{"id":78174,"date":"2025-08-29T14:52:14","date_gmt":"2025-08-29T18:52:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/?p=78174"},"modified":"2025-08-29T14:52:14","modified_gmt":"2025-08-29T18:52:14","slug":"10-things-you-need-to-know-nvidias-big-problem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2025\/08\/29\/10-things-you-need-to-know-nvidias-big-problem\/","title":{"rendered":"10 Things You Need to Know: Nvidia’s Big Problem"},"content":{"rendered":"

We're closing out August and headed into Labor Day weekend, so let's look ahead at the 10 things you need to know about the market right now, starting with:<\/p>\n

1. Nvidia Has an Awareness Problem<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Right now, you're yelling out loud “well everyone knows about Nvidia.”<\/p>\n

Yes. That is the freaking problem.<\/p>\n

The entire investing universe is aware of Nvidia's epic AI-driven growth story.<\/p>\n

Wall Street caught up, and estimates have skyrocketed.<\/p>\n

And the beats are getting smaller.<\/p>\n

Nvidia reported strong numbers Wednesday, but delivered its smallest revenue beat since the launch of ChatGPT ten quarters ago:<\/p>\n

\"Image\"<\/p>\n

The upside surprises keep getting smaller – not good for a stock that more than doubled off the April lows.<\/p>\n

Yes, we know this is partly because of China.<\/p>\n

But that doesn't make the situation good.<\/p>\n

2. Investors Do Not Trust the Rally<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The latest AAII Sentiment survey shows that just 34.6% of investors are bullish.<\/p>\n

\"Image\"<\/p>\n

This is the 4th straight week of bearish readings.<\/p>\n

This is very positive.<\/p>\n

Because it implies some people are still on the sidelines – even with the $SPX just hitting yet another record high at 6,508.<\/p>\n

Timing the market on sentiment readings is very tricky business, especially outside of extreme levels.<\/p>\n

But this current 34.6% reading is much healthier than a super-positive 45%+ reading.<\/p>\n

3. Traders Are Still Banking on a September Rate Cut<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Traders are pricing in an 86.9% probability of a September rate cut following Friday's in-line PCE Price Index report.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

But what could lock it in?<\/p>\n

Next Friday's nonfarm payrolls report.<\/p>\n

The last one was an all-time stinker thanks to lower revisions of prior readings.<\/p>\n

And as a result of traders' expecting a more dovish Fed…<\/p>\n

4. Small Caps Have Been Kicking Butt<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Traders have been waiting for small caps to rally since Moses wore short pants.<\/p>\n

And by golly, the small cap surge is finally here.<\/p>\n

IWM<\/strong> was up 7.1% in August vs. a 1.9% gain in SPY<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Conventional wisdom tells us that rate-sensitive stocks rally in advance of an easing Fed, so this makes sense.<\/p>\n

And speaking of rate sensitive, have you seen the homebuilders this month?<\/p>\n

They were up over 11%.<\/p>\n

5. Culture War Earnings Season Is Coming to a Theater Near You<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Two of the biggest business stories of August 2025 were American Eagle Outfitters<\/strong> (AEO) “Sydney Sweeney Has Great Jeans” ad campaign, and Cracker Barrel's<\/strong> (CBRL) comically off-kilter rebranding, which it just reversed.<\/p>\n

American Eagle stirred up memories of Calvin Klein's controversial (and massively successful) early ads with Brooke Shields.<\/p>\n

Cracker Barrel was accused of going woke and forgetting its core customer base.<\/p>\n

But guess what?<\/p>\n

American Eagle reports earnings on Wednesday September 3.<\/p>\n

And Cracker Barrel should hit around September 19.<\/p>\n

Note: both companies' quarters ended on August 3 (before these controversies), so their outlooks will be critical.<\/p>\n

So we might see if and how people voted with their wallets.<\/p>\n

6. It's a Banner Year for the Metals<\/h2>\n

Gold has been ramping hard the past few days, and looks ready to blast through resistance at GLD $317:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Gold has been a massive outperformer in 2025 with a 30%+ gain.<\/p>\n

And it looks like it wants to keep pumping higher.<\/p>\n

Interestingly, Silver<\/strong> (SLV) has done even better with a 37% pop.<\/p>\n

And the Global<\/strong> X<\/strong> Uranium<\/strong> ETF<\/strong> (URA) is crushing everything with a 51% gain.<\/p>\n

Heavy metal thunder, indeed.<\/p>\n

7. Ethereum Got Tested<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Ethereum has been a superstar this year thanks to regulatory tailwinds, institutions becoming more crypto-friendly, companies like Bitmine Immersion Technologies<\/strong> (BMRN)\u00a0 sucking up supply, and good old-fashioned momentum.<\/p>\n

But the #2 cryptocurrency just got tested.<\/p>\n

Ethereum just exceeded its 2021 highs by a hair to set a new record at $4,958.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Was that a breakout failure just as the world seemed to rally behind Ethereum as the next big long-term theme?<\/p>\n

Fundstrat's Tom Lee has been among the biggest Ethereum cheerleaders.<\/p>\n

His haters want him to be wrong about this:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

8. Next Week Won't Be as Boring As You Think<\/h2>\n

The market is closed Monday for Labor Day.<\/p>\n

But there's still plenty going on.<\/p>\n

Aside from the nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, there's:<\/p>\n

Wednesday: JOLTS Job Openings & Salesforce<\/strong> (CRM) earnings<\/p>\n

Thursday: ADP Employment, Broadcom<\/strong> (AVGO) and Lululemon (LULU) earnings.<\/p>\n

So we'll get clues on the job market, AI chip demand, and whether consumers can still afford fancy yoga pants.<\/p>\n

Here's the full calendar:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

9. Solar Stocks Are Shining<\/h2>\n

Pardon my pun.<\/p>\n

Sami Abusaad has been pounding the table on solar stocks for weeks:<\/p>\n