{"id":78246,"date":"2025-09-12T17:30:41","date_gmt":"2025-09-12T21:30:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/?p=78246"},"modified":"2025-09-12T17:33:27","modified_gmt":"2025-09-12T21:33:27","slug":"fed-dead-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2025\/09\/12\/fed-dead-ahead\/","title":{"rendered":"8 Things You Need to Know: The Fed Is Dead Ahead"},"content":{"rendered":"

1. The Fed Is Dead Ahead<\/h2>\n

Buckle up buttercups, because the FOMC Rate Decision is dead ahead.<\/p>\n

Following this week's CPI and PPI reports and last week's stinker of a jobs report, the CME's FedWatch tool is pricing in a 100% probability of a rate cut.<\/p>\n

As you can see on the right side of this chart, the odds show a 96.4% chance of a 25 bps cut. The odds of a 50 ups cut are a mere 3.6%.<\/p>\n

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But of course, traders are looking for guidance on the future rate trajectory, which feels like a mystery at this point.<\/p>\n

But what are equities saying?<\/p>\n

2. Rate Sensitive Stocks Are Rocking<\/h2>\n

Homebuilders and small caps are rocking in Q3.<\/p>\n

Look at these numbers:<\/p>\n

The SPDR Homebuilders ETF<\/strong> (XHB) is up 17.9%, while the iShares Russell 2000<\/strong> ETF (IWM) is up 10.4%.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, SPY<\/strong> is up just 6.4%.<\/p>\n

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So traders are absolutely pricing in a more dovish Fed.<\/p>\n

3. Oracle Stole Nvidia's Crown<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Oracle<\/strong> (ORCL) popped 36% on Wednesday after the company said AI-driven cloud revenue will hit $144 billion by FY2030.<\/p>\n

That's more than 7X what it will make this year, taking the entire trading and investing world by storm.<\/p>\n

The stock is now up 77% YTD, knocking Nvidia off the top of the megacap AI heap.<\/p>\n

And Oracle estimates are going through the roof.<\/p>\n

According to Koyfin data:<\/p>\n

The FY2028 consensus revenue estimate went from $99.6 billion to $114 billion. That's a 14% bump OVERNIGHT.<\/p>\n

The FY2029 consensus revenue estimate went from $120.4 billion to $165 billion. An increase of 37%.<\/p>\n

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We haven't seen anything like this since Nvidia<\/strong> (NVDA) in late 2023, when the AI story was just emerging.<\/p>\n

4. The 90's Are BACK<\/h2>\n

Speaking of Oracle, have you noticed how many 1990's stock market darlings are up huge in 2025?<\/p>\n

These are the best performing S&P 500 stocks of 2025:<\/p>\n

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  • Western Digital<\/strong> (WDC)<\/li>\n
  • Micron<\/strong> (MU)<\/li>\n
  • CVS<\/strong> (CVS)<\/li>\n
  • General Electric<\/strong> (GE)<\/li>\n
  • Corning<\/strong> (GLW)<\/li>\n
  • Lam Research<\/strong> (LRCX)<\/li>\n
  • Broadcom<\/strong> (AVGO)<\/li>\n
  • KLA Tencor<\/strong> (KLAC)<\/li>\n
  • Jabil<\/strong> (JBL)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Most of these names have ties to AI, data storage, and the power grid, so it makes sense.<\/p>\n

    Plus, Old Navy is pushing Nirvana shirts and the Backstreet Boys sold out The Sphere in Las Vegas… so the 90's really are back.<\/p>\n

    5. Tim Walz Took on Tesla and Failed… Again<\/strong><\/h2>\n

    Minnesota Governor Tim Walz scored an 8\/10 with this Tweet making fun of Elon Musk losing his status as the world's richest person:<\/p>\n

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    https:\/\/t.co\/piZWl3Cl9B<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/m4VAeh3uHv<\/a><\/p>\n

    \u2014 Tim Walz (@Tim_Walz) September 10, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n