Permabulls always say everyone's bearish.<\/p>\n
And\u00a0permabears\u00a0always say everyone's bullish.<\/p>\n
Neither side provides evidence for their views.<\/p>\n
So let's see how traders are feeling into today's inauguration:<\/p>\n
1) VIX Spread – Bullish<\/strong><\/p>\n The 3-month VIX spread is at +5, which indicates traders are not concerned with volatility.<\/p>\n This is a bullish reading.<\/p>\n 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bullish<\/strong><\/p>\n The Fear & Greed Index is at 67.<\/p>\n F&G operates on a 1-100 scale, and 67 indicates that traders are moderately bullish.<\/p>\n 3) AAII Sentiment – Neutral<\/strong><\/p>\n The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 35.8% of individual investors are bullish, which is below the long-term average of 38.5%.<\/p>\n This is basically neutral.<\/p>\n 4<\/strong>) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bearish<\/strong><\/p>\n The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio is at 0.69 with a 3-day moving average of 0.73. This indicates higher-than-average bearishness.<\/p>\n 5) ISE Sentiment – Bearish<\/strong> This also indicates bearish sentiment.<\/p>\n Conclusion<\/strong><\/p>\n Out of 5 sentiment indicators, we have 2 bullish, 1 neutral, and 2 bearish signs.<\/p>\n Now this seems neutral, but I'd argue that traders are actually leaning bullish.<\/p>\n Why?<\/p>\n Because options-based indicators (notably the ISE Sentiment Index) have become fairly detached from equity markets.<\/p>\n Using sentiment as a signal for buys\/sells is often a bad idea. And in the case of these options indicators, they seem to be losing value as times go on.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Permabulls always say everyone’s bearish. And\u00a0permabears\u00a0always say everyone’s bullish. Neither side provides evidence for their views. So let’s see how traders are feeling into today’s inauguration: 1) VIX Spread – Bullish The 3-month VIX spread is at +5, which indicates traders are not concerned with volatility. This is a bullish reading. 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bullish The Fear & Greed Index is at 67. F&G operates on a 1-100 scale, and 67 indicates that traders are moderately bullish. 3) AAII Sentiment – Neutral The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 35.8% of individual investors are bullish, which is below the long-term average of 38.5%. This is basically neutral. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bearish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio is at 0.69 with a 3-day moving average of 0.73. This indicates higher-than-average bearishness. 5) ISE Sentiment – Bearish The ISE Sentiment Index is at just 85 (85 calls for every 100 puts) this afternoon – which is a bearish reading.\u00a0 And the 10-day moving average is 79.2. This also indicates bearish sentiment. Conclusion Out of 5 sentiment indicators, we have 2 bullish, 1 neutral, and 2 bearish signs. Now this seems neutral, but I’d argue that traders are actually leaning bullish. Why? Because options-based indicators (notably the ISE Sentiment Index) have become fairly detached from equity markets. Using sentiment as a signal for buys\/sells is often a bad idea. And in the case of these options indicators, they seem to be losing value as times go on.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":4100,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[384,45,303,304,47,495],"class_list":["post-8155","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles","tag-aaii-sentiment-survey","tag-cboe-equity-put-call","tag-cnn-fear-greed-index","tag-ise-sentiment","tag-sentiment","tag-stock-market-sentiment"],"yoast_head":"\n
\nThe ISE Sentiment Index is at just 85 (85 calls for every 100 puts) this afternoon – which is a bearish reading.\u00a0 And the 10-day moving average is 79.2.<\/p>\n