{"id":77927,"date":"2025-07-03T11:40:57","date_gmt":"2025-07-03T15:40:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/?p=77927"},"modified":"2025-07-03T11:40:57","modified_gmt":"2025-07-03T15:40:57","slug":"10-things-you-need-to-know-goodbye-rate-cuts-edition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2025\/07\/03\/10-things-you-need-to-know-goodbye-rate-cuts-edition\/","title":{"rendered":"10 Things You Need to Know &#8211; Goodbye Rate Cuts Edition!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/1.jpg\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-77930\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"418\" height=\"313\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/1.jpg 1004w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/1-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/1-150x112.jpg 150w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/1-768x575.jpg 768w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/1-80x60.jpg 80w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/1-220x165.jpg 220w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/1-134x100.jpg 134w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/1-200x150.jpg 200w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/1-318x238.jpg 318w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/1-554x415.jpg 554w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/1-650x487.jpg 650w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/1-794x595.jpg 794w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 418px) 100vw, 418px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>What a week! We just saw:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Markets end Q2 on a positive note, showing no fear of the July 9 reciprocal tariff deadline<\/li>\n<li>A better-than-expected jobs report<\/li>\n<li>The US move closer to approving President Trump's Big Beautiful Bill<\/li>\n<li>A US-Vietnam trade deal<\/li>\n<li>Canada make a major concession to Trump with its immigration bill<\/li>\n<li>A sudden increase in bullishness among investors<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>And a whole lot more. So let's go over the 10 Things You Absolutely Need to Know Right Now &#8211; GOODBYE RATE CUTS EDITION.<\/p>\n<h2>1. Rate Cut Odds Slip<\/h2>\n<p>Following Friday's strong nonfarm payrolls report, which featured a lower-than-expected wage growth number, traders took a July rate cut off the table.<\/p>\n<p>The CME's FedWatch tool implies a 6.7% chance of a July rate cut, down from 23.8% yesterday.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/pbs.twimg.com\/media\/Gu8MmSnXoAACl3D?format=jpg&name=large\" alt=\"Image\" \/><\/p>\n<p>September odds are starting to slip as well.<\/p>\n<p>The market is pricing in a 67.4% chance of a rate cut by September, down from 71.9% yesterday, and from 74.3% last week.<\/p>\n<p>So let's ask a big question:<\/p>\n<h2><strong>2. Why Is President Trump Attacking Jerome Powell?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>President Trump keeps tossing verbal bombs at Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and you might be wondering why.<\/p>\n<p>It's a simple game.<\/p>\n<p>Assume we don't get rate cuts, and the economy and financial markets crash.<\/p>\n<p>Trump assigns Powell the blame.<\/p>\n<p>If we do get rate cuts, the odds favor ongoing strength &#8212; even with a recession.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bankrate.com\/investing\/how-stocks-perform-after-interest-rate-cuts\/\">According to Hartford Funds Research, cited by Bankrate<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The Hartford team reviewed 22 occasions from 1929 to 2019 when the Fed first cut rates and how stocks, bonds and cash performed over the subsequent 12 months. The after-inflation return of stocks averaged 11 percent, but returns diverged when the cut was associated with a recession.<\/p>\n<p>When the rate cut occurred and no recession took place, stocks averaged returns of 17 percent in the following year. But even when a recession took place, stocks were still 8 percent higher.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h2>3. Traders Finally Turn Bullish&#8230; at an Inconvenient Time?<\/h2>\n<div class=\"css-175oi2r\">\n<div class=\"css-175oi2r r-1s2bzr4\">\n<div id=\"id__5whw4zl74lw\" class=\"css-146c3p1 r-bcqeeo r-1ttztb7 r-qvutc0 r-37j5jr r-1inkyih r-16dba41 r-bnwqim r-135wba7\" dir=\"auto\" lang=\"en\" data-testid=\"tweetText\"><span class=\"css-1jxf684 r-bcqeeo r-1ttztb7 r-qvutc0 r-poiln3\">The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 45.0% of investors are bullish.<\/span><\/div>\n<div dir=\"auto\" lang=\"en\" data-testid=\"tweetText\"><\/div>\n<div dir=\"auto\" lang=\"en\" data-testid=\"tweetText\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/pbs.twimg.com\/media\/Gu74qTTXcAEhd1K?format=png&name=large\" alt=\"Image\" \/><\/div>\n<div class=\"css-146c3p1 r-bcqeeo r-1ttztb7 r-qvutc0 r-37j5jr r-1inkyih r-16dba41 r-bnwqim r-135wba7\" dir=\"auto\" lang=\"en\" data-testid=\"tweetText\"><span class=\"css-1jxf684 r-bcqeeo r-1ttztb7 r-qvutc0 r-poiln3\">This is well off the 19.1% lows from earlier this year. <\/span><\/div>\n<div dir=\"auto\" lang=\"en\" data-testid=\"tweetText\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"css-146c3p1 r-bcqeeo r-1ttztb7 r-qvutc0 r-37j5jr r-1inkyih r-16dba41 r-bnwqim r-135wba7\" dir=\"auto\" lang=\"en\" data-testid=\"tweetText\"><span class=\"css-1jxf684 r-bcqeeo r-1ttztb7 r-qvutc0 r-poiln3\">And it's the first above-average bullish reading since January 30, 2025. <\/span><\/div>\n<div dir=\"auto\" lang=\"en\" data-testid=\"tweetText\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"css-146c3p1 r-bcqeeo r-1ttztb7 r-qvutc0 r-37j5jr r-1inkyih r-16dba41 r-bnwqim r-135wba7\" dir=\"auto\" lang=\"en\" data-testid=\"tweetText\"><span class=\"css-1jxf684 r-bcqeeo r-1ttztb7 r-qvutc0 r-poiln3\">Right into the July 9 Trade Deadline. <\/span><\/div>\n<div dir=\"auto\" lang=\"en\" data-testid=\"tweetText\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"css-146c3p1 r-bcqeeo r-1ttztb7 r-qvutc0 r-37j5jr r-1inkyih r-16dba41 r-bnwqim r-135wba7\" dir=\"auto\" lang=\"en\" data-testid=\"tweetText\"><span class=\"css-1jxf684 r-bcqeeo r-1ttztb7 r-qvutc0 r-poiln3\">Is that a bad thing? <\/span><\/div>\n<div dir=\"auto\" lang=\"en\" data-testid=\"tweetText\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"css-146c3p1 r-bcqeeo r-1ttztb7 r-qvutc0 r-37j5jr r-1inkyih r-16dba41 r-bnwqim r-135wba7\" dir=\"auto\" lang=\"en\" data-testid=\"tweetText\"><span class=\"css-1jxf684 r-bcqeeo r-1ttztb7 r-qvutc0 r-poiln3\">We'll see. Interestingly enough&#8230;<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-175oi2r\">\n<div id=\"id__ymw70som3pi\" class=\"css-175oi2r r-9aw3ui r-1s2bzr4\" aria-labelledby=\"id__pg6vnw2wir id__kl6zdo3yvl\">\n<div class=\"css-175oi2r r-9aw3ui\">\n<div class=\"css-175oi2r\">\n<div class=\"css-175oi2r\">\n<div class=\"css-175oi2r r-1ets6dv r-1phboty r-rs99b7 r-1867qdf r-1udh08x r-o7ynqc r-6416eg r-1ny4l3l\">\n<div class=\"css-175oi2r\">\n<div class=\"css-175oi2r r-16y2uox r-1pi2tsx r-13qz1uu\">\n<h2 class=\"css-175oi2r r-1adg3ll r-1udh08x\">4. Q2 Earnings Expectations Are Weird<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-175oi2r r-1adg3ll r-1udh08x\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Factset <\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">says that 110 S&P 500 companies issued guidance for the second quarter, with 59 of them being positive.<\/span><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>This is actually well above the 5 and 10-year averages.<\/p>\n<p>So guidance was strong in the face of big fears over trade and the economy.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, earnings expectations are low. Which is GREAT news.<\/p>\n<p>Analysts predict 5.0% Q2 earnings growth &#8211; the lowest since Q4 2023.<\/p>\n<p>This is down from 9.4% on March 31.<\/p>\n<p>And why is this great news?<\/p>\n<p>Because there is plenty of room for companies to beat.<\/p>\n<p>Which is exactly what happened in Q1.<\/p>\n<p>Earnings grew 13.6% in Q1, which blew away estimates.<\/p>\n<h2>5. The Ultimate Trump Trade Rages On<\/h2>\n<p>We've talked a lot about the huge gains in brokerage stocks that benefit from increased trading volumes.<\/p>\n<p>They are BOOMING this year:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-11.17.25-AM.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-77931\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-11.17.25-AM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"899\" height=\"633\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-11.17.25-AM.png 899w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-11.17.25-AM-300x211.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-11.17.25-AM-150x106.png 150w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-11.17.25-AM-768x541.png 768w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-11.17.25-AM-80x56.png 80w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-11.17.25-AM-220x155.png 220w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-11.17.25-AM-142x100.png 142w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-11.17.25-AM-213x150.png 213w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-11.17.25-AM-338x238.png 338w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-11.17.25-AM-589x415.png 589w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-11.17.25-AM-692x487.png 692w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-11.17.25-AM-845x595.png 845w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 899px) 100vw, 899px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Robinhood<\/strong> (HOOD): +150%<\/li>\n<li><strong>Coinbase<\/strong> (COIN) +43%<\/li>\n<li><strong>Interactive<\/strong> <strong>Brokers<\/strong> (IBKR): +31%<\/li>\n<li><strong>Webull<\/strong> (BULL) +22%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>$SPY is up just 7%.<\/p>\n<p>Why is this industry doing so well?<\/p>\n<p>Because the environment is perfect. Markets are volatile but trending higher, and President Trump ensures heavy news flow.<\/p>\n<p>All good for trading volumes &#8211; and these stocks.<\/p>\n<p>But what's not good for these stocks? Next week's calendar:<\/p>\n<h2>6. Snoozefest?<\/h2>\n<p>What a sad, pathetic little calendar we have for next week:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/T3-Live-Calendar-Earnings-Economics-11.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-77933\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/T3-Live-Calendar-Earnings-Economics-11.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"475\" height=\"571\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/T3-Live-Calendar-Earnings-Economics-11.png 960w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/T3-Live-Calendar-Earnings-Economics-11-250x300.png 250w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/T3-Live-Calendar-Earnings-Economics-11-853x1024.png 853w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/T3-Live-Calendar-Earnings-Economics-11-125x150.png 125w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/T3-Live-Calendar-Earnings-Economics-11-768x922.png 768w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/T3-Live-Calendar-Earnings-Economics-11-67x80.png 67w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/T3-Live-Calendar-Earnings-Economics-11-183x220.png 183w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/T3-Live-Calendar-Earnings-Economics-11-83x100.png 83w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/T3-Live-Calendar-Earnings-Economics-11-198x238.png 198w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/T3-Live-Calendar-Earnings-Economics-11-346x415.png 346w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/T3-Live-Calendar-Earnings-Economics-11-406x487.png 406w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/T3-Live-Calendar-Earnings-Economics-11-496x595.png 496w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 475px) 100vw, 475px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Yes, we have the FOMC Meeting Minutes and a couple of bond auctions.<\/p>\n<p>Maybe the big July 9 reciprocal tariff deadline will drive some action, but even that could be resolved soon.<\/p>\n<h2>7) Can We Talk About Bitcoin $200,000?<\/h2>\n<p>Bitcoin is getting lots of attention because it's flirting with key resistance around $110,000.<\/p>\n<p>So let's ask a crazy question.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.t3live.com\/blog\/2025\/05\/21\/jr-romero-bitcoin-200k\/\">Is Bitcoin headed to $200,000?<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>JR Romero has an idea:<\/p>\n<p><iframe title=\"FACT CHECK: Did JR Say &quot;Bitcoin is going to $200,000?&quot;\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/iQbWjZlV4Ew?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h2><strong>8. Small Caps Get a Start<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>So far this month, IWM is beating SPY:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-11.34.37-AM.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-77935\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-11.34.37-AM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"794\" height=\"502\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-11.34.37-AM.png 794w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-11.34.37-AM-300x190.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-11.34.37-AM-150x95.png 150w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-11.34.37-AM-768x486.png 768w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-11.34.37-AM-80x51.png 80w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-11.34.37-AM-220x139.png 220w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-11.34.37-AM-158x100.png 158w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-11.34.37-AM-237x150.png 237w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-11.34.37-AM-376x238.png 376w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-11.34.37-AM-656x415.png 656w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-11.34.37-AM-770x487.png 770w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 794px) 100vw, 794px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>3 days of action do not make a trend.<\/p>\n<p>But it's worth watching because SPY has more than doubled IWM's performance over the last 10 years.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-11.36.38-AM.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-77936\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-11.36.38-AM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"793\" height=\"501\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-11.36.38-AM.png 793w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-11.36.38-AM-300x190.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-11.36.38-AM-150x95.png 150w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-11.36.38-AM-768x485.png 768w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-11.36.38-AM-80x51.png 80w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-11.36.38-AM-220x139.png 220w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-11.36.38-AM-158x100.png 158w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-11.36.38-AM-237x150.png 237w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-11.36.38-AM-377x238.png 377w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-11.36.38-AM-657x415.png 657w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-03-at-11.36.38-AM-771x487.png 771w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 793px) 100vw, 793px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>That has to flip eventually.<\/p>\n<p>Right?<\/p>\n<p>Put it on the radar.<\/p>\n<h2>9) It's Time to Write Your Trading Plan<\/h2>\n<p>A trading plan can't guarantee success.<\/p>\n<p>But a lack of planning guarantees your failure.<\/p>\n<p>So let Sami Abusaad take you through the process of writing a plan that sets you up for long-term success:<\/p>\n<p><iframe title=\"How to Write a Trading Plan (serious traders only)\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Xdi8xSbSmnY?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h2><strong>10) Happy Fourth of July!<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Don't take the freedoms we have for granted.<\/p>\n<p>And watch the single best scene from Saving Private Ryan:<\/p>\n<p><iframe title=\"Saving Private Ryan\/Best scene\/Steven Spielberg\/Tom Hanks\/Matt Damon\/Tom Sizemore\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/bp2v-Ko5nAY?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What a week! We just saw: Markets end Q2 on a positive note, showing no fear of the July 9 reciprocal tariff deadline A better-than-expected jobs report The US move closer to approving President Trump&#8217;s Big Beautiful Bill A US-Vietnam trade deal Canada make a major concession to Trump with its immigration bill A sudden increase in bullishness among investors And a whole lot more. So let&#8217;s go over the 10 Things You Absolutely Need to Know Right Now &#8211; GOODBYE RATE CUTS EDITION. 1. Rate Cut Odds Slip Following Friday&#8217;s strong nonfarm payrolls report, which featured a lower-than-expected wage growth number, traders took a July rate cut off the table. The CME&#8217;s FedWatch tool implies a 6.7% chance of a July rate cut, down from 23.8% yesterday. September odds are starting to slip as well. The market is pricing in a 67.4% chance of a rate cut by September, down from 71.9% yesterday, and from 74.3% last week. So let&#8217;s ask a big question: 2. Why Is President Trump Attacking Jerome Powell? President Trump keeps tossing verbal bombs at Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and you might be wondering why. It&#8217;s a simple game. Assume we don&#8217;t get rate cuts, and the economy and financial markets crash. Trump assigns Powell the blame. If we do get rate cuts, the odds favor ongoing strength &#8212; even with a recession. According to Hartford Funds Research, cited by Bankrate The Hartford team reviewed 22 occasions from 1929 to 2019 when the Fed first cut rates and how stocks, bonds and cash performed over the subsequent 12 months. The after-inflation return of stocks averaged 11 percent, but returns diverged when the cut was associated with a recession. When the rate cut occurred and no recession took place, stocks averaged returns of 17 percent in the following year. But even when a recession took place, stocks were still 8 percent higher. 3. Traders Finally Turn Bullish&#8230; at an Inconvenient Time? The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 45.0% of investors are bullish. This is well off the 19.1% lows from earlier this year. And it&#8217;s the first above-average bullish reading since January 30, 2025. Right into the July 9 Trade Deadline. Is that a bad thing? We&#8217;ll see. Interestingly enough&#8230; 4. Q2 Earnings Expectations Are Weird Factset says that 110 S&#038;P 500 companies issued guidance for the second quarter, with 59 of them being positive. This is actually well above the 5 and 10-year averages. So guidance was strong in the face of big fears over trade and the economy. Meanwhile, earnings expectations are low. Which is GREAT news. Analysts predict 5.0% Q2 earnings growth &#8211; the lowest since Q4 2023. This is down from 9.4% on March 31. And why is this great news? Because there is plenty of room for companies to beat. Which is exactly what happened in Q1. Earnings grew 13.6% in Q1, which blew away estimates. 5. The Ultimate Trump Trade Rages On We&#8217;ve talked a lot about the huge gains in brokerage stocks that benefit from increased trading volumes. They are BOOMING this year: Robinhood (HOOD): +150% Coinbase (COIN) +43% Interactive Brokers (IBKR): +31% Webull (BULL) +22% $SPY is up just 7%. Why is this industry doing so well? Because the environment is perfect. Markets are volatile but trending higher, and President Trump ensures heavy news flow. All good for trading volumes &#8211; and these stocks. But what&#8217;s not good for these stocks? Next week&#8217;s calendar: 6. Snoozefest? What a sad, pathetic little calendar we have for next week: Yes, we have the FOMC Meeting Minutes and a couple of bond auctions. Maybe the big July 9 reciprocal tariff deadline will drive some action, but even that could be resolved soon. 7) Can We Talk About Bitcoin $200,000? Bitcoin is getting lots of attention because it&#8217;s flirting with key resistance around $110,000. So let&#8217;s ask a crazy question. Is Bitcoin headed to $200,000? JR Romero has an idea: 8. Small Caps Get a Start So far this month, IWM is beating SPY: 3 days of action do not make a trend. But it&#8217;s worth watching because SPY has more than doubled IWM&#8217;s performance over the last 10 years. That has to flip eventually. Right? Put it on the radar. 9) It&#8217;s Time to Write Your Trading Plan A trading plan can&#8217;t guarantee success. But a lack of planning guarantees your failure. So let Sami Abusaad take you through the process of writing a plan that sets you up for long-term success: 10) Happy Fourth of July! Don&#8217;t take the freedoms we have for granted. And watch the single best scene from Saving Private Ryan:<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":67239,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-77927","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77927","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=77927"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77927\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":77938,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77927\/revisions\/77938"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/67239"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=77927"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=77927"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=77927"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}