker lost $389 million, or $4.13 per share, in the quarter. Sales rose 2% year over year. The company forecast full-year adjusted EPS between $1.50 and $1.70 vs $1.40 to $2.30 expected. Foot Locker expects full-year sales to be between down 1% and up 1%. Mortgage Demand Surges Weekly mortgage demand surged last week as more homes were put on the market. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported purchase application volume jumped 11% from the previous week but was still down 8% from a year ago. That increase came as there were 14.8% more homes actively for sale in February vs the same time last year. The average 30-year fixed contract rate decreased slightly to 7.02% from 7.04%. Refinance applications rose 8% weekly and fell 2% annually.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Tech Pullback
DJIA Futures: -142 (-0.4%) SPX Futures: -21 (-0.4%) NASDAQ Futures: -123 (-0.7%) Good morning friends! Futures are slipping as traders await key data this week. Let’s get right to it! Tech Pullback Stocks are falling this morning, continuing Monday’s decline that pulled the Nasdaq back from record highs. The tech-heavy index slipped 0.4% on Monday while the S&P 500 fell 0.12% and the Dow dropped 0.25%. Both the S&P and Nasdaq were in record territory ahead of Monday’s drop. The drop in tech stocks came even as major AI leaders rallied with Nvidia (NVDA) rising 3% and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) surging 18%. Traders are awaiting key events this week with the Fed Chair set to testify in Congress and new labor market data beginning on Wednesday. AMD’s China Chips Blocked Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares are falling 2.2% ahead of the open after hitting a regulatory roadblock for its AI chip made for China. Bloomberg reported the company will need to apply for an export license for the new chip. AMD designed the chip to have lower performance than its premium products. But the Commerce Department did not clear it for sale in China, saying it was still too advanced. The U.S. has restricted sales of the most advanced semiconductor technologies to China, citing national security concerns. The restrictions have also impacted Nvidia’s (NVDA) sales in China. Target Surges After Earnings Target (TGT) shares are rallying 9.3% in premarket trade after beating Q4 expectations on the top and bottom line. Here’s how the retailer’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: EPS: $2.98 vs $2.42 expected Revenue: $31.92 billion vs $31.83 billion expected Comparable sales declined 4.4% year over year, dropping for the third quarter in a row. The company expects that trend to continue. Target forecast Q1 adjusted EPS between $1.70 and $2.10 with comparable sales expected to decline between 3% and 5%. The retailer expects full-year comparable sales to be flat to up to 2% and adjusted EPS between $8.60 and $9.60.
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