{"id":65153,"date":"2022-11-17T09:04:43","date_gmt":"2022-11-17T14:04:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/?p=65153"},"modified":"2022-11-17T09:04:43","modified_gmt":"2022-11-17T14:04:43","slug":"coffee-with-greta-fed-hawks-are-still-circling","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2022\/11\/17\/coffee-with-greta-fed-hawks-are-still-circling\/","title":{"rendered":"Coffee With Greta: Fed Hawks Are Still Circling"},"content":{"rendered":"

DJIA Futures: <\/b>-370 (-1.1%)<\/span><\/p>\n

SPX Futures: <\/b>-50 (-1.3%)<\/span><\/p>\n

NASDAQ Futures: <\/b>-172 (-1.5%)<\/span><\/p>\n

Good morning friends!<\/span><\/p>\n

Futures are falling after hawkish comments from a key Fed official.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Let\u2019s get right to it!<\/span><\/p>\n

Hawkish Fed Comments Spook Traders<\/span><\/h2>\n

St Louis Fed President James Bullard is not backing a pivot on rate hikes yet.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In a speech this morning, Bullard said rate hikes so far \u201chave had only limited effects\u201d on inflation.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

He said \u201cthe policy rate is not yet in a zone that may be considered sufficiently restrictive\u201d and to do so \u201cthe policy rate will need to be increased further\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bullard is a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A chart he used in the presentation reportedly suggested that \u201csufficiently restrictive\u201d rate could be around a 5% to 7% range.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The federal funds rate is currently in a range of 3.75% to 4%.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Treasury yields popped following the comments with the 2-year yield up 6 basis points to 4.45% and the 10-year yield rising 9 basis points to 3.79%.<\/span><\/p>\n

Home Construction Falls Less Than Expected<\/span><\/h2>\n

U.S. home construction slowed less than expected in October.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Census Bureau reported housing starts dropped 4.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.43 million units.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

That was down 8.8% year over year but better than economists\u2019 expectations for an SAAR of 1.41 million units.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Single-family starts dropped 6.1% to an SAAR of 855,000 units while multi-family starts slipped 0.5% to an SAAR of 556,000 units.<\/span><\/p>\n

Permits issued for future home builds also declined less than expected.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The report shows permits were issued at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.53 million units, down 2.4% from September.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Single-family permits fell 3.6% to an SAAR of 839,000 units while multi-family starts dropped 1.9% to an SAAR of 633,000 units.<\/span><\/p>\n

This comes a day after the National Association of Homebuilders sentiment index fell more than expected this month to 33, the lowest reading since June 2012.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

That was down 5 points from October and marked 11 straight months of falling sentiment.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Builder sentiment about current sales conditions dropped 6 points to 39, buyer traffic fell 5 points to 20, and six-month sales expectations fell 4 points to 31.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Weekly Jobless Claims Fall<\/span><\/h2>\n

Weekly jobless claims fell more than expected last week.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Labor Department reported 220,000 Americans filed initial claims for unemployment benefits.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

That was down 6,000 from the previous week and lower than 225,000 expected.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Continuing claims rose by 13,000 to 1.51 million in the week ending November 5. <\/span><\/p>\n

That\u2019s the first time continuing claims have topped 1.5 million since March 2021.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Nvidia Slips On Mixed Results<\/span><\/h2>\n

Nvidia <\/b>(NVDA) shares are falling 1.3% ahead of the open after reporting mixed Q3 results. <\/span>
\n<\/span>
\n<\/span>Here\u2019s how the chipmaker\u2019s results compared to analysts\u2019 expectations:<\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  • Adjusted EPS: $0.59 vs $0.69 expected<\/span><\/li>\n
  • Revenue: $5.93 billion vs $5.77 billion expected<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Revenue was down 17% year over year while gross margins fell 11.6% to 53.6%.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

    The company attributed those lower margins to an inventory charge caused by low data center chip demand in China. <\/span>
    \n<\/span>
    \n<\/span>Nvidia forecast $6 billion in Q4 sales, below analysts\u2019 estimates of $6.09 billion.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

    Macy\u2019s Hikes Forecast After Earnings Beat<\/span><\/h2>\n

    Macy\u2019s <\/b>(M) shares are up 7.1% in premarket trade after beating Q3 expectations and hiking its guidance.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

    Here\u2019s how the department store chain\u2019s results compared to analysts\u2019 expectations:<\/span><\/p>\n

      \n
    • Adjusted EPS: $0.52 vs $0.19 expected<\/span><\/li>\n
    • Revenue: $5.23 billion vs $5.2 billion expected<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Macy\u2019s is not dealing with the same inventory glut as other retailers, with inventory levels up just 4% year over year in Q3.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

      The company forecast annual adjusted EPS of $4.07 to $4.27 vs $4 to $4.20 previously.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

      Macy\u2019s maintained its full-year revenue guidance of $24.34 billion to $24.58 billion.<\/span><\/p>\n

      Kohl\u2019s Yanks Outlook<\/span><\/h2>\n

      Kohl\u2019s <\/b>(KSS) shares are falling 3% ahead of the open after beating Q3 expectations but pulling its Q4 guidance.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

      Here\u2019s how the retailer\u2019s results compared to analysts\u2019 expectations:<\/span><\/p>\n

        \n
      • Adjusted EPS: $0.82 vs $0.77 expected<\/span><\/li>\n
      • Revenue: $4.28 billion vs $4.07 billion expected<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

        Revenue was down 7% year over year while same-store sales dropped 6.9%.<\/span><\/p>\n

        Kohl\u2019s withdrew its full-year guidance, citing volatility in retail and \u201csignificant\u201d macroeconomic headwinds.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

        The company also said board member Tom Kingsbury will serve as interim CEO when Michelle Gass leaves in December.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

        Kohl\u2019s has formed a committee to search for a new CEO.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        DJIA Futures: -370 (-1.1%) SPX Futures: -50 (-1.3%) NASDAQ Futures: -172 (-1.5%) Good morning friends! Futures are falling after hawkish comments from a key Fed official.\u00a0 Let\u2019s get right to it! Hawkish Fed Comments Spook Traders St Louis Fed President James Bullard is not backing a pivot on rate hikes yet.\u00a0 In a speech this morning, Bullard said rate hikes so far \u201chave had only limited effects\u201d on inflation.\u00a0 He said \u201cthe policy rate is not yet in a zone that may be considered sufficiently restrictive\u201d and to do so \u201cthe policy rate will need to be increased further\u201d. Bullard is a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year.\u00a0 A chart he used in the presentation reportedly suggested that \u201csufficiently restrictive\u201d rate could be around a 5% to 7% range.\u00a0 The federal funds rate is currently in a range of 3.75% to 4%.\u00a0 Treasury yields popped following the comments with the 2-year yield up 6 basis points to 4.45% and the 10-year yield rising 9 basis points to 3.79%. Home Construction Falls Less Than Expected U.S. home construction slowed less than expected in October. The Census Bureau reported housing starts dropped 4.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.43 million units.\u00a0 That was down 8.8% year over year but better than economists\u2019 expectations for an SAAR of 1.41 million units.\u00a0 Single-family starts dropped 6.1% to an SAAR of 855,000 units while multi-family starts slipped 0.5% to an SAAR of 556,000 units. Permits issued for future home builds also declined less than expected.\u00a0 The report shows permits were issued at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.53 million units, down 2.4% from September.\u00a0 Single-family permits fell 3.6% to an SAAR of 839,000 units while multi-family starts dropped 1.9% to an SAAR of 633,000 units. This comes a day after the National Association of Homebuilders sentiment index fell more than expected this month to 33, the lowest reading since June 2012.\u00a0 That was down 5 points from October and marked 11 straight months of falling sentiment.\u00a0 Builder sentiment about current sales conditions dropped 6 points to 39, buyer traffic fell 5 points to 20, and six-month sales expectations fell 4 points to 31.\u00a0 Weekly Jobless Claims Fall Weekly jobless claims fell more than expected last week. The Labor Department reported 220,000 Americans filed initial claims for unemployment benefits.\u00a0 That was down 6,000 from the previous week and lower than 225,000 expected.\u00a0 Continuing claims rose by 13,000 to 1.51 million in the week ending November 5. That\u2019s the first time continuing claims have topped 1.5 million since March 2021.\u00a0 Nvidia Slips On Mixed Results Nvidia (NVDA) shares are falling 1.3% ahead of the open after reporting mixed Q3 results. Here\u2019s how the chipmaker\u2019s results compared to analysts\u2019 expectations: Adjusted EPS: $0.59 vs $0.69 expected Revenue: $5.93 billion vs $5.77 billion expected Revenue was down 17% year over year while gross margins fell 11.6% to 53.6%.\u00a0 The company attributed those lower margins to an inventory charge caused by low data center chip demand in China. Nvidia forecast $6 billion in Q4 sales, below analysts\u2019 estimates of $6.09 billion.\u00a0 Macy\u2019s Hikes Forecast After Earnings Beat Macy\u2019s (M) shares are up 7.1% in premarket trade after beating Q3 expectations and hiking its guidance.\u00a0 Here\u2019s how the department store chain\u2019s results compared to analysts\u2019 expectations: Adjusted EPS: $0.52 vs $0.19 expected Revenue: $5.23 billion vs $5.2 billion expected Macy\u2019s is not dealing with the same inventory glut as other retailers, with inventory levels up just 4% year over year in Q3.\u00a0 The company forecast annual adjusted EPS of $4.07 to $4.27 vs $4 to $4.20 previously.\u00a0 Macy\u2019s maintained its full-year revenue guidance of $24.34 billion to $24.58 billion. Kohl\u2019s Yanks Outlook Kohl\u2019s (KSS) shares are falling 3% ahead of the open after beating Q3 expectations but pulling its Q4 guidance.\u00a0 Here\u2019s how the retailer\u2019s results compared to analysts\u2019 expectations: Adjusted EPS: $0.82 vs $0.77 expected Revenue: $4.28 billion vs $4.07 billion expected Revenue was down 7% year over year while same-store sales dropped 6.9%. Kohl\u2019s withdrew its full-year guidance, citing volatility in retail and \u201csignificant\u201d macroeconomic headwinds.\u00a0 The company also said board member Tom Kingsbury will serve as interim CEO when Michelle Gass leaves in December.\u00a0 Kohl\u2019s has formed a committee to search for a new CEO.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":41,"featured_media":65156,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[739],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-65153","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-coffee-with-greta"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65153","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/41"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=65153"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65153\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":65159,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65153\/revisions\/65159"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/65156"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=65153"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=65153"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=65153"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}