And way, way more!<\/p>\n
So let's dig into the 10 things you need to know about markets right now, starting with…<\/p>\n
1. You're Headed into the Biggest Week of the Year<\/h2>\n
Next week's calendar is jam packed, highlighted by:<\/p>\n
- \n
- US Economics:<\/strong> FOMC Rate Decision, PCE Price Index, Nonfarm Payrolls<\/li>\n
- US Earnings:<\/strong> Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Qualcomm, Visa, Starbucks,\u00a0 Robinhood, ExxonMobil, and ARM Holdings<\/li>\n
- International Economics:<\/strong> Japan and Canada Rate Decisions, Germany and Eurozone CPI<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Plus, we're destined to get hit with a pile of trade news, including a potential deal between the US and the EU.<\/p>\n
So if you've been hoping more volatility… buckle up because the headlines will be flying in nonstop.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/T3-Live-Calendar-Earnings-Economics-1-1.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nSo let's talk about the Fed:<\/p>\n
2. Rate Cut Outlook: Not so Good<\/h2>\n
\n\nTraders are taking a July rate cut off the table for next week. The CME's FedWatch tool is pricing in a mere 2.6% probability of a 25 bp decrease in the Fed Funds rate.<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n<\/div>\nThere is optimism about September, however. <\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\nThe market now shows a 64.2% chance of a 25 bp cut by the September meeting. <\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\nOf course, next week's bevy of US economic data including GDP, PCE Price Index, and Nonfarm payrolls will impact expectations. <\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\nWhat side are you on? <\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\nShould the Fed cut rates now, later, or never?<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\nLet us know in the comments down below.<\/div>\n3. The Mood Slipped Bearish in the Face of Record Highs<\/h2>\n
Despite the S&P and Nasdaq slamming to all-time highs this week, investor sentiment is slipping.<\/p>\n
The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 36.8% of investors are bullish.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
This is the third straight weekly decline since the survey read 45.0% bullish on July 2.<\/p>\n
And it's the first bearish reading since June 25.<\/p>\n
This decline implies there is a lack of trust in the rally, at least among investors.<\/p>\n
Of course, we are still well off the lows from earlier this year.<\/p>\n
4. Tesla Estimates Are Still in Free Fall<\/strong><\/h2>\n
Tesla<\/strong> (TSLA) delivered its third straight earnings miss.<\/p>\n
So it's no shocker that analysts' estimates are still collapsing:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Economic-Data-Charts-4.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nIf you look inside the red circle, you can see another dip in FY earnings estimates.<\/p>\n
Analysts now expect EPS of $1.72 this year, down from $1.81 ahead of Wednesday's earnings report.<\/p>\n
And down from $3.24 a year ago.<\/p>\n
What can I say?<\/p>\n
Tesla's still a stock built on hope for the future.<\/p>\n
On the other hand…<\/p>\n
5. Amazon Just Keeps on Shocking<\/strong><\/h2>\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nAmazon reports earnings next Thursday and it's always one of the biggest names of the season.<\/p>\n
Is it pricing in a monster earnings beat?<\/p>\n
The stock is up 30% in a straight line from the April lows.<\/p>\n
Plus, as you can see on the table below – Amazon has beaten earnings estimates for 9 straight quarters, with an average beat of +36%.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Yet, the stock has sold off the day after earnings 4 times in a row.<\/p>\n
Could this be #5?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
6. Sydney Sweeney Almost Created a Meme Stock<\/strong><\/h2>\n
Clothing brand American Eagle Outfitters<\/strong> (AEO) rose as much as 28% in premarket trading Thursday on the release of an advertising campaign with actress Sydney Sweeney.<\/p>\n
And it was looking AEO could turn into a meme stock.<\/p>\n
But the stock came back down to Earth:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Economic-Data-Charts-5-1.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nBecause everyone's asking a simple but important question:<\/p>\n
Can Sydney Sweeney drive sales?<\/p>\n
Analysts are forecasting Q3 sales at $173 million.<\/p>\n
If she drives $10 to $20 million in extra sales this quarter – that would be pretty big.<\/p>\n
Keep an eye on this story.<\/p>\n
Because short interest on American Eagle stock is 12.2% – pretty significant if the numbers get a lift.<\/p>\n
We recommend asking your teenage kids – “will you start shopping at American Eagle Outfitters?”<\/em><\/p>\n
7. The AI Trade Rages On<\/strong><\/h2>\n
Alphabet's<\/strong> (GOOGL) earnings report was fantastic, especially in the face of “expert” predictions that AI will kill Google Search.<\/p>\n
But perhaps the biggest story in that report was Alphabet boosting its capital spending budget, which sent up semiconductor stocks like Nvidia<\/strong> (NVDA) and AMD<\/strong> (AMD).<\/p>\n
The best possible bull case for semi stocks for Nvidia is demand outstripping supply.<\/p>\n
Longs want to hear “we can't produce chips fast enough.”<\/em><\/p>\n
And if Google's upping its spend, the competition for AI chips and related items goes up.<\/p>\n
On the negative side, expectations for Nvidia's next earnings report are sky-high with the stock at record highs, up 102% from the April lows.<\/p>\n
And speaking of AI… it's driving another raging trade…<\/p>\n
8. Uranium Is Champion<\/strong><\/h2>\n
AI is driving increased electricity demand just as the US becomes more friendly to nuclear energy.<\/p>\n
The result?<\/p>\n
The Global X Uranium ETF<\/strong> (URA) is now up 55% in 2025, more than 5X the return of SPY:<\/p>\n
- US Earnings:<\/strong> Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Qualcomm, Visa, Starbucks,\u00a0 Robinhood, ExxonMobil, and ARM Holdings<\/li>\n