{"id":6953,"date":"2016-11-18T11:51:01","date_gmt":"2016-11-18T16:51:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thet3trader.com\/?p=6953"},"modified":"2016-11-18T11:51:01","modified_gmt":"2016-11-18T16:51:01","slug":"trump-made-traders-like-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2016\/11\/18\/trump-made-traders-like-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump Made Traders Like the Market Again"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Permabulls always say everyone's bearish.<\/p>\n<p>And permabears always say everyone's bullish.<\/p>\n<p>Neither side provides evidence for their views.<\/p>\n<p>So I like regularly run through a wide variety of sentiment measures to get an accurate reflection of the market's mood.<\/p>\n<p>According to 5 sentiment measures I track, <strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.thet3trader.com\/2016\/11\/03\/bears-trump-bulls-ahead-presidential-steel-cage-match\/\">traders hated the market ahead of the November 8 US Presidential election<\/a><\/span><\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>As you'll see, that's clearly changed.<\/p>\n<p><u><strong>Let's Dive In:<\/strong><\/u><\/p>\n<p><strong>1) AAII Sentiment &#8211; Bullish<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 46.7% of individual investors are bullish, which is well above the long-term average of 38.5%.<\/p>\n<p>This is the highest level seen since February 2015.<\/p>\n<p><strong>2) CNN Fear & Greed Index &#8211; Bullish<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The Fear & Greed Index is at 62.<\/p>\n<p>F&G operates on a 1-100 scale, and 50 is neutral.<\/p>\n<p>This 62 reading indicates moderate bullishness.<\/p>\n<p><strong>3) VIX Spread &#8211; Bullish<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The 3-month VIX spread is at +4.69, which indicates traders are pricing in very low near-term volatility.<\/p>\n<p>This means traders are bullish.<\/p>\n<p><strong>4) CBOE Equity Put-Call &#8211; Neutral<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio is at 0.65, with a 3-day moving average of 0.62. This indicates slightly higher-than-average bullishness, but nothing extreme, so I'll leave it in the neutral category.<\/p>\n<p><strong>5) ISE Sentiment &#8211; Bearish<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The ISE Sentiment Index is at just 79 (79 calls for every 100 puts) this morning &#8212; which is a bearish reading. \u00a0And the 10-day moving average is 82.9. That also indicates bearish sentiment.<\/p>\n<p>*******<\/p>\n<p>Pre-election, 5 of 5 sentiment indicators were reading bearish.<\/p>\n<p>Now we have 3 bullish indicators, 1 neutral, and 1 bearish.<\/p>\n<p>So Trump not only changed the minds of a lot of voters, he's changed traders too.<\/p>\n<p>And if the <strong>S&P 500<\/strong> makes new all-time highs again, we could easily see the bulls go 5 for 5 in our next sentiment check.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Permabulls always say everyone&#8217;s bearish. And permabears always say everyone&#8217;s bullish. Neither side provides evidence for their views. So I like regularly run through a wide variety of sentiment measures to get an accurate reflection of the market&#8217;s mood. According to 5 sentiment measures I track, traders hated the market ahead of the November 8 US Presidential election. As you&#8217;ll see, that&#8217;s clearly changed. Let&#8217;s Dive In: 1) AAII Sentiment &#8211; Bullish The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 46.7% of individual investors are bullish, which is well above the long-term average of 38.5%. This is the highest level seen since February 2015. 2) CNN Fear &#038; Greed Index &#8211; Bullish The Fear &#038; Greed Index is at 62. F&#038;G operates on a 1-100 scale, and 50 is neutral. This 62 reading indicates moderate bullishness. 3) VIX Spread &#8211; Bullish The 3-month VIX spread is at +4.69, which indicates traders are pricing in very low near-term volatility. This means traders are bullish. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call &#8211; Neutral The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio is at 0.65, with a 3-day moving average of 0.62. This indicates slightly higher-than-average bullishness, but nothing extreme, so I&#8217;ll leave it in the neutral category. 5) ISE Sentiment &#8211; Bearish The ISE Sentiment Index is at just 79 (79 calls for every 100 puts) this morning &#8212; which is a bearish reading. \u00a0And the 10-day moving average is 82.9. That also indicates bearish sentiment. ******* Pre-election, 5 of 5 sentiment indicators were reading bearish. Now we have 3 bullish indicators, 1 neutral, and 1 bearish. So Trump not only changed the minds of a lot of voters, he&#8217;s changed traders too. And if the S&#038;P 500 makes new all-time highs again, we could easily see the bulls go 5 for 5 in our next sentiment check.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":6883,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,1],"tags":[302,318,417,47,8,270],"class_list":["post-6953","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles","category-uncategorized","tag-aaii-sentiment","tag-election","tag-fear-greed","tag-sentiment","tag-stocks","tag-trump"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6953","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6953"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6953\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6883"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6953"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6953"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6953"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}