{"id":65267,"date":"2022-11-30T09:00:09","date_gmt":"2022-11-30T14:00:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/?p=65267"},"modified":"2022-11-30T09:13:53","modified_gmt":"2022-11-30T14:13:53","slug":"coffee-with-greta-economic-data-sends-mixed-signals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2022\/11\/30\/coffee-with-greta-economic-data-sends-mixed-signals\/","title":{"rendered":"Coffee With Greta: Economic Data Sends Mixed Signals"},"content":{"rendered":"

DJIA Futures: <\/b>-6 (-0.02%)<\/span><\/p>\n

SPX Futures: <\/b>+1 (+0.03%)<\/span><\/p>\n

NASDAQ Futures: <\/b>+11 (+0.1%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Good morning friends!<\/span><\/p>\n

Futures are flat as traders digest mixed economic data ahead of the Fed Chair\u2019s speech today.<\/span><\/p>\n

Let\u2019s get right to it!<\/span><\/p>\n

Private Sector Hiring Cools<\/span><\/h2>\n

Private sector job growth came in lighter-than-expected in November.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Payroll firm ADP reported private employers added 127,000 workers.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

That was lower than economists\u2019 expectations for 190,000 and down sharply from 239,000 in October.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The leisure and hospitality sector saw the largest gain, adding 224,000 workers.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But that increase was offset by large losses in other sectors.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Manufacturing lost 100,000 workers in November, professional and business services lost 77,000, financial activities lost 34,000 and information services lost 25,000.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pay increased 7.6% year over year, down from 7.7% in October.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This is the first piece of key jobs data this week.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The Labor Department releases the October job openings and labor turnover survey at 10:00 a.m. ET today.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Then the official November jobs report will be out Friday morning.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Economists expect that to show a gain of 200,000 jobs with the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7%.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Q3 GDP Growth Revised Higher<\/span><\/h2>\n

The U.S. economy expanded more than initially estimated in the third quarter.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The Bureau of Economic Analysis\u2019 first revision of Q3 GDP came in at 2.9% vs 2.6% initially.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

That revision reflects increases in exports, consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and federal government spending.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But residential fixed investment and private inventory investment were both lower than initially estimated.<\/span><\/p>\n

DoorDash Announces Layoffs<\/span><\/h2>\n

DoorDash <\/b>(DASH) shares are up 2.9% ahead of the open after the company announced new corporate layoffs.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In a message to employees, the CEO said DoorDash is laying off 1,250 corporate employees as part of a continued cost-cutting effort.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

That represents about 15% of the company\u2019s workforce.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

DoorDash is offering 17 weeks of severance to the impacted employees and healthcare benefits will continue through March 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n

Fed Chair Set to Speak<\/span><\/h2>\n

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at the Brookings Institution at 1:30 p.m. ET today.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Traders are hoping for more insight on the Fed\u2019s plans to pivot to smaller rate hikes starting at the December meeting as recent data shows inflation cooling.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

CME Group\u2019s <\/span>FedWatch<\/span><\/a> Tool shows 69.9% of traders expecting a 50 basis point hike at the December 14 meeting while 30.1% are anticipating another 75 basis point move.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In a <\/span>tweet<\/span><\/a> this morning, <\/span>Tesla <\/b>(TSLA) CEO Elon Musk said the Fed must cut rates \u201cimmediately\u201d to stop a severe recession.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

He said, \u201cTrend is concerning. Fed needs to cut interest rates immediately. They are massively amplifying the probability of a severe recession.\u201d<\/span>
\n<\/span>
\n<\/span>The Fed Chair has previously said the U.S. will have to experience some economic pain in order to lower inflation.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But he has also insisted there is still a path to lower inflation without plunging the economy into recession.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The Fed also releases its latest Beige Book at 2:00 p.m. ET today.<\/span><\/p>\n

Overall Mortgage Demand Drops Despite Lower Rates<\/span><\/h2>\n

Total mortgage demand fell last week despite rates dropping for the third week in a row.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported total application volume decreased 0.8% last week.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Purchase applications rose 4% weekly but were still down 41% year over year.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Refinance application dropped 13% weekly and 86% annually.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The average 30-year contract rate fell to 6.49% from 6.67%.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pending Home Sales Expected to Fall<\/span><\/h2>\n

The National Association of Realtors reports October pending home sales at 10:00 a.m. ET.<\/span><\/p>\n

That report is expected to show a 5.5% decline following the 10.2% decline in September.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Existing home sales slumped 5.9% last month as high mortgage rates squeeze buyers.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

It\u2019s also a traditionally slower time of year for home sales.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

DJIA Futures: -6 (-0.02%) SPX Futures: +1 (+0.03%) NASDAQ Futures: +11 (+0.1%) Good morning friends! Futures are flat as traders digest mixed economic data ahead of the Fed Chair\u2019s speech today. Let\u2019s get right to it! Private Sector Hiring Cools Private sector job growth came in lighter-than-expected in November.\u00a0 Payroll firm ADP reported private employers added 127,000 workers.\u00a0 That was lower than economists\u2019 expectations for 190,000 and down sharply from 239,000 in October.\u00a0 The leisure and hospitality sector saw the largest gain, adding 224,000 workers.\u00a0 But that increase was offset by large losses in other sectors.\u00a0 Manufacturing lost 100,000 workers in November, professional and business services lost 77,000, financial activities lost 34,000 and information services lost 25,000.\u00a0 Pay increased 7.6% year over year, down from 7.7% in October.\u00a0 This is the first piece of key jobs data this week.\u00a0 The Labor Department releases the October job openings and labor turnover survey at 10:00 a.m. ET today.\u00a0 Then the official November jobs report will be out Friday morning.\u00a0 Economists expect that to show a gain of 200,000 jobs with the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7%.\u00a0 Q3 GDP Growth Revised Higher The U.S. economy expanded more than initially estimated in the third quarter.\u00a0 The Bureau of Economic Analysis\u2019 first revision of Q3 GDP came in at 2.9% vs 2.6% initially.\u00a0 That revision reflects increases in exports, consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and federal government spending.\u00a0 But residential fixed investment and private inventory investment were both lower than initially estimated. DoorDash Announces Layoffs DoorDash (DASH) shares are up 2.9% ahead of the open after the company announced new corporate layoffs.\u00a0 In a message to employees, the CEO said DoorDash is laying off 1,250 corporate employees as part of a continued cost-cutting effort.\u00a0 That represents about 15% of the company\u2019s workforce.\u00a0 DoorDash is offering 17 weeks of severance to the impacted employees and healthcare benefits will continue through March 2023. Fed Chair Set to Speak Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at the Brookings Institution at 1:30 p.m. ET today.\u00a0 Traders are hoping for more insight on the Fed\u2019s plans to pivot to smaller rate hikes starting at the December meeting as recent data shows inflation cooling.\u00a0 CME Group\u2019s FedWatch Tool shows 69.9% of traders expecting a 50 basis point hike at the December 14 meeting while 30.1% are anticipating another 75 basis point move.\u00a0 In a tweet this morning, Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk said the Fed must cut rates \u201cimmediately\u201d to stop a severe recession.\u00a0 He said, \u201cTrend is concerning. Fed needs to cut interest rates immediately. They are massively amplifying the probability of a severe recession.\u201d The Fed Chair has previously said the U.S. will have to experience some economic pain in order to lower inflation.\u00a0 But he has also insisted there is still a path to lower inflation without plunging the economy into recession.\u00a0 The Fed also releases its latest Beige Book at 2:00 p.m. ET today. Overall Mortgage Demand Drops Despite Lower Rates Total mortgage demand fell last week despite rates dropping for the third week in a row.\u00a0 The Mortgage Bankers Association reported total application volume decreased 0.8% last week.\u00a0 Purchase applications rose 4% weekly but were still down 41% year over year.\u00a0 Refinance application dropped 13% weekly and 86% annually.\u00a0 The average 30-year contract rate fell to 6.49% from 6.67%. Pending Home Sales Expected to Fall The National Association of Realtors reports October pending home sales at 10:00 a.m. ET. That report is expected to show a 5.5% decline following the 10.2% decline in September.\u00a0 Existing home sales slumped 5.9% last month as high mortgage rates squeeze buyers.\u00a0 It\u2019s also a traditionally slower time of year for home sales.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":41,"featured_media":65284,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[739],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-65267","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-coffee-with-greta"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65267","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/41"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=65267"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65267\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":65287,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65267\/revisions\/65287"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/65284"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=65267"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=65267"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=65267"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}