{"id":79267,"date":"2026-04-02T15:14:02","date_gmt":"2026-04-02T19:14:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/?p=79267"},"modified":"2026-04-02T15:19:37","modified_gmt":"2026-04-02T19:19:37","slug":"oil-vs-stocks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2026\/04\/02\/oil-vs-stocks\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil vs. Stocks: Who’s Lying?"},"content":{"rendered":"

We survived another week in this topsy-turvy market. These are the 5 things you need to know.<\/p>\n

The Oil vs. Stocks Conundrum<\/h2>\n

President Trump's Iran-focused primetime address on Wednesday wasn't exactly a roaring success thanks to mixed signals.<\/p>\n

He said the operation is “nearing completion.”<\/p>\n

But he also said the US would hit Iran “extremely hard” over the next 2-3 weeks.<\/p>\n

We could be arguing semantics here. Maybe 2-3 weeks qualifies as getting close to the end.<\/p>\n

But it appears that equities are looking past the turmoil.<\/p>\n

SPY<\/strong> is now down just 6.3% from all-time highs even though oil just did this:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/strong><\/h2>\n

And even though rate cuts might be off the table this year.<\/p>\n

This is where it gets tricky.<\/p>\n

Stocks are pricing in resolution on Iran.<\/p>\n

Oil is doing the opposite.<\/p>\n

Which side is right?<\/p>\n

Which one is lying?<\/p>\n

This is the toughest question in the market right now.<\/p>\n

My guess is that stocks are right about oil. What's yours?<\/p>\n

We've Got Gas, and It's Very Expensive<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Traders are now pricing in a 25% chance of lower rates this year, up from just 1% last week.<\/p>\n

Still, we get NFP on Friday April 3, followed by CPI, GDP, and the Core PCE Price Index next week.<\/p>\n

So God only knows where this number will be by next Friday.<\/p>\n

But the big topic on consumers' minds is the price of gasoline, which has skyrocketed:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Aside from the economic fallout, high gas prices could impact the midterm elections later this year.<\/p>\n

And there's no telling when we get relief, because Iran is digging in its heels, likely because they know that high energy prices hurt President Trump.<\/p>\n

There's Been a Massive Invasion of Privacy<\/strong><\/h2>\n

JR Romero has been warning that Private Credit is a disaster waiting to happen.<\/p>\n