Dropbox Creates F.O.M.O., Teaches a Key Technical Analysis Lesson

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Dropbox (DBX) is making a huge move today.

Let’s reverse engineer the rally.

On Wednesday, I said this in my Morning Note:

“DBX has had many false starts. We’ll see if this one is better. Bulls want it to continue above $31 and hold that level.”

That $31 level was Tuesday’s high, as you can see on this chart:

..

It managed to get above $31, touching $31.90. That made $34 - the IPO reaction high -- a big spot to watch.

And today, I said :

DBX was on the stronger side again yesterday. It had a decent Day #1 Tuesday and cleared $31 yesterday. There’s a big base, and if it can clear $31.90, there could be a real move to the post-IPO highs near $34.83.

Now let’s look at the “After” chart:

As you can see, DBX cut thorough $31 like a knife through butter on Wednesday.

And today, it gapped above the descending trendline to pass the post-IPO highs near $34.83. As i write this, it’s over $36.

The lesson: keep an eye on post-IPO highs and lows. They are very important pivots for judging action, and sometimes signal follow-through because they create F.O.M.O. (Fear of Missing Out) for traders that worry about getting left behind.

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