{"id":77537,"date":"2025-04-11T13:29:33","date_gmt":"2025-04-11T17:29:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/?p=77537"},"modified":"2025-04-11T15:25:25","modified_gmt":"2025-04-11T19:25:25","slug":"10-things-traders-need-to-know-right-now-trump-trade-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2025\/04\/11\/10-things-traders-need-to-know-right-now-trump-trade-war\/","title":{"rendered":"10 Things You Need to Know Right Now &#8211; Trade War Edition!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/10-things-trade-war.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-77551\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/10-things-trade-war.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"538\" height=\"405\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/10-things-trade-war.png 832w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/10-things-trade-war-300x226.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/10-things-trade-war-150x113.png 150w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/10-things-trade-war-768x578.png 768w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/10-things-trade-war-80x60.png 80w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/10-things-trade-war-220x166.png 220w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/10-things-trade-war-133x100.png 133w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/10-things-trade-war-199x150.png 199w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/10-things-trade-war-316x238.png 316w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/10-things-trade-war-552x415.png 552w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/10-things-trade-war-647x487.png 647w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/10-things-trade-war-791x595.png 791w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 538px) 100vw, 538px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>What a week!<\/p>\n<p>We just saw:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Countless twists in the trade war<\/li>\n<li>President Trump make the most impactful market-related social media post ever<\/li>\n<li>The 3rd biggest up day since World War 2<\/li>\n<li>A crazy surge in gold<\/li>\n<li>A big surprise cooling in US inflation<\/li>\n<li>A positive kickoff to Q1 earnings season<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>So let's dig in to the 10 Things You Need to Know About Markets Right Now<\/p>\n<h2><strong>1. It's Time to Join Truth Social<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On Wednesday, President Trump set a world record for most impactful social media post of all time when he announced a 90-day pause in his tariff war.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.10.43-PM.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-77538\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.10.43-PM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"488\" height=\"472\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.10.43-PM.png 634w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.10.43-PM-300x290.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.10.43-PM-150x145.png 150w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.10.43-PM-80x77.png 80w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.10.43-PM-220x213.png 220w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.10.43-PM-103x100.png 103w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.10.43-PM-155x150.png 155w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.10.43-PM-246x238.png 246w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.10.43-PM-429x415.png 429w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.10.43-PM-504x487.png 504w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.10.43-PM-615x595.png 615w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 488px) 100vw, 488px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The S&P 500 rose 9.5% on Wednesday, which <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/04\/09\/stock-market-posts-third-biggest-gain-in-post-wwii-history-on-trumps-tariff-about-face.html\">FactSet said<\/a><\/strong><\/span> is the 3rd biggest up day since World War 2.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">With the benefit of hindsight, this announcement seemed telegraphed earlier that morning:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.11.20-PM.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-77539\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.11.20-PM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"575\" height=\"257\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.11.20-PM.png 618w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.11.20-PM-300x134.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.11.20-PM-150x67.png 150w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.11.20-PM-80x36.png 80w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.11.20-PM-220x98.png 220w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.11.20-PM-224x100.png 224w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.11.20-PM-280x125.png 280w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.11.20-PM-510x228.png 510w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 575px) 100vw, 575px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Needless to say&#8230; we should have listened.<\/p>\n<p>And we should be following the President on Truth Social.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>2. Deflation Might Be the Next Buzzword<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This week, we had cool CPI and PPI reports in the US, possibly indicating that the inflation bogeyman is fading away &#8211; especially since oil prices are down 15% this month.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Core CPI rose 2.8% year-over-year in March &#8211; the lowest level in 4 years.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Here's a chart from <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investing.com\/economic-calendar\/core-cpi-736\">Investing.com <\/a><\/strong><\/span>\u00a0showing the long-term trend:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.12.52-PM.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-77540\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.12.52-PM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"602\" height=\"360\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.12.52-PM.png 602w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.12.52-PM-300x179.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.12.52-PM-150x90.png 150w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.12.52-PM-80x48.png 80w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.12.52-PM-220x132.png 220w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.12.52-PM-167x100.png 167w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.12.52-PM-251x150.png 251w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.12.52-PM-398x238.png 398w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 602px) 100vw, 602px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next Wednesday, we get CPI numbers from Great Britain and the Eurozone, which could confirm a global cooling of inflation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The question now is <em>\u201cif we had a bull market during a period of high inflation, could we see a deflation-driven bear market?\u201d<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Traders have been eager for lower inflation readings. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Maybe they should be careful what they wish for&#8230;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We also have the ECB rate decision on Thursday &#8211; we\u2019ll see just how frazzled our friends in Brussels are.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><b>3. Earnings Season Is About to Heat Up<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Friday\u2019s big earnings reports from<\/span><b> JPMorgan<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (JPM), <strong>Morgan Stanley<\/strong> (MS), <strong>BlackRock<\/strong> (BLK) and others were strong, sending <strong>XLF<\/strong> up about 1.3% as of midday Friday:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.16.48-PM.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-77541\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.16.48-PM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"528\" height=\"506\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.16.48-PM.png 528w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.16.48-PM-300x288.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.16.48-PM-150x144.png 150w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.16.48-PM-80x77.png 80w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.16.48-PM-220x211.png 220w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.16.48-PM-104x100.png 104w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.16.48-PM-157x150.png 157w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.16.48-PM-248x238.png 248w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.16.48-PM-433x415.png 433w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.16.48-PM-508x487.png 508w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 528px) 100vw, 528px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But the big news was JPM\u2019s Jamie Dimon saying S&P 500 earnings estimates will fall because of uncertainty driven by President Trump\u2019s trade wars.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The challenge is figuring out how much more expectations need to fall, if at all.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">According to FactSet, analysts forecast earnings growth of just 7.0% in Q1 &#8212; which is already down from 11.7% back on December 31.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">And guidance has been bad. Of companies issuing Q1 EPS guidance, 68% were negative, which is higher than average.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Keep these names on your radar next week because they will move markets:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Monday:<\/span><b> Goldman Sachs<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (GS)<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tuesday: <\/span><b>Johnson & Johnson<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (JNJ), <\/span><b>Bank of America<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (BAC), <\/span><b>Citigroup<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (C)<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Wednesday:<\/span><b> ASML Holding<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (ASML)<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Thursday<\/span><b>: Netflix (NFLX), Taiwan Semi <\/b>(TSM),<b> UnitedHealth<\/b> (UNH),<b> American Express <\/b>(AXP)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ASML and Taiwan Semi in particular will be interesting because of their exposure to AI.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><b>4. TLT Up Good, TLT Down Bad<\/b><a style=\"font-size: 16px;\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-13.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-77543\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-13.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"768\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-13.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-13-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-13-150x113.jpg 150w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-13-768x576.jpg 768w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-13-80x60.jpg 80w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-13-220x165.jpg 220w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-13-133x100.jpg 133w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-13-200x150.jpg 200w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-13-317x238.jpg 317w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-13-553x415.jpg 553w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-13-649x487.jpg 649w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-13-793x595.jpg 793w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The word on the street is that \u201csomething\u201d is broken in the bond market.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There is chatter that China has been selling Treasuries as retaliation to the US.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Either way, the market does not want higher rates (rates rise when bond prices fall) so all eyes are on US Treasury yields.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Or if you want to keep this super simple, look at things this way:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><strong>TLT Up = Good<\/strong><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><strong>TLT Down = Bad<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><b>5. Gold Is Still a Monster&#8230; but It\u2019s Gotten Trickier<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Precious metals have been the biggest moneymaker in 2025, with gold surpassing <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2025\/03\/06\/jr-romero-new-gold-target\/\"><b>JR Romero\u2019s $3,225 target price<\/b><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> on Thursday evening.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.21.22-PM.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-77542\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.21.22-PM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"809\" height=\"611\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.21.22-PM.png 809w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.21.22-PM-300x227.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.21.22-PM-150x113.png 150w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.21.22-PM-768x580.png 768w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.21.22-PM-80x60.png 80w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.21.22-PM-220x166.png 220w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.21.22-PM-132x100.png 132w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.21.22-PM-199x150.png 199w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.21.22-PM-315x238.png 315w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.21.22-PM-549x415.png 549w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.21.22-PM-645x487.png 645w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.21.22-PM-788x595.png 788w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 809px) 100vw, 809px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We spoke to JR for an update on gold.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">He said \u201c<\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We need to see gold over $3,250 to keep it going. Treasuries are key. If the bond market doesn\u2019t straighten out, gold will be in trouble.\u201d<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">JR predicted the move to $3,000+ way back on April 10, 2024 &#8211; so be smart and listen to him.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Want to learn how to trade with X-Ray Vision? Check out <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/vp301.isrefer.com\/go\/trcm\/t3l\/web-25-4-11\"><b>JR\u2019s Tape Reading Course<\/b><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. It\u2019s LIVE!<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><b>6. No One Cares About Bitcoin\u2019s Relative Strength\u00a0<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bitcoin\u2019s staying power this month is the most undercovered story in the market.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Crypto skeptics have considered Bitcoin just another risk asset like a tech stock or junk bond.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But it\u2019s been holding steady this month with a small gain despite a -5.1% drop in SPY.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.23.45-PM.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-77544\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.23.45-PM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"803\" height=\"614\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.23.45-PM.png 803w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.23.45-PM-300x229.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.23.45-PM-150x115.png 150w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.23.45-PM-768x587.png 768w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.23.45-PM-80x61.png 80w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.23.45-PM-220x168.png 220w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.23.45-PM-131x100.png 131w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.23.45-PM-196x150.png 196w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.23.45-PM-311x238.png 311w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.23.45-PM-543x415.png 543w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.23.45-PM-637x487.png 637w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.23.45-PM-778x595.png 778w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 803px) 100vw, 803px\" \/><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So maybe Bitcoin is turning into the \u201cdigital gold\u201d people have dreamed it could be.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><b>7. The Elevated VIX May Stay Elevated<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On Monday, the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2017\/04\/20\/what-is-the-vix\/\"><b>VIX<\/b><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> hit a high of 60.42 with the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.t3live.com\/blog\/2017\/04\/17\/what-is-vix-curve\/\"><b>term structure<\/b><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> fully inverted.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In other words&#8230; maximum stress.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The VIX rises when traders buy SPX put options for downside protection.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The more they pay up for those put options, the higher the VIX goes.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Extreme VIX readings often represent great buying opportunities for equities.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, during periods of extreme chaos (think the 2020 Covid decline or the 2008-2009 crisis) the VIX stayed north of 50 for months.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If the trade war rages on, the VIX could stay elevated for far longer than you think.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On the flip side of this&#8230;<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><b>8. Awful Consumer Confidence May Be a Good Thing<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On Friday, Michigan Consumer Sentiment came in at 50.8, the lowest level since June 24, 2022.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That date was not the market bottom.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But it was close to it.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">You can\u2019t time the lows with indicators like this &#8211; but it\u2019s just another sign that stress is at extreme levels.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That means more upside fuel for a squeeze should the US resolve trade tensions with China.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So what\u2019s squeezable?<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><b>9. Put These Names on Your Radar&#8230;<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We ran a screen for S&P 500 stocks that were up more than 30% in 2024, which are down more than 20% in 2025.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We can up with 23 names:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Deckers Outdoor Corporation<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (DECK)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><b>Zebra Technologies Corporation<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (ZBRA)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><b>Tesla Inc.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (TSLA)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><b>United Airlines Holdings Inc.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (UAL)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><b>Arista Networks Inc<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (ANET)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><b>Delta Air Lines Inc<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. (DAL)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><b>KKR & Co. Inc.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (KKR)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><b>Carnival Corporation & pl<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">c (CCL)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><b>Synchrony Financial <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">(SYF)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><b>Dell Technologies Inc.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (DELL)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><b>NetApp Inc. <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">(NTAP)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><b>PayPal Holdings Inc.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (PYPL)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><b>ServiceNow Inc.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (NOW)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><b>Blackstone Inc.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (BX)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><b>Smurfit Westrock Plc<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (SW)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><b>Apollo Global Management Inc.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (APO)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><b>Broadcom Inc.<\/b> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">(AVGO)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><b>Iron Mountain Incorporated<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (IRM)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><b>Oracle Corporation<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (ORCL)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><b>Apple Inc<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. (AAPL)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><b>Huntington Bancshares Incorporated<\/b> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">(HBAN)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><b>Citizens Financial Group Inc<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">(CFG)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><b>Vistra Corp.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (VST)<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>They may rip HARD if we get real resolution on trade as money rotates back to past winners.<\/p>\n<h2><b>10. Disney (DIS) May Become the Most Hated Stock of All Time&#8230; and Could Be a Buy<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Disney stock is down in the dumps following the failures of Snow White and Captain America: Brave New World, and China limiting film imports amid the tariff fight.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Plus it looks like the latest Marvel film, Thunderbolts, will bomb next month.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Could all the negative press mark a bottom?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Because the stock is approaching long-term support in the $78 area:<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.27.38-PM.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-77545\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.27.38-PM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"801\" height=\"613\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.27.38-PM.png 801w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.27.38-PM-300x230.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.27.38-PM-150x115.png 150w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.27.38-PM-768x588.png 768w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.27.38-PM-80x61.png 80w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.27.38-PM-220x168.png 220w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.27.38-PM-131x100.png 131w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.27.38-PM-196x150.png 196w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.27.38-PM-311x238.png 311w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.27.38-PM-542x415.png 542w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.27.38-PM-636x487.png 636w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-11-at-1.27.38-PM-777x595.png 777w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 801px) 100vw, 801px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">With its PE and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.t3live.com\/rsi-swing-trading\/\"><b>RSI<\/b><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> around multi-year lows&#8230; value buyers may step up.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Have a great weekend!<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">P.S. Want to learn how to trade with X-Ray Vision? Check out <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/vp301.isrefer.com\/go\/trcm\/t3l\/web-25-4-11\"><b>JR\u2019s Romero's Tape Reading Course<\/b><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. It\u2019s LIVE!<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What a week! We just saw: Countless twists in the trade war President Trump make the most impactful market-related social media post ever The 3rd biggest up day since World War 2 A crazy surge in gold A big surprise cooling in US inflation A positive kickoff to Q1 earnings season So let&#8217;s dig in to the 10 Things You Need to Know About Markets Right Now 1. It&#8217;s Time to Join Truth Social On Wednesday, President Trump set a world record for most impactful social media post of all time when he announced a 90-day pause in his tariff war. The S&#038;P 500 rose 9.5% on Wednesday, which FactSet said is the 3rd biggest up day since World War 2. With the benefit of hindsight, this announcement seemed telegraphed earlier that morning: Needless to say&#8230; we should have listened. And we should be following the President on Truth Social. 2. Deflation Might Be the Next Buzzword This week, we had cool CPI and PPI reports in the US, possibly indicating that the inflation bogeyman is fading away &#8211; especially since oil prices are down 15% this month. Core CPI rose 2.8% year-over-year in March &#8211; the lowest level in 4 years. Here&#8217;s a chart from Investing.com \u00a0showing the long-term trend: Next Wednesday, we get CPI numbers from Great Britain and the Eurozone, which could confirm a global cooling of inflation. The question now is \u201cif we had a bull market during a period of high inflation, could we see a deflation-driven bear market?\u201d Traders have been eager for lower inflation readings. Maybe they should be careful what they wish for&#8230; We also have the ECB rate decision on Thursday &#8211; we\u2019ll see just how frazzled our friends in Brussels are. 3. Earnings Season Is About to Heat Up Friday\u2019s big earnings reports from JPMorgan (JPM), Morgan Stanley (MS), BlackRock (BLK) and others were strong, sending XLF up about 1.3% as of midday Friday: But the big news was JPM\u2019s Jamie Dimon saying S&#038;P 500 earnings estimates will fall because of uncertainty driven by President Trump\u2019s trade wars. The challenge is figuring out how much more expectations need to fall, if at all. According to FactSet, analysts forecast earnings growth of just 7.0% in Q1 &#8212; which is already down from 11.7% back on December 31. And guidance has been bad. Of companies issuing Q1 EPS guidance, 68% were negative, which is higher than average. Keep these names on your radar next week because they will move markets:\u00a0 Monday: Goldman Sachs (GS) Tuesday: Johnson &#038; Johnson (JNJ), Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C) Wednesday: ASML Holding (ASML) Thursday: Netflix (NFLX), Taiwan Semi (TSM), UnitedHealth (UNH), American Express (AXP) ASML and Taiwan Semi in particular will be interesting because of their exposure to AI. 4. TLT Up Good, TLT Down Bad The word on the street is that \u201csomething\u201d is broken in the bond market. There is chatter that China has been selling Treasuries as retaliation to the US. Either way, the market does not want higher rates (rates rise when bond prices fall) so all eyes are on US Treasury yields. Or if you want to keep this super simple, look at things this way: TLT Up = Good TLT Down = Bad 5. Gold Is Still a Monster&#8230; but It\u2019s Gotten Trickier Precious metals have been the biggest moneymaker in 2025, with gold surpassing JR Romero\u2019s $3,225 target price on Thursday evening. We spoke to JR for an update on gold.\u00a0 He said \u201cWe need to see gold over $3,250 to keep it going. Treasuries are key. If the bond market doesn\u2019t straighten out, gold will be in trouble.\u201d JR predicted the move to $3,000+ way back on April 10, 2024 &#8211; so be smart and listen to him. Want to learn how to trade with X-Ray Vision? Check out JR\u2019s Tape Reading Course. It\u2019s LIVE! 6. No One Cares About Bitcoin\u2019s Relative Strength\u00a0 Bitcoin\u2019s staying power this month is the most undercovered story in the market. Crypto skeptics have considered Bitcoin just another risk asset like a tech stock or junk bond. But it\u2019s been holding steady this month with a small gain despite a -5.1% drop in SPY. So maybe Bitcoin is turning into the \u201cdigital gold\u201d people have dreamed it could be. 7. The Elevated VIX May Stay Elevated On Monday, the VIX hit a high of 60.42 with the term structure fully inverted. In other words&#8230; maximum stress. The VIX rises when traders buy SPX put options for downside protection. The more they pay up for those put options, the higher the VIX goes.\u00a0 Extreme VIX readings often represent great buying opportunities for equities. However, during periods of extreme chaos (think the 2020 Covid decline or the 2008-2009 crisis) the VIX stayed north of 50 for months. If the trade war rages on, the VIX could stay elevated for far longer than you think. On the flip side of this&#8230; 8. Awful Consumer Confidence May Be a Good Thing On Friday, Michigan Consumer Sentiment came in at 50.8, the lowest level since June 24, 2022. That date was not the market bottom.\u00a0 But it was close to it. You can\u2019t time the lows with indicators like this &#8211; but it\u2019s just another sign that stress is at extreme levels. That means more upside fuel for a squeeze should the US resolve trade tensions with China. So what\u2019s squeezable? 9. Put These Names on Your Radar&#8230; We ran a screen for S&#038;P 500 stocks that were up more than 30% in 2024, which are down more than 20% in 2025.\u00a0 We can up with 23 names: Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) Zebra Technologies Corporation (ZBRA) Tesla Inc. (TSLA) United Airlines Holdings Inc. (UAL) Arista Networks Inc (ANET) Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL) KKR &#038; Co. Inc. (KKR) Carnival Corporation &#038; plc (CCL) Synchrony Financial (SYF) Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) NetApp Inc. (NTAP) PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) ServiceNow Inc. (NOW) Blackstone Inc. (BX) Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":67239,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-77537","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77537","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=77537"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77537\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":77552,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77537\/revisions\/77552"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/67239"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=77537"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=77537"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=77537"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}