{"id":79164,"date":"2026-03-06T14:43:06","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T19:43:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/?p=79164"},"modified":"2026-03-06T14:43:06","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T19:43:06","slug":"did-crude-oil-just-peak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2026\/03\/06\/did-crude-oil-just-peak\/","title":{"rendered":"Did Crude Oil Just Peak?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Traders are edge amid the US and Israel launching a major attack on Iran.<\/p>\n<p>So let's look at the 5 things you need to know right now.<\/p>\n<h2>1. Crude Oil Went Parabolic. Did It Peak?<\/h2>\n<p>The military conflict in Iran sent crude oil up over 30% this week.<\/p>\n<p>And the RSI on crude oil futures hovered around 87 Friday morning.<\/p>\n<p>In recent years, crude oil has tended to fade after hitting <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.t3live.com\/rsi-swing-trading\/\">RSI<\/a><\/strong><\/span> levels in the 85+ range.<\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-79176\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-12.58.17-PM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"844\" height=\"702\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-12.58.17-PM.png 844w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-12.58.17-PM-300x250.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-12.58.17-PM-150x125.png 150w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-12.58.17-PM-768x639.png 768w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-12.58.17-PM-80x67.png 80w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-12.58.17-PM-220x183.png 220w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-12.58.17-PM-120x100.png 120w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-12.58.17-PM-180x150.png 180w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-12.58.17-PM-286x238.png 286w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-12.58.17-PM-499x415.png 499w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-12.58.17-PM-586x487.png 586w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-12.58.17-PM-715x595.png 715w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 844px) 100vw, 844px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>So should we short crude oil?<\/p>\n<p>It's a tough question.<\/p>\n<p>Because we could walk into any kind of news come Monday morning.<\/p>\n<p>So shorting oil feels like a binary bet on things like:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The status of the Strait of Hormuz<\/li>\n<li>Whether Iran is open to a deal<\/li>\n<li>What President Trump says on Truth Social at 3 in the morning<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Interestingly, the red hot oil service sector sold down hard this week, which feels like a massive &#8220;sell the news.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-79169\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-10.16.51-AM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"930\" height=\"752\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-10.16.51-AM.png 930w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-10.16.51-AM-300x243.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-10.16.51-AM-150x121.png 150w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-10.16.51-AM-768x621.png 768w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-10.16.51-AM-80x65.png 80w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-10.16.51-AM-220x178.png 220w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-10.16.51-AM-124x100.png 124w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-10.16.51-AM-186x150.png 186w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-10.16.51-AM-294x238.png 294w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-10.16.51-AM-513x415.png 513w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-10.16.51-AM-602x487.png 602w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-10.16.51-AM-736x595.png 736w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 930px) 100vw, 930px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Oil service stocks had been ripping because higher oil prices mean more oil projects become economically feasible. (plus the favorable regulatory backdrop)<\/p>\n<p>But now it looks like an awful lot of news was priced in.<\/p>\n<p>And believe it or not, OIH was as high as $440 early Monday morning.<\/p>\n<p>Now it's around $375, 14% off that high.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>2. Lousy Jobs Report = FOMC Rate Cuts?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On Friday morning, we got the February Nonfarm Payrolls report, and it was a mess, even taking into account temporary factors impacting the numbers.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But is the FOMC needle moving?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Yes. A little bit.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Markets are now pricing in a 50.4% chance of a rate cut by June, up from 33% yesterday.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-79172\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Economic-Data-Charts-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1035\" height=\"677\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Economic-Data-Charts-1.png 1035w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Economic-Data-Charts-1-300x196.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Economic-Data-Charts-1-1024x670.png 1024w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Economic-Data-Charts-1-150x98.png 150w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Economic-Data-Charts-1-768x502.png 768w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Economic-Data-Charts-1-80x52.png 80w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Economic-Data-Charts-1-220x144.png 220w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Economic-Data-Charts-1-153x100.png 153w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Economic-Data-Charts-1-229x150.png 229w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Economic-Data-Charts-1-364x238.png 364w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Economic-Data-Charts-1-634x415.png 634w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Economic-Data-Charts-1-745x487.png 745w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Economic-Data-Charts-1-910x595.png 910w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1035px) 100vw, 1035px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>So the market sees:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>42.3% chance of 25 bps in cuts<\/li>\n<li>7.8% chance of 50 bps in cuts<\/li>\n<li>0.3% chance of 75 bps in cuts<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Of course, the rising price of oil is inflationary.<\/p>\n<p>And next week, we have multiple key US economic data reports including CPI, Existing Home Sales, ADP Employment Change, GDP, and Core Price Index.<\/p>\n<p>So we should get more insights into the state of the US economy.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>3. Palantir Perked Up<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Most tech stocks had a rough week.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Palantir<\/strong> (PLTR) was an exception thanks to its close ties with the US and Israeli military:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-79171\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-10.32.57-AM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"931\" height=\"754\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-10.32.57-AM.png 931w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-10.32.57-AM-300x243.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-10.32.57-AM-150x121.png 150w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-10.32.57-AM-768x622.png 768w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-10.32.57-AM-80x65.png 80w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-10.32.57-AM-220x178.png 220w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-10.32.57-AM-123x100.png 123w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-10.32.57-AM-185x150.png 185w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-10.32.57-AM-294x238.png 294w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-10.32.57-AM-512x415.png 512w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-10.32.57-AM-601x487.png 601w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-10.32.57-AM-735x595.png 735w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 931px) 100vw, 931px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Palantir's AI systems are reportedly used for applications like target identification.<\/p>\n<p>The military-industrial complex is rapidly becoming the military-industrial-data complex and Palantir (along with companies like Anthropic) is at the heart of it.<\/p>\n<p><em><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thetimes.com\/world\/middle-east\/article\/palantir-ai-software-us-iran-war-lwld892z9?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqds4JM9Lm0wyidQ5TKoUxKta1C13_VeiCYtixy7PyclpXF2gFNypON4&gaa_ts=69ab2732&gaa_sig=SsAQBmn9XC5Is7WYxwdf5D_fiYPjiohF2N1XJ8tT7_FTHgweqv7L4v3lNJibBmBw2XpgIm-FrPhsRruSy5Qfrg%3D%3D\">The Times<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/em> reports that 20 soldiers using Palantir AI are accomplishing a workload that required a team of 2,000 during the US invasion of Iraq.<\/p>\n<p>Traders often ask the most obvious question about Palantir: why is this stock trading at 50 times sales?<\/p>\n<p>The answer is simple.<\/p>\n<p>The US military can't (or won't?) live without Palantir's technology.<\/p>\n<p>And the US military wants to keep that tech to itself.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>4. Traders Are in a Funk<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Investors and traders are still in a funk.<\/p>\n<p>The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 33.1% of investors are bullish.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/pbs.twimg.com\/media\/HCpjNLNWAAAMJzt?format=png&name=small\" alt=\"Image\" \/><\/p>\n<p>This is the third straight week of below-average bullishness.<\/p>\n<p>And it's well off the 49.5% high set on January 14.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the CBOE equity-put call ratio is 0.6o, which is in the range of neutral.<\/p>\n<p>So traders are far from euphoric.<\/p>\n<p>This is a positive because it implies few traders are all-in bullish.<\/p>\n<p>In fact, it seems like everyone's waiting for resolution on Iran before placing their chips down.<\/p>\n<p>And odds are, if equity markets keep weakening, bullish sentiment should drop below 30% next week.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>5. An Ugly Stock Is Looking Beautiful<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>The single worst stock in the S&P 500 this year is tech research & advisory company <strong>Gartner<\/strong> (IT). According to conventional wisdom, Gartner's business looks ripe to be eaten by AI.<\/p>\n<p>On February 3,\u00a0 the stock dropped 20% after the company reported weak guidance.<\/p>\n<p>But on March 5, Sami Abusaad added the stock to <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.t3live.com\/blog\/sami-abusaad-number-ones\/\">his Number Ones swing trading newsletter<\/a><\/strong><\/span>\u00a0at $167.63.<\/p>\n<p>And it's starting to fill that big ugly earnings gap:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-79177\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-2.27.24-PM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"891\" height=\"645\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-2.27.24-PM.png 891w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-2.27.24-PM-300x217.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-2.27.24-PM-150x109.png 150w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-2.27.24-PM-768x556.png 768w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-2.27.24-PM-80x58.png 80w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-2.27.24-PM-220x159.png 220w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-2.27.24-PM-138x100.png 138w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-2.27.24-PM-207x150.png 207w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-2.27.24-PM-329x238.png 329w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-2.27.24-PM-573x415.png 573w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-2.27.24-PM-673x487.png 673w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-06-at-2.27.24-PM-822x595.png 822w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 891px) 100vw, 891px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Wall Street's indifferent on the stock, with 4 buys, 9 holds, and 2 sell ratings.<\/p>\n<p>But the stock looks like it's under accumulation.<\/p>\n<p>Will be interesting to see where it is in a month.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Traders are edge amid the US and Israel launching a major attack on Iran. So let&#8217;s look at the 5 things you need to know right now. 1. Crude Oil Went Parabolic. Did It Peak? The military conflict in Iran sent crude oil up over 30% this week. And the RSI on crude oil futures hovered around 87 Friday morning. In recent years, crude oil has tended to fade after hitting RSI levels in the 85+ range. So should we short crude oil? It&#8217;s a tough question. Because we could walk into any kind of news come Monday morning. So shorting oil feels like a binary bet on things like: The status of the Strait of Hormuz Whether Iran is open to a deal What President Trump says on Truth Social at 3 in the morning Interestingly, the red hot oil service sector sold down hard this week, which feels like a massive &#8220;sell the news.&#8221; Oil service stocks had been ripping because higher oil prices mean more oil projects become economically feasible. (plus the favorable regulatory backdrop) But now it looks like an awful lot of news was priced in. And believe it or not, OIH was as high as $440 early Monday morning. Now it&#8217;s around $375, 14% off that high. 2. Lousy Jobs Report = FOMC Rate Cuts? On Friday morning, we got the February Nonfarm Payrolls report, and it was a mess, even taking into account temporary factors impacting the numbers. But is the FOMC needle moving? Yes. A little bit. Markets are now pricing in a 50.4% chance of a rate cut by June, up from 33% yesterday. So the market sees: 42.3% chance of 25 bps in cuts 7.8% chance of 50 bps in cuts 0.3% chance of 75 bps in cuts Of course, the rising price of oil is inflationary. And next week, we have multiple key US economic data reports including CPI, Existing Home Sales, ADP Employment Change, GDP, and Core Price Index. So we should get more insights into the state of the US economy. 3. Palantir Perked Up Most tech stocks had a rough week. Palantir (PLTR) was an exception thanks to its close ties with the US and Israeli military: Palantir&#8217;s AI systems are reportedly used for applications like target identification. The military-industrial complex is rapidly becoming the military-industrial-data complex and Palantir (along with companies like Anthropic) is at the heart of it. The Times reports that 20 soldiers using Palantir AI are accomplishing a workload that required a team of 2,000 during the US invasion of Iraq. Traders often ask the most obvious question about Palantir: why is this stock trading at 50 times sales? The answer is simple. The US military can&#8217;t (or won&#8217;t?) live without Palantir&#8217;s technology. And the US military wants to keep that tech to itself. 4. Traders Are in a Funk Investors and traders are still in a funk. The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 33.1% of investors are bullish. This is the third straight week of below-average bullishness. And it&#8217;s well off the 49.5% high set on January 14. Meanwhile, the CBOE equity-put call ratio is 0.6o, which is in the range of neutral. So traders are far from euphoric. This is a positive because it implies few traders are all-in bullish. In fact, it seems like everyone&#8217;s waiting for resolution on Iran before placing their chips down. And odds are, if equity markets keep weakening, bullish sentiment should drop below 30% next week. 5. An Ugly Stock Is Looking Beautiful The single worst stock in the S&#038;P 500 this year is tech research &#038; advisory company Gartner (IT). According to conventional wisdom, Gartner&#8217;s business looks ripe to be eaten by AI. On February 3,\u00a0 the stock dropped 20% after the company reported weak guidance. But on March 5, Sami Abusaad added the stock to his Number Ones swing trading newsletter\u00a0at $167.63. And it&#8217;s starting to fill that big ugly earnings gap: Wall Street&#8217;s indifferent on the stock, with 4 buys, 9 holds, and 2 sell ratings. But the stock looks like it&#8217;s under accumulation. Will be interesting to see where it is in a month.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":67239,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-79164","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79164","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79164"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79164\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":79181,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79164\/revisions\/79181"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/67239"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79164"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79164"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79164"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}