Use the Table of Contents to jump around:<\/p>\n
This Week's Trading Calendar<\/strong><\/h2>\nIf you want to view or download this week's calendar, check click the image below:<\/p>\n
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<\/span><\/p>\nClick to enlarge<\/em><\/p>\nWeek Review: Nvidia Dominates!<\/strong><\/h2>\nYou guessed it! This week was all about Nvidia's<\/strong> (NVDA) shocking earnings beat and guidance, which sent tech and especially semiconductors screaming higher.<\/p>\nThe QQQ's<\/strong> rose 3.4% for the week:<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/Screen-Shot-2023-05-26-at-2.23.32-PM.png\" "\\"Screen")
<\/span><\/p>\n(data as of 2:23 p.m. Friday)<\/em><\/p>\nYear-to-date, the QQQ's<\/strong> are up a ridiculous 30.7% thanks to the brutal strength in large-cap tech stocks.<\/p>\n17 stocks in the Nasdaq 100<\/strong> (the index upon which QQQ is based on) are up more than 40% year-to-date.<\/p>\nAnd year-to-date Nvidia is the #1 stock in the S&P 500<\/strong>, Nasdaq 100<\/strong>, and the SMH<\/strong> ETF. (more on this below<\/p>\nIn economic news, the big story was Friday's Core PCE Index, which is the Fed's preferred inflation indicator. <\/p>\n
The number came in hot, which had some folks worrying about early Friday morning. <\/p>\n
The worries didn't last with stocks powering higher into the close.<\/p>\n
Now let's look forward to next week.<\/p>\n
Jobs Data Is on the Way<\/strong><\/h2>\nWe have some important US economic data reports on tap including:<\/p>\n
\n- Tuesday<\/strong>: S&P\/CS Home Prices, CB Consumer Confidence<\/li>\n
- Wednesday<\/strong>: Chicago PMI, FOMC\u2019s Harker Speaks, Beige Book, API Crude Stocks<\/li>\n
- Thursday<\/strong>: ADP Employment, Jobless Claims, Nonfarm Productivity, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC\u2019s Harker Speaks<\/li>\n
- Friday<\/strong>: Nonfarm payrolls, Baker Hughes Rig Count<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
The biggie this week is the nonfarm payrolls report. Despite lots of headlines about layoffs, the labor market has remained strong in recent months.<\/p>\n
As of Friday afternoon, traders are pricing in a 66.5% probability of a 25bps June rate hike, up from just 17.4% one week ago. <\/p>\n
And overseas, we get:<\/span><\/p>\n\n- Monday<\/strong>: BRL Focus Market Readout, NZD Building Consents, JPY Job\/Applications ratio, AUD Building Approvals<\/li>\n
- Tuesday<\/strong>: <\/strong>CHF GDP, ES CPI, JPY Industrial Prod. & Retail Sales, AUD CPI, CNY PMI<\/li>\n
- Wednesday<\/strong>: CHF Retail Sales, FRA CPI & GDP, DE Unemployment & CPI, BRL Unemployment, CAD GPI, AUD Retail Sales, CNY Caixin PMI<\/li>\n
- Thursday<\/strong>: DE Retail Sales, ES\/ITA\/DE\/FRA PMI, EU CPI, EU Unemployment, KRW CPI<\/li>\n
- Friday<\/strong>: ES Unemployment, BRL Inflation<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
(don't forget the market is closed on Monday May 29 for Memorial Day)<\/em><\/p>\nEarnings: Life After Nvidia?<\/strong><\/h2>\nNvidia<\/strong> (NVDA) was the start of earnings season, but pay attention because we've got some big ones this week, like:<\/p>\n\n- Tuesday<\/strong>: <\/span><\/span><\/strong>HP Inc.<\/strong> (HPQ) U-Haul <\/strong>(UHAL), Ambarella<\/strong> (AMBA)<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n
- Wednesday<\/strong>: Salesforce.com<\/strong> (CRM), Crowdstrike<\/strong> (CRWD), Chewy<\/strong> (CHWY), Kroger<\/strong> (KR), Advance<\/strong> Auto Parts<\/strong> (AAP), C3.ai<\/strong> (AI)<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n
- Thursday<\/strong>: Dollar General <\/strong>(DG), Macy's<\/strong> (M), Broadcom<\/strong> (AVGO), Lululemon<\/strong> (LULU), MongoDB<\/strong> (MDB), Zscaler<\/strong> (ZS)<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
This looks like a random grab-bag, but we could see some fireworks.<\/p>\n
Cloud security play Zscaler<\/strong> (ZS) is the second-best performing Nasdaq 100 stock in May — performing even better than Nvidia.<\/p>\nBroadcom<\/strong> (BRCM) will be watch just because semiconductor stocks have been on fire — and not just Nvidia. Marvel<\/strong> (MRVL) was up nearly 30% on Friday after earnings, and 7 of the 25 stocks in the SMH ETF are up more than 20% In May.<\/p>\nSalesforce.com<\/strong> (CRM) and MongoDB<\/strong> (MDB) will give us insights on enterprise tech trends, while the retailers like Kroger<\/strong> (KR) and Macy's<\/strong> (M) should give us more consumer insights.<\/p>\nBut the star of the week might be C3.ai<\/strong> (AI) on Wednesday, which has been rallying hard on the AI craze. Can they pull an Nvidia? We're about to find out.<\/p>\nAI: The Earnings Season Craze<\/h2>\n
According to Factset<\/a>, 110 companies in the S&P 500 used the term “AI” during their Q1 earnings calls.<\/p>\nThat's up from 78 last quarter. <\/p>\n
And as far as earnings season goes, things have been better than expected (though not great). <\/p>\n
97% of S&P 500 companies have reported, and:<\/p>\n
\n- 78% of companies beat EPS estimates<\/li>\n
- 76% of companies have beaten revenue estimates.<\/li>\n
- Earnings have declined by -2.1% vs. expectations for a -6.7% decline<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Traders Are in a Rotten Mood Despite the Market's Resilience<\/h2>\n
Investors and traders remain bearish despite the market's strength this year.<\/p>\n
<\/span><\/p>\nClick to enlarge<\/em><\/p>\n You guessed it! This week was all about Nvidia's<\/strong> (NVDA) shocking earnings beat and guidance, which sent tech and especially semiconductors screaming higher.<\/p>\n The QQQ's<\/strong> rose 3.4% for the week:<\/p>\n (data as of 2:23 p.m. Friday)<\/em><\/p>\n Year-to-date, the QQQ's<\/strong> are up a ridiculous 30.7% thanks to the brutal strength in large-cap tech stocks.<\/p>\n 17 stocks in the Nasdaq 100<\/strong> (the index upon which QQQ is based on) are up more than 40% year-to-date.<\/p>\n And year-to-date Nvidia is the #1 stock in the S&P 500<\/strong>, Nasdaq 100<\/strong>, and the SMH<\/strong> ETF. (more on this below<\/p>\n In economic news, the big story was Friday's Core PCE Index, which is the Fed's preferred inflation indicator. <\/p>\n The number came in hot, which had some folks worrying about early Friday morning. <\/p>\n The worries didn't last with stocks powering higher into the close.<\/p>\n Now let's look forward to next week.<\/p>\n We have some important US economic data reports on tap including:<\/p>\n The biggie this week is the nonfarm payrolls report. Despite lots of headlines about layoffs, the labor market has remained strong in recent months.<\/p>\n As of Friday afternoon, traders are pricing in a 66.5% probability of a 25bps June rate hike, up from just 17.4% one week ago. <\/p>\n And overseas, we get:<\/span><\/p>\n (don't forget the market is closed on Monday May 29 for Memorial Day)<\/em><\/p>\n Nvidia<\/strong> (NVDA) was the start of earnings season, but pay attention because we've got some big ones this week, like:<\/p>\n This looks like a random grab-bag, but we could see some fireworks.<\/p>\n Cloud security play Zscaler<\/strong> (ZS) is the second-best performing Nasdaq 100 stock in May — performing even better than Nvidia.<\/p>\n Broadcom<\/strong> (BRCM) will be watch just because semiconductor stocks have been on fire — and not just Nvidia. Marvel<\/strong> (MRVL) was up nearly 30% on Friday after earnings, and 7 of the 25 stocks in the SMH ETF are up more than 20% In May.<\/p>\n Salesforce.com<\/strong> (CRM) and MongoDB<\/strong> (MDB) will give us insights on enterprise tech trends, while the retailers like Kroger<\/strong> (KR) and Macy's<\/strong> (M) should give us more consumer insights.<\/p>\n But the star of the week might be C3.ai<\/strong> (AI) on Wednesday, which has been rallying hard on the AI craze. Can they pull an Nvidia? We're about to find out.<\/p>\n According to Factset<\/a>, 110 companies in the S&P 500 used the term “AI” during their Q1 earnings calls.<\/p>\n That's up from 78 last quarter. <\/p>\n And as far as earnings season goes, things have been better than expected (though not great). <\/p>\n 97% of S&P 500 companies have reported, and:<\/p>\n Investors and traders remain bearish despite the market's strength this year.<\/p>\nWeek Review: Nvidia Dominates!<\/strong><\/h2>\n
<\/span><\/p>\nJobs Data Is on the Way<\/strong><\/h2>\n
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Earnings: Life After Nvidia?<\/strong><\/h2>\n
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AI: The Earnings Season Craze<\/h2>\n
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Traders Are in a Rotten Mood Despite the Market's Resilience<\/h2>\n
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