{"id":71081,"date":"2023-09-18T09:00:28","date_gmt":"2023-09-18T13:00:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/?p=71081"},"modified":"2023-09-18T09:00:28","modified_gmt":"2023-09-18T13:00:28","slug":"coffee-with-greta-fed-week-kickoff","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2023\/09\/18\/coffee-with-greta-fed-week-kickoff\/","title":{"rendered":"Coffee With Greta: Fed Week Kickoff"},"content":{"rendered":"

Register now<\/a> for this week's free trading Q&A with Derrick Oldensmith on Fed Day!<\/strong><\/p>\n

Good morning friends!<\/span><\/p>\n

Futures are flat but mostly lower as traders look ahead to this week\u2019s Fed meeting.<\/span><\/p>\n

Let\u2019s get right to it!<\/span><\/p>\n

Fed Week<\/span><\/h2>\n

Traders are looking ahead to the Fed\u2019s rate decision on Wednesday with focus on language about future policy decisions.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

CME Group\u2019s FedWatch Tool shows 99% of traders expecting no rate hike this week.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But the market is more split on whether the central bank might hike again in November and December.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The market will be analyzing the FOMC statement and Chairman Jerome Powell\u2019s press conference for a more dovish or hawkish stance on future policy.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Meantime, the bulk of important economic data this week is focused on the housing market.<\/span><\/p>\n

The NAHB releases its homebuilder sentiment index at 10:00 a.m. ET today.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Then the Census Bureau reports housing starts and building permits at 8:30 a.m. ET Tuesday.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

And finally, the National Association of Realtors reports existing home sales at 10:00 a.m. ET Thursday.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Yields Rise Ahead Of Fed<\/span><\/h2>\n

Treasury yields are starting this week higher ahead of Wednesday\u2019s Fed decision.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The 2-year yield is up nearly 3 basis points over 5.06% while the 10-year yield is up 2 basis points to 4.35%.<\/span><\/p>\n

Last week\u2019s inflation data was relatively in-line with economists\u2019 expectations and the consumer sentiment index showed a significant decline in inflation expectations.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Oil Extends Rally<\/span><\/h2>\n

Oil prices are continuing to rise, putting pressure on inflation.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

West Texas Intermediate crude futures are up 1.2% at nearly $92 bbl while Brent crude futures are up 0.9% at just under $95 bbl.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The recent rally comes amid supply concerns after Saudi Arabia and Russia extended their production cuts through the end of the year.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Both WTI and Brent have climbed for three straight weeks to the highest prices since November 2022.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Prices are on track for the largest quarterly increase since Q1 2022.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Arm Slips On Bearish Call<\/span><\/h2>\n

Arm Holdings <\/b>(ARM) shares are down 4.2% ahead of the open after Bernstein initiated coverage on the newly-listed stock this morning.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Bernstein analyst Sara Russo rated the stock \u201cunderperform\u201d and said it\u2019s too early to know if it will be an AI winner.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In a note to clients Russo wrote, \u201cWhile expectations that Arm will be a beneficiary from AI growth may be adding a premium to the share price, we believe it is too soon to declare them an AI winner. In addition, we remain more conservative on their ability to deliver increased royalty rates at the pace management is guiding.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

She put her price target at $46, down more than $14 from where the stock closed on Friday.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Register now for this week’s free trading Q&A with Derrick Oldensmith on Fed Day! Good morning friends! Futures are flat but mostly lower as traders look ahead to this week\u2019s Fed meeting. Let\u2019s get right to it! Fed Week Traders are looking ahead to the Fed\u2019s rate decision on Wednesday with focus on language about future policy decisions.\u00a0 CME Group\u2019s FedWatch Tool shows 99% of traders expecting no rate hike this week.\u00a0 But the market is more split on whether the central bank might hike again in November and December.\u00a0 The market will be analyzing the FOMC statement and Chairman Jerome Powell\u2019s press conference for a more dovish or hawkish stance on future policy.\u00a0 Meantime, the bulk of important economic data this week is focused on the housing market. The NAHB releases its homebuilder sentiment index at 10:00 a.m. ET today.\u00a0 Then the Census Bureau reports housing starts and building permits at 8:30 a.m. ET Tuesday.\u00a0 And finally, the National Association of Realtors reports existing home sales at 10:00 a.m. ET Thursday.\u00a0 Yields Rise Ahead Of Fed Treasury yields are starting this week higher ahead of Wednesday\u2019s Fed decision.\u00a0 The 2-year yield is up nearly 3 basis points over 5.06% while the 10-year yield is up 2 basis points to 4.35%. Last week\u2019s inflation data was relatively in-line with economists\u2019 expectations and the consumer sentiment index showed a significant decline in inflation expectations.\u00a0 Oil Extends Rally Oil prices are continuing to rise, putting pressure on inflation.\u00a0 West Texas Intermediate crude futures are up 1.2% at nearly $92 bbl while Brent crude futures are up 0.9% at just under $95 bbl.\u00a0 The recent rally comes amid supply concerns after Saudi Arabia and Russia extended their production cuts through the end of the year.\u00a0 Both WTI and Brent have climbed for three straight weeks to the highest prices since November 2022.\u00a0 Prices are on track for the largest quarterly increase since Q1 2022.\u00a0 Arm Slips On Bearish Call Arm Holdings (ARM) shares are down 4.2% ahead of the open after Bernstein initiated coverage on the newly-listed stock this morning.\u00a0 Bernstein analyst Sara Russo rated the stock \u201cunderperform\u201d and said it\u2019s too early to know if it will be an AI winner.\u00a0 In a note to clients Russo wrote, \u201cWhile expectations that Arm will be a beneficiary from AI growth may be adding a premium to the share price, we believe it is too soon to declare them an AI winner. In addition, we remain more conservative on their ability to deliver increased royalty rates at the pace management is guiding.\u201d She put her price target at $46, down more than $14 from where the stock closed on Friday.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":41,"featured_media":71082,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[739],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-71081","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-coffee-with-greta"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71081","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/41"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=71081"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71081\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":71083,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71081\/revisions\/71083"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/71082"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=71081"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=71081"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=71081"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}