{"id":78874,"date":"2026-01-23T15:23:20","date_gmt":"2026-01-23T20:23:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/?p=78874"},"modified":"2026-01-23T15:37:09","modified_gmt":"2026-01-23T20:37:09","slug":"most-dangerous-trade-of-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2026\/01\/23\/most-dangerous-trade-of-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"The Most Dangerous Trade of 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

We're coming off another fun week with skyrocketing metals prices, President Trump Tacoing on Greenland, and earnings season heating off.<\/p>\n

So it's time for the 5 charts you need to see right now:<\/p>\n

1. \u00a0Sandisk Is the Most Dangerous Stock in the World<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Sandisk<\/strong> (SNDK) is the #1 stock in the S&P 500 in 2026.<\/p>\n

And it's the most dangerous stock in the world… to longs and shorts.<\/p>\n

Thanks to the AI boom, there's not enough memory and storage to go around. That's been a boon for Sandisk, along with its peers Micron<\/strong> (MU) and Western Digital<\/strong> (WDC).<\/p>\n

But what's really interesting about Sandisk is that it's heavily shorted.<\/p>\n

According to KoyFin data, 6% of the float is sold short:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Meanwhile, earnings estimates have skyrocketed since the company came public again last year:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

So we have 6% of the float short, while earnings estimates are going through the roof because of a massive supply-demand imbalance.<\/p>\n

It looks like the shorts are trying to predict a cyclical top into earnings on Thursday, January 29.<\/p>\n

And the optimists think things can only get better.<\/p>\n

This is quite tricky.<\/p>\n

One one hand, it might have already gone too far, too fast.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, SanDisk could see a mountain of good news next week.<\/p>\n

Aside from its own earnings report Thursday, ee get earnings from Microsoft<\/strong> (MSFT), Meta<\/strong> (META), and Lam Research<\/strong> (LRCX) on Wednesday. All are likely to give bullish outlooks on the AI cycle. And Lam Research is a Sandisk supplier.<\/p>\n

If you're playing it… good luck.<\/p>\n

2. The Silver Squeeze Is Still Raging<\/h2>\n

2026 is still the year of heavy metal.<\/p>\n

Silver is on top with uranium and gold also in strong uptrends.<\/p>\n

They're all crushing the SPY:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The metals are being boosted from a variety factors including industrial demand, central bank buying, and good old-fashioned momentum.<\/p>\n

And here's another example of how extreme the #silversqueeze is.<\/p>\n

We searched Google Trends for “silver price” and that chart is just as parabolic as SLV:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

So yes, the general public is here.<\/p>\n

3. The Energy Boom Continues<\/strong><\/h2>\n

On January 5, OIH put in the “Gap of the Year”<\/a> <\/strong>on President Trump's presumed takeover of the Venezuela oil industry.<\/p>\n

Then it was off to the races, and OIH is up 21% on the year:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

But it gets much more interesting when we take a long-term view.<\/p>\n

OIH is still way off the $935.46 all-time high from 2014.<\/p>\n

And it's right at resistance in the $343 area:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The kicker here might be Europe.<\/p>\n

If they get friendlier to oil after very mixed results from alternative energy, there could be a global energy production spending boom.<\/p>\n

And there could be a massive catch-up play for OIH.<\/p>\n

4. Russell Just Reversed<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The FOMC is on Wednesday, and the market is pricing in a 2.8% chance of a 25 bps rate cut.<\/p>\n

And of course, the Fed's forward direction is hard to predict.<\/p>\n

So this week was a good time for the Russell 2000 Index to take a break after a furious start to 2026.<\/p>\n

IWM put in a big topping tail Wednesday with nasty downside follow-through on Friday:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

And it's not even at the 20-day moving average yet.<\/p>\n

If next week's earnings stink, IWM could lead to the downside.<\/p>\n

Speaking of earnings…<\/p>\n

5. Earnings Season Is Upside Down<\/h2>\n

According to FactSet<\/a><\/strong><\/span>, 13% of S&P 500 companies have reported so far, and things don't look great so far:<\/p>\n

Earnings growth is tracking at 8.2%, below the 8.3% expected on December 31.<\/p>\n

And companies are reporting earnings that are 5.3% above estimates, below the 5-year average of 8.7%.<\/p>\n

In recent quarters, we've been used to estimates coming down, and companies crushing those lowered estimates.<\/p>\n

Q4 2025 earnings season has been a flip-flop. Estimates have been on the upswing, and now the beats are getting smaller.<\/p>\n

Should we freak out?<\/p>\n

Not until next week when Apple<\/strong> (AAPL), Microsoft<\/strong> (MSFT), Meta<\/strong> Platforms<\/strong> (META), Visa<\/strong> (V), Mastercard<\/strong> (MA), and other indexy heavyweights report.<\/p>\n

They should push that 8.2% number up.<\/p>\n

With an emphasis on the word “should.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We’re coming off another fun week with skyrocketing metals prices, President Trump Tacoing on Greenland, and earnings season heating off. So it’s time for the 5 charts you need to see right now: 1. \u00a0Sandisk Is the Most Dangerous Stock in the World Sandisk (SNDK) is the #1 stock in the S&P 500 in 2026. And it’s the most dangerous stock in the world… to longs and shorts. Thanks to the AI boom, there’s not enough memory and storage to go around. That’s been a boon for Sandisk, along with its peers Micron (MU) and Western Digital (WDC). But what’s really interesting about Sandisk is that it’s heavily shorted. According to KoyFin data, 6% of the float is sold short: Meanwhile, earnings estimates have skyrocketed since the company came public again last year: So we have 6% of the float short, while earnings estimates are going through the roof because of a massive supply-demand imbalance. It looks like the shorts are trying to predict a cyclical top into earnings on Thursday, January 29. And the optimists think things can only get better. This is quite tricky. One one hand, it might have already gone too far, too fast. On the other hand, SanDisk could see a mountain of good news next week. Aside from its own earnings report Thursday, ee get earnings from Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and Lam Research (LRCX) on Wednesday. All are likely to give bullish outlooks on the AI cycle. And Lam Research is a Sandisk supplier. If you’re playing it… good luck. 2. The Silver Squeeze Is Still Raging 2026 is still the year of heavy metal. Silver is on top with uranium and gold also in strong uptrends. They’re all crushing the SPY: The metals are being boosted from a variety factors including industrial demand, central bank buying, and good old-fashioned momentum. And here’s another example of how extreme the #silversqueeze is. We searched Google Trends for “silver price” and that chart is just as parabolic as SLV: So yes, the general public is here. 3. The Energy Boom Continues On January 5, OIH put in the “Gap of the Year” on President Trump’s presumed takeover of the Venezuela oil industry. Then it was off to the races, and OIH is up 21% on the year: But it gets much more interesting when we take a long-term view. OIH is still way off the $935.46 all-time high from 2014. And it’s right at resistance in the $343 area: The kicker here might be Europe. If they get friendlier to oil after very mixed results from alternative energy, there could be a global energy production spending boom. And there could be a massive catch-up play for OIH. 4. Russell Just Reversed The FOMC is on Wednesday, and the market is pricing in a 2.8% chance of a 25 bps rate cut. And of course, the Fed’s forward direction is hard to predict. So this week was a good time for the Russell 2000 Index to take a break after a furious start to 2026. IWM put in a big topping tail Wednesday with nasty downside follow-through on Friday: And it’s not even at the 20-day moving average yet. If next week’s earnings stink, IWM could lead to the downside. Speaking of earnings… 5. Earnings Season Is Upside Down According to FactSet, 13% of S&P 500 companies have reported so far, and things don’t look great so far: Earnings growth is tracking at 8.2%, below the 8.3% expected on December 31. And companies are reporting earnings that are 5.3% above estimates, below the 5-year average of 8.7%. In recent quarters, we’ve been used to estimates coming down, and companies crushing those lowered estimates. Q4 2025 earnings season has been a flip-flop. Estimates have been on the upswing, and now the beats are getting smaller. Should we freak out? Not until next week when Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), and other indexy heavyweights report. They should push that 8.2% number up. With an emphasis on the word “should.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":67239,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-78874","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78874","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=78874"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78874\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":78919,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78874\/revisions\/78919"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/67239"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=78874"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=78874"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=78874"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}