{"id":64063,"date":"2022-09-30T16:03:02","date_gmt":"2022-09-30T20:03:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/?p=64063"},"modified":"2023-01-03T15:55:34","modified_gmt":"2023-01-03T20:55:34","slug":"david-prince-interview-inner-circle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2022\/09\/30\/david-prince-interview-inner-circle\/","title":{"rendered":"How Bear Markets Work &#8211; David Prince Talks Anxiety, Pain, and the Light at the End of the Tunnel"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Want to learn how to trade through a bear market while keeping your sanity and wallet intact? Then check out this interview with David Prince, Founder of our <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/t3live.com\/ic\">Inner Circle<\/a><\/strong><\/span> community.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><iframe title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/fr3h_hxfDQo\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>David delivers the cold, hard truth about bear markets, including:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>What a bear market is beyond a mere 20% decline in the SPX<\/li>\n<li>The psychological toll the market takes on your brain<\/li>\n<li>How to keep your head screwed on straight when volatility is high<\/li>\n<li>Where he is finding opportunity<\/li>\n<li>The stocks he is watching for 2023 and 2024<\/li>\n<li>What's different about the oil sector<\/li>\n<li>What he sees in the semiconductor and housing markets<\/li>\n<li>What a bottom really looks like<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>And more!<\/p>\n<p><strong>FULL INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em>Note: this interview has been edited for length and clarity.<\/em><i><\/i><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Michael Comeau: David, I\u2019ll start by asking you a simple question: What is a <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.t3live.com\/what-is-a-bear-market\/\">bear market<\/a><\/strong><\/span>?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">David Prince:\u00a0 There\u2019s the classic definition of a being 20% down from the highs. But the way I see it, a bear market is a market that is trending lower and has not hit a bottom, and doesn't have one in the foreseeable future.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MC: Can you talk about the psychological impact of a bear market? What is that doing to people's minds right now?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">DP: Sure. You have the initial reaction: \u201cOh my God, it's not easy anymore the way it used to be.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Then you have the \u201cOkay ,I hope it gets better\u201d phase.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Then you\u2019re in the \u201chope didn't work, I've lost money, and this is starting to get painful&#8221; phase.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Then you have the \u201cI need to find a new career&#8221; phase.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Finally, you have the panic and distaste and lack of interest. It's a long process that many people don't adjust to or recognize until they're halfway through.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sometimes you have angry people. And course, there are happy aggressive traders that love downside momentum because things go down much faster than they go up. For some people, bear markets are great.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MC: How do you view the temperature out there now? The <strong>VIX<\/strong> is up about 65% in the last few weeks and all the sentiment indicators are very negative. Are people pessimistic enough?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">DP: No. We saw so many bullish extremes in 2021 and I expect\u00a0 more of the same on the downside. I\u2019ve been around for a while and I\u2019ve seen a lot of crazy things happen, but nothing like JPEGs selling for millions of dollars or <strong>Plug Power<\/strong> (PLUG) hitting $70. And cockamamie companies that have been around for decades losing money becoming hot stocks.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">You had names like <strong>Snowflake<\/strong> (SNOW) come off the lows from earnings and go up something like 70-80%. That's not indicative of everyone being despondent and it's not anywhere near the way you bottom.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There is not that ever-present fear, like people waking up and asking \u201chow much money am I going to lose?\u201d I haven't seen that yet.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MC: So let's talk about the silly stuff. We saw a boom in things like NFT\u2019s, Rolex watches, sports cars, electric guitars, trading card games, cryptos. Has that stuff bottomed?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">DP: It\u2019s sort of irrelevant to me.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">I won't judge Where we are in the marketplace by really like how far Bitcoin has dropped. It Doesn't have to go to $10,000 or $12,000 to create a bottom in risk assets. I almost don't care.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">I don't think the lows are in for the art market and the watch market. I'm into collectables, like sneakers, art, you name it.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The point is that market has only barely come up.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The car market is just beginning to implode. There will be upside down Lamborghinis everywhere you look over the next couple of years. You\u2019ll be able to buy them for pennies on the dollar.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There's further to go, but I don't paint them all with the same brush.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MC: Months ago, inside <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/t3live.com\/ic\">Inner Circle<\/a><\/strong><\/span>, you talked about the semiconductor industry moving into a state of oversupply. Now JP Morgan is talking about oversupply of everything. Do you think that\u2019s priced in?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">DP: It\u2019s a process and it\u2019s not a one-quarter deal. It's often two to three quarters. And the difference this time is the amount of orders &#8211; the that double and triple catch-up to what they thought demand could be. The downside here might be longer and more severe than we normally see.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">These stocks will bottom before the news flow changes. But I don't think they've hit bottom yet because of the ordering that every major chip company did in 2020 and 2021.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MC: It feels like a lot of high-profile\u00a0 market people are catching flack. Like Cathie Wood wrote that letter to the Fed and people laughed. And Jim Cramer has been catching a lot of flack with the inverse ETF and those sorts of things. It seems like we\u2019re in hero-killing mode, symbolically. Do you think that's fair to them?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">DP: When you put yourself out there publicly, it comes with the territory, right? Movie stars complain about not having privacy, but then they make $20 million on their next film. So the direct answer is how they handle it. I think, in both instances, neither has humility. I think Cramer is beyond bright. If he was just a little bit more humble and talked about his mistakes, it would be better. And Cathie never said \u201cI probably made a mistake here.\u201d Neither of them had any humility, and that's why they're so attacked.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">I make mistakes all the time, but at least I come clean.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Josh Brown made a bad call on the CPI and he came clean and said he was wrong. No one thinks about it anymore because he was humble about it. So I think they deserve it because they pretend they don't make mistakes.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MC: Let\u2019s talk about humility. I felt like a genius in 2020, less smart in 2021, and a moron this year because I see an awful lot of red in my account. What advice do you have for people that went from having it easy to having it tough now?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">DP:\u00a0 The first thing is to understand is we may not see 2020-2021 again for another decade or two. We saw things you're not supposed to see in financial instruments and markets. I'm not going to play Mr. Macro Expert here, but we all know it was a lethal combination of our government and Fed officials flooding everything with money.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The quicker you adjust to reality, the better it is, and here's the good news: if you can make it through this new game, you have a realistic view of what markets are like. Over the next few years, you're going to have constant 10% and 20% pullbacks, which used to happen all the time.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This resembles reality a bit more. So if you can figure out how to include valuation with your charts, the better off you\u2019ll be. I've been telling the <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/t3live.com\/ic\">Inner Circle trading community<\/a><\/strong><\/span> about the semiconductor implosion for a long time, and I didn't have to look at charts to save me a lot of money on the downside.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">I\u2019m not even close to perfect. I just made a mistake with <\/span><b>AMD<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (AMD). The quicker you educate yourself and adjust down the road, the easier trading gets down the road. If\u00a0 you can figure that out today, then you can have a real future.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MC: You talked about how the market wouldn't move before the news flow got positive. Are you doing any long-term buying at all?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">DP: I\u2019m buying a little here and there, but nothing of any real significance because we\u2019re ruled by the averages. The indices are what guide us overall, so it may not matter whether I think <strong>NVIDIA<\/strong> (NVDA) is oversold. If the <strong>QQQ\u2019s<\/strong> have 20 more points of downside, that\u2019s going to hurt a lot of risk assets\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If I'm buying long-term, it's very slow and small until I feel the averages are at a reasonable level where I have an edge. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When I'm long, I want names that can go up without the averages.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If I'm short, I want that stock to be able to go down or implode without the averages.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The key to trading is relying as little as possible on the market. Right now there are very few stocks that can do that.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MC: Can you talk about some of the names that have a chance of escaping the storm?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">DP: There is the oil sector, names like<\/span><b> Halliburton<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (HAL) or <\/span><b>Occidental<\/b> <b>Petreoleum<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (OXY). But beyond that, every company is at risk &#8212; from restaurants to financials to semis to cloud to software names, which are still expensive relative to history.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The problem is that oil follows the rest of the economy. So if we're going into a recession, I believe oil will follow to the downside. You have to be careful there.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Amazon<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (AMZN) is interesting. It was the first to rally during Covid and one of my largest positions, but it hit every single pothole they possibly could, and it's been a disaster outside of the cloud\/AWS business. It should rally early in a better market and\u00a0would be one of my favorites for 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Google<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (GOOGL) will be too cheap around $90.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In bear markets, I concentrate on larger names, because they bounce first.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">I adore <\/span><b>Restoration Hardware<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (RH), but we haven't hit a bottom in the housing market. So that's one to watch over the next few months.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MC: that's a good segue to talk about earnings season, which is coming soon. Everyone fears the supply glut. We just saw <\/span><b>Nike\u2019s<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (NKE) inventory spiraling out of control. You also hear that with <strong>Wal-Mart<\/strong> (WMT), <strong>Target<\/strong> (TGT), etc. Is that priced in?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">DP: The market\u2019s direction is solely dependent on the Federal Reserve and the CPI. It's not going to be whether companies beat or miss. It\u2019s whether the Fed is closer to the end of this rate hike cycle.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It's going to be the worst earning season in 4 or 5 years, and many of those stocks might be up. That depends on whether markets are oversold. And if people can look forward into 2023 when comps get better, that would help. But big picture, it's all about the Fed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MC: Do you think the Fed will succeed in a soft landing?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">DP: I don't think that's remotely possible. The highs were too high. There are too many industries like the housing and car markets. So we\u2019re in for pain on the other side. We're not anywhere near 2008, but I don't see us just being fine.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Fed was so late to the game talking about transitory silliness, and now it feels like they're doing the same thing all over again. So I think they have no shot at a soft landing.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But here's the problem. They risk credibility if they take their foot off the gas.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">They are in a no-win situation so they\u2019re caught between a rock and a hard place.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MC: Let's get down to the details of making money in the market now because we don't want to just avoid the bear market car crash, we want to make some money where we can. So what's working for you now?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">DP: Here's what I've been preaching for 9-10 months: less positions, less size. Don't be a hero. So what does that mean in English? I take traders when the risk-reward sets me up for a single or a double. Not a home run. Think about compounding growth which adds up.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Recently, it\u2019s been short-term plays in <\/span><b>Tesla<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (TSLA) because I like the volatility. So I\u2019ll put on small positions, buying dips and selling rips inside the ranges. They key is to string together those singles because they add up.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MC: it does seem like the wins in a smaller number of names like <strong>Tesla<\/strong> (TSLA), the <strong>QQQ\u2019s<\/strong>, and <strong>ENPH<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">DP: Really successful traders try and find a trend and stick with it. Like <strong>Nucor<\/strong> (NUE), which broke down from $130 to $100. I understood how it trades, so we focused on that name.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">You hear the same names over and over because we\u2019re taking less positions and just sticking with what's working.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MC: Do you naturally have a better feel for certain names?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">DP: I think I was built on volatility. That's where I do best. The QQQ\u2019s inherently have more volatility than SPY, so I gravitate there. The same is true for growth stocks overall, where I I have an edge because I embrace volatility, though not in a cowboy way.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">My age helps because I can remember semiconductor gluts and understand how low they can go in bear markets. I remember when AMD and Nvidia traded for 8-15 times earnings.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">And I understand that <strong>Lennar<\/strong> (LEN) is not an easy buy, even though it's trading at five times earnings. Because that means it's really 10 times earnings, because the earnings will get cut in half.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MC: So what is the market teaching you these days?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">DP: I learned that anything can happen. Things that I\u2019d bet my life savings against. Like <strong>GameStop<\/strong> (GME). Don't discount even the craziest thoughts because extremes can happen.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Look at <strong>Teladoc<\/strong> (TDOC). I like the concept of the business, but I never dreamed it would hit $300. And then $25. The extremes are just so immense.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">And there are so many companies that have no business being public, raising money without a business plan.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Anything can happen, and I used to feel like the markets weren't like that. Now there\u2019s stuff you couldn\u2019t make up if you were writing a movie.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MC: So many of these work form home, stay at home stocks are lower than they were in January 2020, like <\/span><b>Zoom<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (ZM). Are these buying opportunities?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">DP: No. This is where understanding finance helps. A lot of those names are bigger because they\u2019ve done a lot of secondaries. You have to go by market cap and enterprise value. So the market caps might be higher even though the stock price was cut in half.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">And no one in their right mind should ever buy a stock based on what percentage it is from all-time highs, especially in a bear marekt.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When reality sets in and valuations matter, being down 50% off the highs means nothing.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MC: So how do you know when valuation matters?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">DP: Well in this case, the Fed told in January that they\u2019ve changed. They used this word transitory for long, and then stopped. I wish I embraced the downside even more. <\/span>The Fed was out there backstopping things like we've never seen for two years, and then they shifted gears.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MC: Traders\u2019 anxiety levels are through the roof because of the daily ups and down So, how do you deal with those day-to-day stresses in the market?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">DP: First, I always tell people to read the Mark Douglas book \u201cTrading in the Zone,\u201d which will help you get control of your emotions.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Then, do less, and leave yourself room to not be exactly right. Bear markets by nature take people out at the bottom. Then we have these cutie bear market rallies which force shorts to cover, and then we go back lower.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">I deal with it in a very simple way, with no magic.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">I buy less. I leave room to buy more because I assume my first buy may be wrong.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">And I always have an out.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So when I time my buys right, I do well because there's nothing better than a bear market rally. They're much more vicious than bull market rallies.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Whether you're shorting or going long, size down, because size dictates emotion.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MC: You talked about making mistakes with AMD. How do you develop a good sense of humility?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">DP: It\u2019s thinking of this is an everyday business where you make mistakes and learn.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The best CEOs and managers, since the beginning of time, have run their businesses that way. And you learn from the people around you, which is what <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/t3live.com\/ic\">Inner Circle<\/a><\/strong><\/span> is all about. You learn what works, and what doesn\u2019t.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">You have to get comfortable with admitting your mistakes. If you pretend they don't exist, they will keep coming back. You will make the same dumb mistakes over and over.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The quicker you recognize what you're bad at, the better off you\u2019ll be.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MC: So what do you think holds people back from being honest with themselves? Because you see your P&L. You're either making money or you\u2019re not.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">DP: One thing I learned from &#8220;Trading in the Zone&#8221; is we are predisposed to feel awful when we're wrong. When you're wrong, you feel bad. Some people would rather lose money and not be wrong. I know that doesn't make sense.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Trading is about making money when you can, and keeping your losses small.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Too many people are caught up with being right or wrong. The minute you take that part out, you start getting better. But people are built emotionally to not want to be wrong.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MC: That\u2019s the perfect note to end on. David, I hope you will join us once again.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">DP: Thank you Michael. I\u2019m sure we\u2019ll do another event soon.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/t3live.com\/ic\">Go here<\/a><\/strong><\/span> to learn more about Inner Circle.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Want to learn how to trade through a bear market while keeping your sanity and wallet intact? Then check out this interview with David Prince, Founder of our Inner Circle community.\u00a0 David delivers the cold, hard truth about bear markets, including: What a bear market is beyond a mere 20% decline in the SPX The psychological toll the market takes on your brain How to keep your head screwed on straight when volatility is high Where he is finding opportunity The stocks he is watching for 2023 and 2024 What&#8217;s different about the oil sector What he sees in the semiconductor and housing markets What a bottom really looks like And more! FULL INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT Note: this interview has been edited for length and clarity. Michael Comeau: David, I\u2019ll start by asking you a simple question: What is a bear market? David Prince:\u00a0 There\u2019s the classic definition of a being 20% down from the highs. But the way I see it, a bear market is a market that is trending lower and has not hit a bottom, and doesn&#8217;t have one in the foreseeable future.\u00a0 MC: Can you talk about the psychological impact of a bear market? What is that doing to people&#8217;s minds right now?\u00a0 DP: Sure. You have the initial reaction: \u201cOh my God, it&#8217;s not easy anymore the way it used to be.\u201d Then you have the \u201cOkay ,I hope it gets better\u201d phase. Then you\u2019re in the \u201chope didn&#8217;t work, I&#8217;ve lost money, and this is starting to get painful&#8221; phase. Then you have the \u201cI need to find a new career&#8221; phase. Finally, you have the panic and distaste and lack of interest. It&#8217;s a long process that many people don&#8217;t adjust to or recognize until they&#8217;re halfway through. Sometimes you have angry people. And course, there are happy aggressive traders that love downside momentum because things go down much faster than they go up. For some people, bear markets are great. MC: How do you view the temperature out there now? The VIX is up about 65% in the last few weeks and all the sentiment indicators are very negative. Are people pessimistic enough? DP: No. We saw so many bullish extremes in 2021 and I expect\u00a0 more of the same on the downside. I\u2019ve been around for a while and I\u2019ve seen a lot of crazy things happen, but nothing like JPEGs selling for millions of dollars or Plug Power (PLUG) hitting $70. And cockamamie companies that have been around for decades losing money becoming hot stocks. You had names like Snowflake (SNOW) come off the lows from earnings and go up something like 70-80%. That&#8217;s not indicative of everyone being despondent and it&#8217;s not anywhere near the way you bottom.\u00a0 There is not that ever-present fear, like people waking up and asking \u201chow much money am I going to lose?\u201d I haven&#8217;t seen that yet. MC: So let&#8217;s talk about the silly stuff. We saw a boom in things like NFT\u2019s, Rolex watches, sports cars, electric guitars, trading card games, cryptos. Has that stuff bottomed? DP: It\u2019s sort of irrelevant to me.\u00a0 I won&#8217;t judge Where we are in the marketplace by really like how far Bitcoin has dropped. It Doesn&#8217;t have to go to $10,000 or $12,000 to create a bottom in risk assets. I almost don&#8217;t care. I don&#8217;t think the lows are in for the art market and the watch market. I&#8217;m into collectables, like sneakers, art, you name it. The point is that market has only barely come up.\u00a0 The car market is just beginning to implode. There will be upside down Lamborghinis everywhere you look over the next couple of years. You\u2019ll be able to buy them for pennies on the dollar. There&#8217;s further to go, but I don&#8217;t paint them all with the same brush. MC: Months ago, inside Inner Circle, you talked about the semiconductor industry moving into a state of oversupply. Now JP Morgan is talking about oversupply of everything. Do you think that\u2019s priced in? DP: It\u2019s a process and it\u2019s not a one-quarter deal. It&#8217;s often two to three quarters. And the difference this time is the amount of orders &#8211; the that double and triple catch-up to what they thought demand could be. The downside here might be longer and more severe than we normally see.\u00a0 These stocks will bottom before the news flow changes. But I don&#8217;t think they&#8217;ve hit bottom yet because of the ordering that every major chip company did in 2020 and 2021. MC: It feels like a lot of high-profile\u00a0 market people are catching flack. Like Cathie Wood wrote that letter to the Fed and people laughed. And Jim Cramer has been catching a lot of flack with the inverse ETF and those sorts of things. It seems like we\u2019re in hero-killing mode, symbolically. Do you think that&#8217;s fair to them?\u00a0 DP: When you put yourself out there publicly, it comes with the territory, right? Movie stars complain about not having privacy, but then they make $20 million on their next film. So the direct answer is how they handle it. I think, in both instances, neither has humility. I think Cramer is beyond bright. If he was just a little bit more humble and talked about his mistakes, it would be better. And Cathie never said \u201cI probably made a mistake here.\u201d Neither of them had any humility, and that&#8217;s why they&#8217;re so attacked. I make mistakes all the time, but at least I come clean.\u00a0\u00a0 Josh Brown made a bad call on the CPI and he came clean and said he was wrong. No one thinks about it anymore because he was humble about it. So I think they deserve it because they pretend they don&#8217;t make mistakes. MC: Let\u2019s talk about humility. I felt like a genius in 2020, less smart in 2021, and a moron this year because I see an awful lot of red in my account. What advice do<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":57921,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[747],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-64063","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-inner-circle"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64063","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=64063"}],"version-history":[{"count":24,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64063\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":65736,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64063\/revisions\/65736"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/57921"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=64063"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=64063"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=64063"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}