{"id":66125,"date":"2023-02-01T08:54:03","date_gmt":"2023-02-01T13:54:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/?p=66125"},"modified":"2023-02-01T08:54:03","modified_gmt":"2023-02-01T13:54:03","slug":"coffee-with-greta-traders-wait-for-the-fed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2023\/02\/01\/coffee-with-greta-traders-wait-for-the-fed\/","title":{"rendered":"Coffee With Greta: Traders Wait For The Fed"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>DJIA Futures: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-136 (-0.4%)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>SPX Futures: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-9 (-0.2%)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>NASDAQ Futures: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-7 (-0.1%)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Good morning friends!<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Futures are lower as traders wait for the Fed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let\u2019s get right to it!<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Private Job Growth Slows Sharply<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Private sector job growth slowed more than expected at the beginning of 2023.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Payroll firm ADP reported U.S. private employers added 106,000 jobs in January.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That was lower than economists\u2019 expectations for 190,000 and down from 253,000 in December.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The hospitality industry continued to see the largest gains, adding 95,000 workers.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Financial activities sector added 30,000, manufacturing added 23,000, and education and health services added 12,000.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But the trade, transportation, and utilities sector lost 41,000 jobs, construction lost 24,000, and natural resources and mining fell by 3,000.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Pay rose 7.3% year over year, relatively unchanged from December.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But ADP\u2019s chief economist said severe weather impacted the numbers and job growth may not have been as weak as this report indicates.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Fed has been looking for the labor market to weaken as it hikes interest rates to slow inflation.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Today\u2019s data comes ahead of the official January jobs report on Friday which is expected to show the U.S. economy added 187,000 jobs and the unemployment rate ticked higher to 3.6%.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">AMD Tops Q4 Estimates<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><b>Advanced Micro Devices <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">(AMD) shares are\u00a0 up 3.2% ahead of the open after beating Q4 expectations on the top and bottom line.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Here\u2019s how the chipmaker\u2019s results compared to analysts\u2019 estimates:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Adjusted EPS: $0.69 vs $0.67 expected<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Revenue: $5.6 billion vs $5.5 billion expected<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The company continued to see slowing sales of its PC chips and graphics processors.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But data center sales jumped 42% year over year while its embedded segment saw sales skyrocket 1,868% due to its purchase of chip manufacturer Xilinx.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">AMD forecast $5.3 billion in Q1 sales, which would be a 10% decline year over year and missed analysts\u2019 estimate of $5.47 billion.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Snap Tumbles On Revenue Miss<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><b>Snap <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">(SNAP) shares are falling 13% in premarket trade after its Q4 sales came up short.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Here\u2019s how the social media giant\u2019s results compared to analysts\u2019 expectations:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Adjusted EPS: $0.14 vs $0.11 expected<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Revenue: $1.30 billion vs $1.31 billion expected<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Global daily active users: 375 million vs 375.3 million expected<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Average revenue per user: $3.47 vs $3.49 expected<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In a letter to investors, Snap called 2022 a \u201cchallenging year\u201d marked by \u201cmacroeconomic headwinds, platform policy changes, and increased competition.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sales rose 12% for the full year to $4.6 billion but the company declined to provide guidance for Q1.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Snap said, \u201cOn the monetization side, we anticipate that the operating environment will remain challenging, as we expect the headwinds we have faced over the past year to persist throughout Q1.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Peloton Rises On Strong Fiscal Q2 Revenue, Narrowing Loss<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><b>Peloton <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">(PTON) shares are up 6.1% ahead of the open after reporting better-than-expected fiscal Q2 revenue.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Here\u2019s how the fitness equipment maker\u2019s results compared to analysts\u2019 expectations:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Loss per share: $0.98 vs $0.64 expected<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Revenue: $792.7 million vs $710 million expected<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although that loss was steeper than estimates, it was down from a loss of $1.39 per share a year earlier.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It was the eighth quarterly loss in a row for the company.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Peloton\u2019s CEO called the results a possible \u201cturning point\u201d for the business as he focuses on an aggressive turnaround strategy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The company\u2019s subscription revenue was higher than sales of its equipment for the third quarter in a row.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Peloton\u2019s connected fitness product sales dropped 52% year over year while subscription revenue jumped 22%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The company forecast sales will fall in the current quarter to a range of $690 million to $715 million.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That was in line with analysts\u2019 estimates for $692.1 million.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mortgage Demand Pulls Back<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mortgage demand fell last week despite rates continuing to fall.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Mortgage Bankers Association reported total application volume fell 9% weekly.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Purchase applications fell 10% weekly and were 41% lower year over year.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Refinance applications dropped 7% weekly and 80% annually.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The drop came despite the average 30-year fixed contract rate falling to 6.19% from 6.2%.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MBA\u2019s chief economist said buyers are still struggling with tight supply but activity is expected to increase soon.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">He said, \u201cPurchase activity is expected to pick up as the spring homebuying season gets underway, bolstered by lower rates and moderating home-price growth.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Coming Up: JOLTS and Fed Decision<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Labor Department releases its December job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) at 10:00 a.m. ET.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That survey is expected to show the number of vacant jobs fell to 10.3 million at the end of 2022 from 10.5 million in November.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Fed then releases its first rate decision of the year at 2:00 p.m. ET followed by Chairman Jerome Powell\u2019s press conference at 2:30.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">CME Group\u2019s <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">FedWatch<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Tool shows over 99% of traders expect the bank to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Key Earnings After The Close<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Here\u2019s a look at the companies set to report earnings after the close today:<\/span><b><\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>Meta Platforms <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">(META)<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In Case You Missed It<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Consumer confidence fell unexpectedly at the beginning of the year as Americans grew wearier of an impending recession. The Conference Board\u2019s consumer confidence index fell to 107.1 in January from a revised 109 in December. That missed economists\u2019 expectations for an increase to 109.5. The drop was mainly due to a decline in the expectations index which fell to 77.8 from 83.4. Any reading below 80 typically signals a recession within the next year.<\/span><\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>PayPal <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">(PYPL) <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/newsroom.paypal-corp.com\/2023-01-31-Update-on-Our-Transformation\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">announced<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> plans to lay off 2,000 employees on Tuesday. Those cuts represent about 7% of the company\u2019s workforce. PayPal\u2019s president and CEO said the company is working to address the \u201cchallenging macroeconomic environment.\u201d<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>DJIA Futures: -136 (-0.4%) SPX Futures: -9 (-0.2%) NASDAQ Futures: -7 (-0.1%) Good morning friends! Futures are lower as traders wait for the Fed. Let\u2019s get right to it! Private Job Growth Slows Sharply Private sector job growth slowed more than expected at the beginning of 2023.\u00a0 Payroll firm ADP reported U.S. private employers added 106,000 jobs in January.\u00a0 That was lower than economists\u2019 expectations for 190,000 and down from 253,000 in December. The hospitality industry continued to see the largest gains, adding 95,000 workers.\u00a0 Financial activities sector added 30,000, manufacturing added 23,000, and education and health services added 12,000.\u00a0 But the trade, transportation, and utilities sector lost 41,000 jobs, construction lost 24,000, and natural resources and mining fell by 3,000.\u00a0 Pay rose 7.3% year over year, relatively unchanged from December.\u00a0 But ADP\u2019s chief economist said severe weather impacted the numbers and job growth may not have been as weak as this report indicates.\u00a0 The Fed has been looking for the labor market to weaken as it hikes interest rates to slow inflation.\u00a0 Today\u2019s data comes ahead of the official January jobs report on Friday which is expected to show the U.S. economy added 187,000 jobs and the unemployment rate ticked higher to 3.6%. AMD Tops Q4 Estimates Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares are\u00a0 up 3.2% ahead of the open after beating Q4 expectations on the top and bottom line.\u00a0 Here\u2019s how the chipmaker\u2019s results compared to analysts\u2019 estimates:\u00a0 Adjusted EPS: $0.69 vs $0.67 expected Revenue: $5.6 billion vs $5.5 billion expected The company continued to see slowing sales of its PC chips and graphics processors. But data center sales jumped 42% year over year while its embedded segment saw sales skyrocket 1,868% due to its purchase of chip manufacturer Xilinx. AMD forecast $5.3 billion in Q1 sales, which would be a 10% decline year over year and missed analysts\u2019 estimate of $5.47 billion.\u00a0 Snap Tumbles On Revenue Miss Snap (SNAP) shares are falling 13% in premarket trade after its Q4 sales came up short.\u00a0 Here\u2019s how the social media giant\u2019s results compared to analysts\u2019 expectations:\u00a0 Adjusted EPS: $0.14 vs $0.11 expected Revenue: $1.30 billion vs $1.31 billion expected Global daily active users: 375 million vs 375.3 million expected Average revenue per user: $3.47 vs $3.49 expected In a letter to investors, Snap called 2022 a \u201cchallenging year\u201d marked by \u201cmacroeconomic headwinds, platform policy changes, and increased competition.\u201d Sales rose 12% for the full year to $4.6 billion but the company declined to provide guidance for Q1.\u00a0 Snap said, \u201cOn the monetization side, we anticipate that the operating environment will remain challenging, as we expect the headwinds we have faced over the past year to persist throughout Q1.\u201d Peloton Rises On Strong Fiscal Q2 Revenue, Narrowing Loss Peloton (PTON) shares are up 6.1% ahead of the open after reporting better-than-expected fiscal Q2 revenue.\u00a0 Here\u2019s how the fitness equipment maker\u2019s results compared to analysts\u2019 expectations: Loss per share: $0.98 vs $0.64 expected Revenue: $792.7 million vs $710 million expected Although that loss was steeper than estimates, it was down from a loss of $1.39 per share a year earlier.\u00a0 It was the eighth quarterly loss in a row for the company. Peloton\u2019s CEO called the results a possible \u201cturning point\u201d for the business as he focuses on an aggressive turnaround strategy. The company\u2019s subscription revenue was higher than sales of its equipment for the third quarter in a row.\u00a0 Peloton\u2019s connected fitness product sales dropped 52% year over year while subscription revenue jumped 22%. The company forecast sales will fall in the current quarter to a range of $690 million to $715 million. That was in line with analysts\u2019 estimates for $692.1 million. Mortgage Demand Pulls Back Mortgage demand fell last week despite rates continuing to fall.\u00a0 The Mortgage Bankers Association reported total application volume fell 9% weekly.\u00a0 Purchase applications fell 10% weekly and were 41% lower year over year.\u00a0 Refinance applications dropped 7% weekly and 80% annually.\u00a0 The drop came despite the average 30-year fixed contract rate falling to 6.19% from 6.2%.\u00a0 MBA\u2019s chief economist said buyers are still struggling with tight supply but activity is expected to increase soon.\u00a0 He said, \u201cPurchase activity is expected to pick up as the spring homebuying season gets underway, bolstered by lower rates and moderating home-price growth.\u201d Coming Up: JOLTS and Fed Decision The Labor Department releases its December job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) at 10:00 a.m. ET.\u00a0 That survey is expected to show the number of vacant jobs fell to 10.3 million at the end of 2022 from 10.5 million in November.\u00a0 The Fed then releases its first rate decision of the year at 2:00 p.m. ET followed by Chairman Jerome Powell\u2019s press conference at 2:30.\u00a0 CME Group\u2019s FedWatch Tool shows over 99% of traders expect the bank to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points.\u00a0 Key Earnings After The Close Here\u2019s a look at the companies set to report earnings after the close today: Meta Platforms (META) In Case You Missed It Consumer confidence fell unexpectedly at the beginning of the year as Americans grew wearier of an impending recession. The Conference Board\u2019s consumer confidence index fell to 107.1 in January from a revised 109 in December. That missed economists\u2019 expectations for an increase to 109.5. The drop was mainly due to a decline in the expectations index which fell to 77.8 from 83.4. Any reading below 80 typically signals a recession within the next year. PayPal (PYPL) announced plans to lay off 2,000 employees on Tuesday. Those cuts represent about 7% of the company\u2019s workforce. PayPal\u2019s president and CEO said the company is working to address the \u201cchallenging macroeconomic environment.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":41,"featured_media":66129,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[739],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-66125","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-coffee-with-greta"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66125","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/41"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=66125"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66125\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":66130,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66125\/revisions\/66130"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/66129"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=66125"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=66125"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=66125"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}