And MORE!<\/p>\n
So let's dig into 10 Things Traders Need to Know Right Freakin' Now!<\/p>\n
1. QQQ Enters Bear Market Territory<\/strong><\/h2>\nMag7 stocks have been a total mess in 2025, officially becoming the “Lag7.”<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-04-at-12.48.11-PM.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nAnd QQQ officially entered bear market territory<\/a><\/strong> by falling 20% off the highs on midday Friday.<\/p>\nIt definitely ain't 2023 or 2024 anymore!<\/p>\n
As of Friday at 1:04 pm ET, just one stock in QQQ had a Relative Strength Index (RSI)<\/strong><\/a><\/span> over 60 – Exelon Corporation<\/strong> (EXC).<\/p>\nThe small caps are even messier, with IWM<\/strong> over 26% from its highs.<\/p>\nNeed insights on navigating times like this?<\/p>\n
Check out The 7 Unbreakable Rules of Bear Market Trading by David Prince of Inner Circle.<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n2. CPI Could Create Pandemonium, Consumer Sentiment Could Signal Misery<\/strong><\/h2>\nInflation has moderated in recent months, as you can see on the chart of the YoY Core CPI:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-04-at-1.21.26-PM.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nTraders want more of this to give the Fed ample room to cut rates.<\/p>\n
Markets are pricing in:<\/p>\n
\n- 4 rate cuts this year<\/li>\n
- 35% probability of a 25 bps cut at the May 7 Fed meeting<\/li>\n
- 100% probability of easing at the June meeting<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Traders are worried about stagflation – stagnating economic growth and high inflation.<\/p>\n
Because tariffs could hurt growth and increase inflation at the same time.<\/p>\n
On Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he expects tariffs to increase inflation and hurt growth.<\/p>\n
Hard economic data has been decent as of late.<\/p>\n
The March NFP and ADP employment numbers were solid, as was Q4 GDP.<\/p>\n
A hot CPI number on Thursday would be a disaster.<\/p>\n
On Friday, we get the April Michigan Consumer Sentiment number.<\/p>\n
Readings have been dropping like a rock all year.<\/p>\n
A continued drop may be a good thing for traders — since major collapses in Consumer Sentiment tend to correspond with stock market bottoms.<\/p>\n
3. Earnings Season Kicks Off with the Banks<\/h2>\n
We get the first taste of Q1 earnings season with JP Morgan<\/strong> (JPM), Wells Fargo<\/strong> (WFC),\u00a0BlackRock<\/strong> (BLK), and Bank of New York Mellon<\/strong> (BK) reporting Friday.<\/p>\nExpectations are low.<\/p>\n
FactSet tells us that 107 S&P 500 <\/span>companies issued Q1 guidance, with 68 leaning negative. That's 64%, above the 5-year average of 57%. <\/span><\/p>\nAnd most of the weakness is in tech. <\/span><\/p>\nBut guidance is likely to get even worse thanks to all the tariff uncertainty. <\/span><\/p>\nBecause companies want to keep expectations as low as possible to set the stage for positive earnings surprises.<\/span><\/p>\nThe banks are key because they'll give us insights into housing and the overall consumer picture – a good companion to the Michigan Sentiment report.<\/p>\n
4. Gold Had a Monster “Sell the News”<\/strong><\/h2>\nGold hit record highs on Thursday on President Trump's tariff announcement.<\/p>\n
But then it sold off.<\/p>\n
Hard.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-04-at-12.43.23-PM-1024x711.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nTraders have been asking whether gold's surprising surge in 2025 was a sign of trouble to come.<\/p>\n
In hindsight, that looks right.<\/p>\n
If the tariff situation cools off, gold may flat-out collapse.<\/p>\n
5. NVIDIA Could be a Value Stock<\/strong><\/h2>\nIf you loved NVIDIA<\/strong> (NVDA) at 70 times earnings… do you like it as 21 times earnings?<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Screenshot-2025-04-04-at-9.57.08-AM-1024x645.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nNVIDIA was the leading megacap tech growth stock of 2023 and 2024.<\/p>\n
Could be the greatest value stock of 2025?<\/p>\n
Tough to say.<\/p>\n
Especially because traders want a big earnings report and strong guidance from this semiconductor leader.<\/p>\n
The problem is that NVIDIA won't report earnings again until May.<\/p>\n
6. Nike May Be the Tariff Bellwether<\/h2>\n
Nike<\/strong> (NKE) was devastated on Thursday and Friday because the new Tariffs will hit the company's supply chain, particularly in Vietnam.<\/p>\nOn Friday, Nike broke its pandemic low, and then rebounded hard when Vietnam signaled it would strike a tariff deal with the US.<\/p>\n
<\/a><\/p>\nAnd QQQ officially entered bear market territory<\/a><\/strong> by falling 20% off the highs on midday Friday.<\/p>\n It definitely ain't 2023 or 2024 anymore!<\/p>\n As of Friday at 1:04 pm ET, just one stock in QQQ had a Relative Strength Index (RSI)<\/strong><\/a><\/span> over 60 – Exelon Corporation<\/strong> (EXC).<\/p>\n The small caps are even messier, with IWM<\/strong> over 26% from its highs.<\/p>\n Need insights on navigating times like this?<\/p>\n Check out The 7 Unbreakable Rules of Bear Market Trading by David Prince of Inner Circle.<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Inflation has moderated in recent months, as you can see on the chart of the YoY Core CPI:<\/p>\n Traders want more of this to give the Fed ample room to cut rates.<\/p>\n Markets are pricing in:<\/p>\n Traders are worried about stagflation – stagnating economic growth and high inflation.<\/p>\n Because tariffs could hurt growth and increase inflation at the same time.<\/p>\n On Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he expects tariffs to increase inflation and hurt growth.<\/p>\n Hard economic data has been decent as of late.<\/p>\n The March NFP and ADP employment numbers were solid, as was Q4 GDP.<\/p>\n A hot CPI number on Thursday would be a disaster.<\/p>\n On Friday, we get the April Michigan Consumer Sentiment number.<\/p>\n Readings have been dropping like a rock all year.<\/p>\n A continued drop may be a good thing for traders — since major collapses in Consumer Sentiment tend to correspond with stock market bottoms.<\/p>\n We get the first taste of Q1 earnings season with JP Morgan<\/strong> (JPM), Wells Fargo<\/strong> (WFC),\u00a0BlackRock<\/strong> (BLK), and Bank of New York Mellon<\/strong> (BK) reporting Friday.<\/p>\n Expectations are low.<\/p>\n FactSet tells us that 107 S&P 500 <\/span>companies issued Q1 guidance, with 68 leaning negative. That's 64%, above the 5-year average of 57%. <\/span><\/p>\n And most of the weakness is in tech. <\/span><\/p>\n But guidance is likely to get even worse thanks to all the tariff uncertainty. <\/span><\/p>\n Because companies want to keep expectations as low as possible to set the stage for positive earnings surprises.<\/span><\/p>\n The banks are key because they'll give us insights into housing and the overall consumer picture – a good companion to the Michigan Sentiment report.<\/p>\n Gold hit record highs on Thursday on President Trump's tariff announcement.<\/p>\n But then it sold off.<\/p>\n Hard.<\/p>\n Traders have been asking whether gold's surprising surge in 2025 was a sign of trouble to come.<\/p>\n In hindsight, that looks right.<\/p>\n If the tariff situation cools off, gold may flat-out collapse.<\/p>\n If you loved NVIDIA<\/strong> (NVDA) at 70 times earnings… do you like it as 21 times earnings?<\/p>\n NVIDIA was the leading megacap tech growth stock of 2023 and 2024.<\/p>\n Could be the greatest value stock of 2025?<\/p>\n Tough to say.<\/p>\n Especially because traders want a big earnings report and strong guidance from this semiconductor leader.<\/p>\n The problem is that NVIDIA won't report earnings again until May.<\/p>\n Nike<\/strong> (NKE) was devastated on Thursday and Friday because the new Tariffs will hit the company's supply chain, particularly in Vietnam.<\/p>\n On Friday, Nike broke its pandemic low, and then rebounded hard when Vietnam signaled it would strike a tariff deal with the US.<\/p>\n2. CPI Could Create Pandemonium, Consumer Sentiment Could Signal Misery<\/strong><\/h2>\n
<\/a><\/p>\n\n
3. Earnings Season Kicks Off with the Banks<\/h2>\n
4. Gold Had a Monster “Sell the News”<\/strong><\/h2>\n
<\/a><\/p>\n5. NVIDIA Could be a Value Stock<\/strong><\/h2>\n
<\/a><\/p>\n6. Nike May Be the Tariff Bellwether<\/h2>\n