{"id":80463,"date":"2026-09-24T15:44:22","date_gmt":"2026-09-24T19:44:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/?p=80463"},"modified":"2026-09-24T15:44:22","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T19:44:22","slug":"bull-or-bear-pick-a-side-and-fight","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2026\/09\/24\/bull-or-bear-pick-a-side-and-fight\/","title":{"rendered":"Bull or Bear? Pick a Side and Fight"},"content":{"rendered":"

Have you ever wondered why we refer to the daily battle of buying and selling that takes place on Wall Street as the bulls vs. the bears?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

I think it has to do with the nature of each beast\u2019s relationship to man. A bull sees its target, puts its head down and horns up, and charges ahead no matter what obstacle is in its way. A bull doesn\u2019t stop until it either kills or is killed by the matador. A bear spends much of its time in hibernation and hiding, and it only makes its presence known at the moment of attack. A bear keeps away until a victim enters its territory.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In trading we\u2019ve got to take the same approach as these two beasts. If we do the work and determine that we should be bullish, we\u2019ve got to charge ahead on the long side and disregard obstacles. If you\u2019ve ever been long a stock that was charging higher, you know how great the temptation can be to sell early and lock in profit to make sure it doesn\u2019t slip away. Ignoring the negatives in a real bull trend higher is a difficult skill to attain, and perhaps the best we can do is try to hold on a little longer each time we\u2019re in one. In the same vein, if we do the work and determine the appropriate stance is bearish, we\u2019ve got to wait for the market to come into the area we want, then attack and leave. Bulls charge relentlessly, and bears maul swiftly. This is the proper way we should think about our own trading.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Each one of us has to determine for ourselves whether we are bullish or bearish. There\u2019s much work that goes into that conclusion, but once we\u2019ve chosen a side, we must use our capital to fight.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

As for myself, I\u2019ve determined that the appropriate stance for my irreplaceable capital is on the bear side. I\u2019m in 75% cash and waiting for a spot to short. I\u2019m waiting for price to come into the area I want, about $53,000 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and then like a bear, I\u2019ll attack. The market is leaning bullish now with the SPX and NDX breaking higher so the DJIA could get nearer the $53K level in the last weeks of September or by the first couple of weeks in October. I\u2019m looking to short the DJIA ETF, the DIA, at around $530 with a tight stop above $537.75 which is the high for September. Above $540 on the DIA and I\u2019ll flip to bullish and scramble to get long something. I\u2019ve also incorporated a time stop into my trade plan: if stocks haven\u2019t started to decline by Halloween, I\u2019ll abandon the bear side for the rest of the year. I\u2019m not going to hold on to a losing position just because I\u2019ve done a thorough analysis and decided I\u2019m bearish.<\/span><\/p>\n

DIA Trade Plan:<\/span><\/p>\n

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But what exactly are the facts that give me a reason to be bearish? Merely being \u201cconcerned\u201d about stocks\u2019 advance is not a rigorous analysis. Professional speculation requires real analytical work, especially when trying to pinpoint a bull to bear turn.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

I\u2019ve done the work that leads me to the conclusion that there\u2019s a <\/span>near picture perfect analog to the 1929 and 1987 crashes<\/span><\/a>. I\u2019ve kept <\/span>a checklist of signs to indicate when the turn in the business cycle is approaching<\/span><\/a>, and I\u2019ve been keeping an eye out for the anecdotal evidence I remember from the 2008 crash like constant road construction as municipalities rush to spend the record high tax revenues from a previously booming economy and signs of excess like the Hummer EV, which is a nearly exact replica of the sign of excess of the Hummer H2 I saw in the housing boom leading up to the 2008 crash. But a proper analysis requires more than just anecdotal evidence to be taken seriously. So I\u2019ll present my bear case here for anyone to pick apart. Below is a video showing my analysis of the 1929 and 1987 crashes and how they resemble the current market in 2026.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

1929 and 1987 Comparison to 2026 video:<\/span><\/p>\n