{"id":79501,"date":"2026-05-22T13:39:35","date_gmt":"2026-05-22T17:39:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/?p=79501"},"modified":"2026-05-22T15:14:17","modified_gmt":"2026-05-22T19:14:17","slug":"ipo-mania-spacex-anthropic-openai","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2026\/05\/22\/ipo-mania-spacex-anthropic-openai\/","title":{"rendered":"Will SpaceX Kill the Market?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>What a week! <strong>Nvidia<\/strong> (NVDA) closed out a whopper of an earnings season, SpaceX is coming public, and the bulls kept us within striking distance of all-time highs.<\/p>\n<p>So I'll ask a dangerous question.<\/p>\n<h2>Will SpaceX Kill the Market?<\/h2>\n<p>Elon Musk's SpaceX dropped its IPO filing this week, revealing billions in losses and a sky-high valuation.<\/p>\n<p>And there's other issues, like index companies c<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/hot-mega-ipos-like-spacex-and-anthropic-could-land-in-your-index-funds-sooner-than-you-think-11970622\">hanging the rules<\/a><\/strong><\/span> to get SpaceX into mainstays like the S&P 500, and Elon sucking up the voting power for himself.<\/p>\n<p>Does anyone care?<\/p>\n<p>It's tricky to say.<\/p>\n<p>We surveyed the T3 Live community this week and asked &#8220;Do you want to buy SpaceX when it comes public?&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>39.7% said yes, and 34.4% said maybe.<\/p>\n<p>And at the start of the year, we asked our audience &#8220;Which IPO are you most excited for?&#8221;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>64.1% said SpaceX<\/li>\n<li>28.2% said OpenAI<\/li>\n<li>3.8% said Anthropic<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Given what looks like red hot retail interest and Elon's games with the index providers, I will do my best to get some SpaceX shares before the IPO.<\/p>\n<p>Because it looks like the game may be rigged for the stock to pop.<\/p>\n<p>No guarantees because it's common for high-profile IPOs (like recent new issue Cerebras) to sell off after hot debuts.<\/p>\n<p>News reports indicate that OpenAI and Anthropic will also come public this year.<\/p>\n<p>But there is a danger here &#8211; that a surge in new issues could contribute to a market top.<\/p>\n<p>SEC data shows that market tops coincide with strong IPO years like 2000, 2007, 2014, and 2021.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Economic-Data-Charts-2.png\" \/><\/p>\n<p>And we are looking at three generational IPOs coming public in 2026.<\/p>\n<p>I'm a little scared myself, though I am trying to scoop up some SpaceX shares myself.<\/p>\n<p>What can I say? I love me some Elon Musk drama, which is why I'm long <strong>Tesla<\/strong> (TSLA).<\/p>\n<h2><strong>The Mag 7 Mixup Is Fascinating<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Mag 7 earnings are amazing. The stocks are another story.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/insight.factset.com\/mag-7-and-other-493-sp-500-companies-are-reporting-highest-earnings-growth-since-2021\">FactSet<\/a><\/strong><\/span> just dropped a new set of Q1 earnings season numbers and they point to Mag 7 dominance.<\/p>\n<p>All Mag 7 names beat earnings expectations, with EPS growing by 63.2%.<\/p>\n<p>For the other 493 S&P 500 companies, earnings grew by 17.4%, which was impressive by itself.<\/p>\n<p>However, 2026 has been a mixed bag for the actual Mag 7 Stocks.<\/p>\n<p>3 of them are down YTD, and the average return is +6.5% vs. +17.5% for QQQ.<\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-79502\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-11.29.30-AM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"796\" height=\"566\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-11.29.30-AM.png 796w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-11.29.30-AM-300x213.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-11.29.30-AM-150x107.png 150w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-11.29.30-AM-768x546.png 768w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-11.29.30-AM-80x57.png 80w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-11.29.30-AM-220x156.png 220w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-11.29.30-AM-141x100.png 141w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-11.29.30-AM-211x150.png 211w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-11.29.30-AM-335x238.png 335w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-11.29.30-AM-584x415.png 584w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-11.29.30-AM-685x487.png 685w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 796px) 100vw, 796px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The discrepancy comes in semiconductors.<\/p>\n<p>Nvidia is the only Mag 7 semiconductor stock in a year with SMH up 61%:<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-79503\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-11.32.08-AM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"835\" height=\"637\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-11.32.08-AM.png 835w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-11.32.08-AM-300x229.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-11.32.08-AM-150x114.png 150w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-11.32.08-AM-768x586.png 768w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-11.32.08-AM-80x61.png 80w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-11.32.08-AM-220x168.png 220w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-11.32.08-AM-131x100.png 131w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-11.32.08-AM-197x150.png 197w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-11.32.08-AM-312x238.png 312w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-11.32.08-AM-544x415.png 544w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-11.32.08-AM-638x487.png 638w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-11.32.08-AM-780x595.png 780w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 835px) 100vw, 835px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Nvidia's Selloff Was Normal<\/h2>\n<p>On Wednesday, Nvidia reported its 14th straight earnings beat.<\/p>\n<p>And the stock fell -1.8%<\/p>\n<p>Is this unusual? NOPE.<\/p>\n<p>That the 4th straight time Nvidia sold off the day after earnings, despite another solid beat.<\/p>\n<p>Here are Nvidia's prior 8 post-earning reactions:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>4Q 2026: -5.5%<\/li>\n<li>3Q 2026: -3.2%<\/li>\n<li>2Q 2026: -0.8%<\/li>\n<li>1Q 2026: +3.3%<\/li>\n<li>4Q 2025: -8.5%<\/li>\n<li>3Q 2025: +0.5%<\/li>\n<li>2Q 2025: -6.4%<\/li>\n<li>1Q 2025: +9.3%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em>Source: Koyfin<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The stock is a toss-up after earnings.<\/p>\n<p>And as you can see, it's been more down than up.<\/p>\n<p>This makes sense, because the stock is widely followed and loved.<\/p>\n<p>And Q1 was jam packed full of huge earnings beats from the AI complex.<\/p>\n<p>Who was shocked that Nvidia's still doing well?<\/p>\n<h2><strong>There Is a Bear Market in Euphoria<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>The latest AAII Sentiment shows that just 31.7% of investors are bullish.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/pbs.twimg.com\/media\/HI3VmVhXAAA2ZmW?format=png&name=900x900\" alt=\"Image\" \/><\/p>\n<p>This is below the long-term 37.5% average, despite the $SPX remaining in striking distance of the 7517.12 all-time high set last week.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, CNN's Fear & Greed index is at 61, indicating modest greed:<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-79504\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-11.35.14-AM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"732\" height=\"625\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-11.35.14-AM.png 732w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-11.35.14-AM-300x256.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-11.35.14-AM-150x128.png 150w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-11.35.14-AM-80x68.png 80w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-11.35.14-AM-220x188.png 220w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-11.35.14-AM-117x100.png 117w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-11.35.14-AM-176x150.png 176w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-11.35.14-AM-279x238.png 279w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-11.35.14-AM-486x415.png 486w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-11.35.14-AM-570x487.png 570w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-11.35.14-AM-697x595.png 697w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 732px) 100vw, 732px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>This is a positive for the market because it shows a lack of euphoria.<\/p>\n<p>You'd think investors would be more bullish because of a mild easing of Middle East tensions and crude oil slipping.<\/p>\n<p>But perhaps the crowd is more concerned about inflation and the Fed.<\/p>\n<p>Either way, market tops are often (but not always) market by overly bullish sentiment.<\/p>\n<p>We are not even in the neighborhood of bullish.<\/p>\n<p>Speaking of the Fed&#8230;<\/p>\n<h2>Rate Hikes En Route?<\/h2>\n<p>While President Trump has been adamant we need lower interest rates, the market is pricing in higher rates following a series of hot inflation readings.<\/p>\n<p>The <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\">CME's FedWatch Tool<\/a><\/strong><\/span>\u00a0now shows the market is pricing in a 0% chance of lower rates at year-end:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-79507\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-12.53.51-PM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"920\" height=\"691\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-12.53.51-PM.png 920w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-12.53.51-PM-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-12.53.51-PM-150x113.png 150w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-12.53.51-PM-768x577.png 768w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-12.53.51-PM-80x60.png 80w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-12.53.51-PM-220x165.png 220w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-12.53.51-PM-133x100.png 133w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-12.53.51-PM-200x150.png 200w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-12.53.51-PM-317x238.png 317w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-12.53.51-PM-553x415.png 553w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-12.53.51-PM-648x487.png 648w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-22-at-12.53.51-PM-792x595.png 792w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 920px) 100vw, 920px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Plus:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>29.9% chance of rates staying the same<\/li>\n<li>70.1% chance of rates going up<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>And that 70.1% is divided up as follows.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>42.4% chance of 25 bps in hikes<\/li>\n<li>22.1% chance of 50 bps in hikes<\/li>\n<li>5.2% chance of 75 bps in hikes<\/li>\n<li>0.5% chance of 100 bps in hikes<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>So why is the market so strong? Shouldn't the prospect of higher rates hurt equities?<\/p>\n<p>For now, investors and traders are focused on booming corporate earnings amid a major AI-driven capex cycle.<\/p>\n<p>Rate expectations can change drastically month-to-month, but the earnings\/AI story ain't going away.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What a week! Nvidia (NVDA) closed out a whopper of an earnings season, SpaceX is coming public, and the bulls kept us within striking distance of all-time highs. So I&#8217;ll ask a dangerous question. Will SpaceX Kill the Market? Elon Musk&#8217;s SpaceX dropped its IPO filing this week, revealing billions in losses and a sky-high valuation. And there&#8217;s other issues, like index companies changing the rules to get SpaceX into mainstays like the S&#038;P 500, and Elon sucking up the voting power for himself. Does anyone care? It&#8217;s tricky to say. We surveyed the T3 Live community this week and asked &#8220;Do you want to buy SpaceX when it comes public?&#8221; 39.7% said yes, and 34.4% said maybe. And at the start of the year, we asked our audience &#8220;Which IPO are you most excited for?&#8221; 64.1% said SpaceX 28.2% said OpenAI 3.8% said Anthropic Given what looks like red hot retail interest and Elon&#8217;s games with the index providers, I will do my best to get some SpaceX shares before the IPO. Because it looks like the game may be rigged for the stock to pop. No guarantees because it&#8217;s common for high-profile IPOs (like recent new issue Cerebras) to sell off after hot debuts. News reports indicate that OpenAI and Anthropic will also come public this year. But there is a danger here &#8211; that a surge in new issues could contribute to a market top. SEC data shows that market tops coincide with strong IPO years like 2000, 2007, 2014, and 2021. And we are looking at three generational IPOs coming public in 2026. I&#8217;m a little scared myself, though I am trying to scoop up some SpaceX shares myself. What can I say? I love me some Elon Musk drama, which is why I&#8217;m long Tesla (TSLA). The Mag 7 Mixup Is Fascinating Mag 7 earnings are amazing. The stocks are another story. FactSet just dropped a new set of Q1 earnings season numbers and they point to Mag 7 dominance. All Mag 7 names beat earnings expectations, with EPS growing by 63.2%. For the other 493 S&#038;P 500 companies, earnings grew by 17.4%, which was impressive by itself. However, 2026 has been a mixed bag for the actual Mag 7 Stocks. 3 of them are down YTD, and the average return is +6.5% vs. +17.5% for QQQ. The discrepancy comes in semiconductors. Nvidia is the only Mag 7 semiconductor stock in a year with SMH up 61%: Nvidia&#8217;s Selloff Was Normal On Wednesday, Nvidia reported its 14th straight earnings beat. And the stock fell -1.8% Is this unusual? NOPE. That the 4th straight time Nvidia sold off the day after earnings, despite another solid beat. Here are Nvidia&#8217;s prior 8 post-earning reactions: 4Q 2026: -5.5% 3Q 2026: -3.2% 2Q 2026: -0.8% 1Q 2026: +3.3% 4Q 2025: -8.5% 3Q 2025: +0.5% 2Q 2025: -6.4% 1Q 2025: +9.3% Source: Koyfin The stock is a toss-up after earnings. And as you can see, it&#8217;s been more down than up. This makes sense, because the stock is widely followed and loved. And Q1 was jam packed full of huge earnings beats from the AI complex. Who was shocked that Nvidia&#8217;s still doing well? There Is a Bear Market in Euphoria The latest AAII Sentiment shows that just 31.7% of investors are bullish. This is below the long-term 37.5% average, despite the $SPX remaining in striking distance of the 7517.12 all-time high set last week. Meanwhile, CNN&#8217;s Fear &#038; Greed index is at 61, indicating modest greed: &nbsp; This is a positive for the market because it shows a lack of euphoria. You&#8217;d think investors would be more bullish because of a mild easing of Middle East tensions and crude oil slipping. But perhaps the crowd is more concerned about inflation and the Fed. Either way, market tops are often (but not always) market by overly bullish sentiment. We are not even in the neighborhood of bullish. Speaking of the Fed&#8230; Rate Hikes En Route? While President Trump has been adamant we need lower interest rates, the market is pricing in higher rates following a series of hot inflation readings. The CME&#8217;s FedWatch Tool\u00a0now shows the market is pricing in a 0% chance of lower rates at year-end: Plus: 29.9% chance of rates staying the same 70.1% chance of rates going up And that 70.1% is divided up as follows. 42.4% chance of 25 bps in hikes 22.1% chance of 50 bps in hikes 5.2% chance of 75 bps in hikes 0.5% chance of 100 bps in hikes So why is the market so strong? Shouldn&#8217;t the prospect of higher rates hurt equities? For now, investors and traders are focused on booming corporate earnings amid a major AI-driven capex cycle. Rate expectations can change drastically month-to-month, but the earnings\/AI story ain&#8217;t going away.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":67239,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-79501","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79501","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79501"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79501\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":79518,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79501\/revisions\/79518"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/67239"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79501"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79501"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79501"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}