{"id":79465,"date":"2026-05-15T14:51:10","date_gmt":"2026-05-15T18:51:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/?p=79465"},"modified":"2026-05-15T14:59:53","modified_gmt":"2026-05-15T18:59:53","slug":"nvidia-question-changed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2026\/05\/15\/nvidia-question-changed\/","title":{"rendered":"Nvidia: The Big Question Changed"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>President Trump made nice with China, the S&P 500 hit 7,500+ for the first time ever, and the 10-year yield is rising like a phoenix.<\/p>\n<p>So it's time to look at the 5 things you need to know right now:<\/p>\n<h2>1. Nvidia Earnings Are About to Hit. JR Still Loves the Stock.<\/h2>\n<p>AI kingpin <strong>Nvidia<\/strong> (NVDA) reports earnings on Wednesday, May 20 after the close.<\/p>\n<p>The stock is up nearly 40% from the March lows, and expectations look higher.<\/p>\n<p>Earnings estimates have been rising and AI capex spending by hyperscalers like <strong>Alphabet<\/strong> (GOOGL), <strong>Microsoft<\/strong> (MSFT), and <strong>Amazon<\/strong> (AMZN) just keeps going up.<\/p>\n<p>A couple of years ago, a common question was <em>&#8220;how long can these companies keep spending more money?&#8221;<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Now it feels like there's no limit.<\/p>\n<p>JR Romero, who recently launched the new <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/secure.t3live.com\/premarket-pit-sales-annual\/\">Premarket Pit VTF\u00ae<\/a><\/strong><\/span>, told us again why he thinks Nvidia is going to $258:<\/p>\n<p><iframe title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/FTBsMV5f5Jw?si=AP4UgWuPE96rEC7c&start=439\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>You can learn about JR's other services, including <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/secure.t3live.com\/sultans-of-swing-trading-main\/\">Sultans of Swing Trading<\/a><\/strong><\/span>, in <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=YAYDC2LboRM\">this new video.<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<h2><strong>2. The Fed Is a Mystery Machine<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Inflation remains stubbornly high, judging by this week's CPI and PPI report, making it hard for the Fed to cut rates.<\/p>\n<p>And thanks to the Iran war, oil looks mighty strong:<\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-79473\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-1.20.32-PM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"973\" height=\"753\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-1.20.32-PM.png 973w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-1.20.32-PM-300x232.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-1.20.32-PM-150x116.png 150w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-1.20.32-PM-768x594.png 768w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-1.20.32-PM-80x62.png 80w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-1.20.32-PM-220x170.png 220w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-1.20.32-PM-129x100.png 129w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-1.20.32-PM-194x150.png 194w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-1.20.32-PM-308x238.png 308w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-1.20.32-PM-536x415.png 536w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-1.20.32-PM-629x487.png 629w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-1.20.32-PM-769x595.png 769w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 973px) 100vw, 973px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The market is now pricing in a 48.7% chance of a single 25 bps rate cut this year, and a mere 0.4% chance of 50 bps in cuts. That's according to the CME's FedWatch tool:<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-79472\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-1.13.43-PM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"916\" height=\"726\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-1.13.43-PM.png 916w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-1.13.43-PM-300x238.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-1.13.43-PM-150x119.png 150w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-1.13.43-PM-768x609.png 768w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-1.13.43-PM-80x63.png 80w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-1.13.43-PM-220x174.png 220w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-1.13.43-PM-126x100.png 126w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-1.13.43-PM-189x150.png 189w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-1.13.43-PM-524x415.png 524w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-1.13.43-PM-614x487.png 614w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-1.13.43-PM-751x595.png 751w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 916px) 100vw, 916px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the Fed is about to undergo a major transition when Jerome Powell passes the ball to Kevin Warsh, <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/05\/15\/us\/politics\/jerome-powell-kevin-warsh-federal-reserve.html\">who is calling for a regime change<\/a><\/strong><\/span> at the FOMC.<\/p>\n<p>And if Warsh doesn't play ball with President Trump on rate cuts, that could set the stage for another White House vs. Fed rivalry, raising fresh concerns about the independence of the FOMC.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>3. Robinhood May Be the Best Crypto Play<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>If you're bullish on Bitcoin and Ethereum (I have no opinion myself), take a look at Robinhood.<\/p>\n<p>The stock is down -32% this year, drastically underperforming peers like <strong>Interactive Brokers<\/strong> (IBKR), <strong>Charles<\/strong> <strong>Schwab<\/strong> (SCHW), and <strong>Coinbase<\/strong> (COIN).<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-79468\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-11.29.57-AM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"993\" height=\"832\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-11.29.57-AM.png 993w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-11.29.57-AM-300x251.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-11.29.57-AM-150x126.png 150w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-11.29.57-AM-768x643.png 768w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-11.29.57-AM-80x67.png 80w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-11.29.57-AM-220x184.png 220w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-11.29.57-AM-119x100.png 119w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-11.29.57-AM-179x150.png 179w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-11.29.57-AM-284x238.png 284w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-11.29.57-AM-495x415.png 495w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-11.29.57-AM-581x487.png 581w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-11.29.57-AM-710x595.png 710w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 993px) 100vw, 993px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Why? Because Robinhood's crypto revenue fell off a cliff.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, Interactive Brokers has been the industry dominator, riding strength in equity markets and announcing new initiatives like its new Prediction-Market Platform.<\/p>\n<p><em>(note: IBKR is one of my biggest personal holdings and I have zero plans of selling)<\/em><\/p>\n<p>So if you believe in a crypto comeback, Robinhood may be an interesting way to play.<\/p>\n<p>Because the market would price in a rapid rebound in the company's crypto revenues.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>4. Earnings Season Has Been a Monster<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>89% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q1 earnings and the numbers are fantastic, according to <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/insight.factset.com\/market-is-punishing-negative-eps-surprises-more-than-average-for-q1\">FactSet<\/a><\/strong><\/span> data.<\/p>\n<p>-Q1 EPS growth is trending to 27.7% vs. 13.1% expected back on March 31<br \/>\n-10 of 11 sectors have beaten expectations<br \/>\n-84% of names beat EPS estimates well above historical norms<\/p>\n<p>However, there is one dark side.<\/p>\n<p>The market is punishing misses more than it is rewarding beats.<\/p>\n<p>The average return after an earnings miss is a -4.9% decline. Look at the right side of the chart.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/pbs.twimg.com\/media\/HITfHGPXcAAZuBj?format=png&name=900x900\" alt=\"Image\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The average return after a beat is just +1.1%.<\/p>\n<p>So while the numbers are amazing overall, if you pick a bad name, you're getting spanked hard.<\/p>\n<p>And interestingly this amazing earnings season came with relative high expectations because of rising analyst estimates, and the Iran war spiking oil prices.<\/p>\n<h2><strong><span class=\"css-1jxf684 r-bcqeeo r-1ttztb7 r-qvutc0 r-poiln3\">5. Investors Are NOT Bulled Up <\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><span class=\"css-1jxf684 r-bcqeeo r-1ttztb7 r-qvutc0 r-poiln3\">The lastest AAII Sentiment Survey showed that 38.3% of investors are bullish. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/pbs.twimg.com\/media\/HISHl9gWoAAbUcl?format=jpg&name=medium\" alt=\"Image\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"css-1jxf684 r-bcqeeo r-1ttztb7 r-qvutc0 r-poiln3\">This is the 3rd straight week of neutral-ish sentiment despite equities <\/span><span class=\"css-1jxf684 r-bcqeeo r-1ttztb7 r-qvutc0 r-poiln3\">making a string of new highs. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"css-1jxf684 r-bcqeeo r-1ttztb7 r-qvutc0 r-poiln3\">Meanwhile, CNN's Fear & Greed Index is at 65 showing modest greed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-79466\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-11.24.09-AM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"611\" height=\"544\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-11.24.09-AM.png 611w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-11.24.09-AM-300x267.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-11.24.09-AM-150x134.png 150w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-11.24.09-AM-80x71.png 80w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-11.24.09-AM-220x196.png 220w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-11.24.09-AM-112x100.png 112w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-11.24.09-AM-168x150.png 168w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-11.24.09-AM-267x238.png 267w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-11.24.09-AM-466x415.png 466w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-15-at-11.24.09-AM-547x487.png 547w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 611px) 100vw, 611px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"css-1jxf684 r-bcqeeo r-1ttztb7 r-qvutc0 r-poiln3\">The CBOE Equity Put\/Call ratio is hovering around 0.50. That means options traders are optimistic, but not overly so. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"css-1jxf684 r-bcqeeo r-1ttztb7 r-qvutc0 r-poiln3\">The overall theme here is that market participants are cautiously optimistic.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"css-1jxf684 r-bcqeeo r-1ttztb7 r-qvutc0 r-poiln3\">They are not falling over themselves to declare this the best market ever, even after a big rally from the March lows.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>President Trump made nice with China, the S&#038;P 500 hit 7,500+ for the first time ever, and the 10-year yield is rising like a phoenix. So it&#8217;s time to look at the 5 things you need to know right now: 1. Nvidia Earnings Are About to Hit. JR Still Loves the Stock. AI kingpin Nvidia (NVDA) reports earnings on Wednesday, May 20 after the close. The stock is up nearly 40% from the March lows, and expectations look higher. Earnings estimates have been rising and AI capex spending by hyperscalers like Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Amazon (AMZN) just keeps going up. A couple of years ago, a common question was &#8220;how long can these companies keep spending more money?&#8221; Now it feels like there&#8217;s no limit. JR Romero, who recently launched the new Premarket Pit VTF\u00ae, told us again why he thinks Nvidia is going to $258: You can learn about JR&#8217;s other services, including Sultans of Swing Trading, in this new video. 2. The Fed Is a Mystery Machine Inflation remains stubbornly high, judging by this week&#8217;s CPI and PPI report, making it hard for the Fed to cut rates. And thanks to the Iran war, oil looks mighty strong: The market is now pricing in a 48.7% chance of a single 25 bps rate cut this year, and a mere 0.4% chance of 50 bps in cuts. That&#8217;s according to the CME&#8217;s FedWatch tool: Meanwhile, the Fed is about to undergo a major transition when Jerome Powell passes the ball to Kevin Warsh, who is calling for a regime change at the FOMC. And if Warsh doesn&#8217;t play ball with President Trump on rate cuts, that could set the stage for another White House vs. Fed rivalry, raising fresh concerns about the independence of the FOMC. 3. Robinhood May Be the Best Crypto Play If you&#8217;re bullish on Bitcoin and Ethereum (I have no opinion myself), take a look at Robinhood. The stock is down -32% this year, drastically underperforming peers like Interactive Brokers (IBKR), Charles Schwab (SCHW), and Coinbase (COIN). Why? Because Robinhood&#8217;s crypto revenue fell off a cliff. Meanwhile, Interactive Brokers has been the industry dominator, riding strength in equity markets and announcing new initiatives like its new Prediction-Market Platform. (note: IBKR is one of my biggest personal holdings and I have zero plans of selling) So if you believe in a crypto comeback, Robinhood may be an interesting way to play. Because the market would price in a rapid rebound in the company&#8217;s crypto revenues. 4. Earnings Season Has Been a Monster 89% of S&#038;P 500 companies have reported Q1 earnings and the numbers are fantastic, according to FactSet data. -Q1 EPS growth is trending to 27.7% vs. 13.1% expected back on March 31 -10 of 11 sectors have beaten expectations -84% of names beat EPS estimates well above historical norms However, there is one dark side. The market is punishing misses more than it is rewarding beats. The average return after an earnings miss is a -4.9% decline. Look at the right side of the chart. The average return after a beat is just +1.1%. So while the numbers are amazing overall, if you pick a bad name, you&#8217;re getting spanked hard. And interestingly this amazing earnings season came with relative high expectations because of rising analyst estimates, and the Iran war spiking oil prices. 5. Investors Are NOT Bulled Up The lastest AAII Sentiment Survey showed that 38.3% of investors are bullish. This is the 3rd straight week of neutral-ish sentiment despite equities making a string of new highs. Meanwhile, CNN&#8217;s Fear &#038; Greed Index is at 65 showing modest greed.\u00a0 The CBOE Equity Put\/Call ratio is hovering around 0.50. That means options traders are optimistic, but not overly so. The overall theme here is that market participants are cautiously optimistic. They are not falling over themselves to declare this the best market ever, even after a big rally from the March lows.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":67239,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-79465","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79465","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79465"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79465\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":79478,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79465\/revisions\/79478"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/67239"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79465"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79465"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79465"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}