![\"\"](\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/t3-10-things-you-need-to-know-next-megatrend.jpg\")
<\/a><\/h2>\n1. The Ultimate Trump Trade Gets Tested<\/strong><\/h2>\nFor months, the market was dominated by what we call “The Ultimate Trump Trade,” which was a group of stocks benefiting from:<\/p>\n
\n- Higher stock, options, and crypto volumes<\/li>\n
- Higher market volatility with higher prices<\/li>\n
- President Trump generating market-moving news multiple times a week<\/li>\n
- Lower regulation<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Some of the names we included are Robinhood<\/strong> (HOOD), Interactive Brokers<\/strong> (IBKR), Schwab<\/strong> (SCHW), and Webull<\/strong> (BULL).<\/p>\nNow these stocks are being tested – which could be a bad omen for the bulls.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-01-at-11.54.31-AM.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nWe'd keep a close eye on Robinhood since it's the flagship of the crew.<\/p>\n
It had a furious bounce off the Friday morning lows:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-01-at-11.57.58-AM.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nIf it keeps extending, this market may not be done.<\/p>\n
2. Rate Cut Odds Collapsed… and Then They Spiked.<\/strong><\/h2>\nOn Thursday, traders were pricing in a mere 39% chance of a September rate cut, according to the CME's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n
This was down from 52.4% yesterday, and 75.4% a month ago.<\/p>\n
But after Friday's messy nonfarm payrolls report, which included major downward revisions for May and June, things changed fast.<\/p>\n
As of 9:30 am ET Friday, traders were pricing in a 75.5% chance of a September rate cut:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Economic-Data-Charts-7.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n3. “Low Quality” Stocks Got Destroyed<\/h2>\n
On Friday afternoon, we ran one of our favorite stock scans, looking for names with:<\/p>\n
\n- Market cap above $2.5 billion<\/li>\n
- Revenues under $100 million<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
In recent weeks, these names were up huge.<\/p>\n
This week, they got absolutely smoked, with just 2 in positive territory:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-01-at-12.44.21-PM.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nThis is a who's who of stars in speculative sectors like quantum computing (IONQ, RGTI) AI (PONY), crypto (BMNR), and drones (JOBY).<\/p>\n
4. Utilities Could Be the Next Megatrend<\/h2>\n
Utilities stocks should be on your radar.<\/p>\n
Because if rates go down because of economic weakness, utilities could have 3 separate catalysts:<\/p>\n
\n- The rate cuts themselves, because lower rates are good for utilities stocks<\/li>\n
- A flight to safety<\/li>\n
- AI driving higher electricity demand<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
As you can see, the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund<\/strong> (XLU) is crushing SPY this year:<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-01-at-12.06.34-PM.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nDon't ignore this potential megatrend.<\/p>\n
5. Meta (META) Is the Heavyweight Earnings Champion<\/strong><\/h2>\nOn Wednesday, after the close, Meta beat earnings estimates by 21.8%.<\/p>\n
This was its 10th straight earnings beat, and it's 4th straight double-digit beat.<\/p>\n
But how did the stock follow through during this epic winning streak?<\/p>\n
We looked at META's stock price performance after the previous 9 earnings beats.<\/p>\n
30 days later, the stock was higher 7 of 9 times, with an average return of +9.9%.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Economic-Data-Charts-8.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nImpressive!<\/p>\n
Speaking of earnings…<\/p>\n
6. Earnings Season Has Been Solid<\/h2>\n
On July 25, FactSet reported that 80% of companies are beating expectations during Q2 earnings season.<\/p>\n
At the start of earnings season, analysts predicted 4.9% earnings growth.<\/p>\n
But as of Tuesday, earnings were tracking towards 6.4% growth.<\/p>\n
And that was before earnings beats from Apple<\/strong> (AAPL), Amazon<\/strong> (AMZN), Microsoft<\/strong> (MSFT), Meta<\/strong> (META), and Qualcomm<\/strong> (QCOM).<\/p>\nThis is exactly what we saw last quarter – low expectations, and companies jumping over easier hurdles.<\/p>\n
Yes, the economy is showing cracks, but by and large, big companies are hanging in there just fine.<\/p>\n
7. Sentiment Was Tracking Bullish<\/h2>\n
On Wednesday, the AAII Sentiment Survey showed that 40.3% of investors are bullish, up from 36.8% last week.<\/p>\n
So we've had bullish readings for 4 of the past 5 weeks.<\/p>\n
Before this streak, there was not a bullish reading since January 30.<\/p>\n
![\"Image\"](\"https:\/\/pbs.twimg.com\/media\/GxLsNt0WoAA1Ja2?format=jpg&name=medium\")
<\/p>\n
The change is no shocker, because nothing improves the mood like higher prices.<\/p>\n
That said, the sloppy Friday action should push sentiment numbers lower.<\/p>\n
8. Figma Is a Modern Momentum Marvel<\/h2>\n
Design software maker Figma<\/strong> (FIG) came public Thursday and it was a doozy.<\/p>\nThe deal priced at $33.<\/p>\n
The stock opened for trading at $85.<\/p>\n
It closed at $115.50.<\/p>\n
And then it hit $150 after hours.<\/p>\n
It's come off the highs Friday, but it's still up on the day as of early afternooon! Even with all sorts of speculative stocks getting spanked.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Economic-Data-Charts-9.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nWild Stuff.<\/p>\n
9. Next Week Will Be Big for AI<\/strong><\/h2>\nThe AI trade went back into full swing as of late because of heavy capex plans from the likes of Alphabet<\/strong> (GOOGL), Meta Platforms<\/strong> (META), and Amazon (AMZN).<\/p>\nBut the fun isn't over, because we have 4 key AI names reporting next week:<\/p>\n
\n- Palantir<\/strong> (PLTR)<\/li>\n
- AMD<\/strong> (AMD)<\/li>\n
- AppLovin<\/strong> (APP)<\/li>\n
- Tempus<\/strong> AI<\/strong> (TEM)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
They'll give us plenty of insights on demand levels from all angles of the industry.<\/p>\n
And just an FYI – AMD has been beating Nvidia<\/strong> (NVDA) year-to-date:<\/p>\n
Some of the names we included are Robinhood<\/strong> (HOOD), Interactive Brokers<\/strong> (IBKR), Schwab<\/strong> (SCHW), and Webull<\/strong> (BULL).<\/p>\n Now these stocks are being tested – which could be a bad omen for the bulls.<\/p>\n We'd keep a close eye on Robinhood since it's the flagship of the crew.<\/p>\n It had a furious bounce off the Friday morning lows:<\/p>\n If it keeps extending, this market may not be done.<\/p>\n On Thursday, traders were pricing in a mere 39% chance of a September rate cut, according to the CME's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n This was down from 52.4% yesterday, and 75.4% a month ago.<\/p>\n But after Friday's messy nonfarm payrolls report, which included major downward revisions for May and June, things changed fast.<\/p>\n As of 9:30 am ET Friday, traders were pricing in a 75.5% chance of a September rate cut:<\/p>\n On Friday afternoon, we ran one of our favorite stock scans, looking for names with:<\/p>\n In recent weeks, these names were up huge.<\/p>\n This week, they got absolutely smoked, with just 2 in positive territory:<\/p>\n This is a who's who of stars in speculative sectors like quantum computing (IONQ, RGTI) AI (PONY), crypto (BMNR), and drones (JOBY).<\/p>\n Utilities stocks should be on your radar.<\/p>\n Because if rates go down because of economic weakness, utilities could have 3 separate catalysts:<\/p>\n As you can see, the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund<\/strong> (XLU) is crushing SPY this year:<\/p>\n Don't ignore this potential megatrend.<\/p>\n On Wednesday, after the close, Meta beat earnings estimates by 21.8%.<\/p>\n This was its 10th straight earnings beat, and it's 4th straight double-digit beat.<\/p>\n But how did the stock follow through during this epic winning streak?<\/p>\n We looked at META's stock price performance after the previous 9 earnings beats.<\/p>\n 30 days later, the stock was higher 7 of 9 times, with an average return of +9.9%.<\/p>\n Impressive!<\/p>\n Speaking of earnings…<\/p>\n On July 25, FactSet reported that 80% of companies are beating expectations during Q2 earnings season.<\/p>\n At the start of earnings season, analysts predicted 4.9% earnings growth.<\/p>\n But as of Tuesday, earnings were tracking towards 6.4% growth.<\/p>\n And that was before earnings beats from Apple<\/strong> (AAPL), Amazon<\/strong> (AMZN), Microsoft<\/strong> (MSFT), Meta<\/strong> (META), and Qualcomm<\/strong> (QCOM).<\/p>\n This is exactly what we saw last quarter – low expectations, and companies jumping over easier hurdles.<\/p>\n Yes, the economy is showing cracks, but by and large, big companies are hanging in there just fine.<\/p>\n On Wednesday, the AAII Sentiment Survey showed that 40.3% of investors are bullish, up from 36.8% last week.<\/p>\n So we've had bullish readings for 4 of the past 5 weeks.<\/p>\n Before this streak, there was not a bullish reading since January 30.<\/p>\n The change is no shocker, because nothing improves the mood like higher prices.<\/p>\n That said, the sloppy Friday action should push sentiment numbers lower.<\/p>\n Design software maker Figma<\/strong> (FIG) came public Thursday and it was a doozy.<\/p>\n The deal priced at $33.<\/p>\n The stock opened for trading at $85.<\/p>\n It closed at $115.50.<\/p>\n And then it hit $150 after hours.<\/p>\n It's come off the highs Friday, but it's still up on the day as of early afternooon! Even with all sorts of speculative stocks getting spanked.<\/p>\n Wild Stuff.<\/p>\n The AI trade went back into full swing as of late because of heavy capex plans from the likes of Alphabet<\/strong> (GOOGL), Meta Platforms<\/strong> (META), and Amazon (AMZN).<\/p>\n But the fun isn't over, because we have 4 key AI names reporting next week:<\/p>\n They'll give us plenty of insights on demand levels from all angles of the industry.<\/p>\n And just an FYI – AMD has been beating Nvidia<\/strong> (NVDA) year-to-date:<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n2. Rate Cut Odds Collapsed… and Then They Spiked.<\/strong><\/h2>\n
<\/a><\/p>\n3. “Low Quality” Stocks Got Destroyed<\/h2>\n
\n
<\/a><\/p>\n4. Utilities Could Be the Next Megatrend<\/h2>\n
\n
<\/a><\/p>\n5. Meta (META) Is the Heavyweight Earnings Champion<\/strong><\/h2>\n
<\/a><\/p>\n6. Earnings Season Has Been Solid<\/h2>\n
7. Sentiment Was Tracking Bullish<\/h2>\n
8. Figma Is a Modern Momentum Marvel<\/h2>\n
<\/a><\/p>\n9. Next Week Will Be Big for AI<\/strong><\/h2>\n
\n