{"id":5756,"date":"2016-09-22T10:51:57","date_gmt":"2016-09-22T14:51:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thet3trader.com\/?p=5756"},"modified":"2016-09-22T10:51:57","modified_gmt":"2016-09-22T14:51:57","slug":"newsflash-this-stock-market-is-not-loved","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2016\/09\/22\/newsflash-this-stock-market-is-not-loved\/","title":{"rendered":"Newsflash: This Stock Market Is Not Loved"},"content":{"rendered":"

Permabulls always say everyone's bearish.<\/p>\n

And permabears always say everyone's bullish.<\/p>\n

Neither side likes to provide evidence for their views.<\/p>\n

So I regularly run through a wide variety of sentiment measures to get a realistic reflection of the market's mood.<\/p>\n

According to 7 sentiment measures I track, traders are slightly bearish, even though we're within 1% of the all-time SPX <\/strong>high.<\/p>\n

Let's go through them one by one:<\/p>\n

1) SPX Options Prices – Bearish<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

SPX options prices show a high put skew.<\/p>\n

I looked at 10% out-of-the money 6-month SPX options. There is currently a 10 point skew on the puts, which is the\u00a098th percentile for the past 5 years.<\/p>\n

So relative to calls, traders are paying more for 10% OTM 6 month puts than they have 98% of the time over the past 5 years.<\/p>\n

2) ISE Sentiment – Bearish<\/strong><\/p>\n

The ISE Sentiment Index closed at just 63 yesterday (63 puts for every 100 calls).<\/p>\n

And its 10-day moving average is just 81.1 — a level that indicates bearishness.<\/p>\n

Markets tend to overheat with 10-day MA readings well over 100, so we're not even close to that.<\/p>\n

3) AAII Sentiment – Bearish<\/strong><\/p>\n

The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 24.8% of individual investors are bullish.<\/p>\n

This is well below the long-term average of 38.4%, and below the 2016 YTD average of 28.1%.<\/p>\n

Bearish sentiment is at 38.3%, the highest it's been since the February 11 bottom, when it spiked to 48.7%.<\/p>\n

4) Investors Intelligence – Neutral<\/strong><\/p>\n

Yesterday, the Investors Intelligence Survey of newsletter writers\u00a0showed the 4th straight decline in bullishness with a drop to\u00a044.6% bullish from 49% last week.<\/p>\n

Bears are at a 10-week high at 24.3%.<\/p>\n

5) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Neutral<\/strong><\/p>\n

The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio was 0.63 yesterday, which is above the YTD average of 0.5, and right in-line with the 5-year average of 0.65.<\/p>\n

This points to neutral sentiment.<\/p>\n

6) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bullish<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Fear & Greed Index is at 61, which is modestly in the ‘Greed' category.<\/p>\n

F&G operates on a 1-100 scale, and 50 is neutral)<\/p>\n

7) Wall Street Strategists – Bullish<\/strong><\/p>\n

The average year-end 2017 target price for the S&P 500 is 2391.44, according to Bloomberg.<\/p>\n

This implies a 9.7% gain from here — basically in-line with historic stock market averages.<\/p>\n

*********<\/p>\n

So we have 3 bearish indicators, 2 neutral indicators, and 2 bullish indicators.<\/p>\n

Blend them together and you have a slightly bearish crowd.<\/p>\n

I'm hearing a lot of bears saying that everyone's complacent… but I just don't see it.<\/p>\n

P.S. Interested in prop trading? Sign up for today\u2019s FREE webinar and find out if a prop career makes sense for you.<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Permabulls always say everyone’s bearish. And permabears always say everyone’s bullish. Neither side likes to provide evidence for their views. So I regularly run through a wide variety of sentiment measures to get a realistic reflection of the market’s mood. According to 7 sentiment measures I track, traders are slightly bearish, even though we’re within 1% of the all-time SPX high. Let’s go through them one by one: 1) SPX Options Prices – Bearish SPX options prices show a high put skew. I looked at 10% out-of-the money 6-month SPX options. There is currently a 10 point skew on the puts, which is the\u00a098th percentile for the past 5 years. So relative to calls, traders are paying more for 10% OTM 6 month puts than they have 98% of the time over the past 5 years. 2) ISE Sentiment – Bearish The ISE Sentiment Index closed at just 63 yesterday (63 puts for every 100 calls). And its 10-day moving average is just 81.1 — a level that indicates bearishness. Markets tend to overheat with 10-day MA readings well over 100, so we’re not even close to that. 3) AAII Sentiment – Bearish The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 24.8% of individual investors are bullish. This is well below the long-term average of 38.4%, and below the 2016 YTD average of 28.1%. Bearish sentiment is at 38.3%, the highest it’s been since the February 11 bottom, when it spiked to 48.7%. 4) Investors Intelligence – Neutral Yesterday, the Investors Intelligence Survey of newsletter writers\u00a0showed the 4th straight decline in bullishness with a drop to\u00a044.6% bullish from 49% last week. Bears are at a 10-week high at 24.3%. 5) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Neutral The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio was 0.63 yesterday, which is above the YTD average of 0.5, and right in-line with the 5-year average of 0.65. This points to neutral sentiment. 6) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bullish The Fear & Greed Index is at 61, which is modestly in the ‘Greed’ category. F&G operates on a 1-100 scale, and 50 is neutral) 7) Wall Street Strategists – Bullish The average year-end 2017 target price for the S&P 500 is 2391.44, according to Bloomberg. This implies a 9.7% gain from here — basically in-line with historic stock market averages. ********* So we have 3 bearish indicators, 2 neutral indicators, and 2 bullish indicators. Blend them together and you have a slightly bearish crowd. I’m hearing a lot of bears saying that everyone’s complacent… but I just don’t see it. P.S. Interested in prop trading? Sign up for today\u2019s FREE webinar and find out if a prop career makes sense for you.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":4094,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,1],"tags":[44,302,45,303,304,305,30,47],"class_list":["post-5756","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles","category-uncategorized","tag-aaii","tag-aaii-sentiment","tag-cboe-equity-put-call","tag-cnn-fear-greed-index","tag-ise-sentiment","tag-ise-sentiment-index","tag-options","tag-sentiment"],"yoast_head":"\nNewsflash: This Stock Market Is Not Loved - T3 Live<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2016\/09\/22\/newsflash-this-stock-market-is-not-loved\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Newsflash: This Stock Market Is Not Loved - T3 Live\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Permabulls always say everyone's bearish. And permabears always say everyone's bullish. Neither side likes to provide evidence for their views. So I regularly run through a wide variety of sentiment measures to get a realistic reflection of the market's mood. According to 7 sentiment measures I track, traders are slightly bearish, even though we're within 1% of the all-time SPX high. Let's go through them one by one: 1) SPX Options Prices – Bearish SPX options prices show a high put skew. I looked at 10% out-of-the money 6-month SPX options. There is currently a 10 point skew on the puts, which is the\u00a098th percentile for the past 5 years. So relative to calls, traders are paying more for 10% OTM 6 month puts than they have 98% of the time over the past 5 years. 2) ISE Sentiment – Bearish The ISE Sentiment Index closed at just 63 yesterday (63 puts for every 100 calls). And its 10-day moving average is just 81.1 — a level that indicates bearishness. Markets tend to overheat with 10-day MA readings well over 100, so we're not even close to that. 3) AAII Sentiment – Bearish The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 24.8% of individual investors are bullish. This is well below the long-term average of 38.4%, and below the 2016 YTD average of 28.1%. Bearish sentiment is at 38.3%, the highest it's been since the February 11 bottom, when it spiked to 48.7%. 4) Investors Intelligence – Neutral Yesterday, the Investors Intelligence Survey of newsletter writers\u00a0showed the 4th straight decline in bullishness with a drop to\u00a044.6% bullish from 49% last week. Bears are at a 10-week high at 24.3%. 5) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Neutral The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio was 0.63 yesterday, which is above the YTD average of 0.5, and right in-line with the 5-year average of 0.65. This points to neutral sentiment. 6) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bullish The Fear & Greed Index is at 61, which is modestly in the ‘Greed' category. F&G operates on a 1-100 scale, and 50 is neutral) 7) Wall Street Strategists – Bullish The average year-end 2017 target price for the S&P 500 is 2391.44, according to Bloomberg. This implies a 9.7% gain from here — basically in-line with historic stock market averages. ********* So we have 3 bearish indicators, 2 neutral indicators, and 2 bullish indicators. Blend them together and you have a slightly bearish crowd. I'm hearing a lot of bears saying that everyone's complacent… but I just don't see it. P.S. Interested in prop trading? Sign up for today\u2019s FREE webinar and find out if a prop career makes sense for you.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2016\/09\/22\/newsflash-this-stock-market-is-not-loved\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"T3 Live\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2016-09-22T14:51:57+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/07\/magnifying-glass-and-watch-01.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"548\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"365\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Michael Comeau\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Michael Comeau\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2016\/09\/22\/newsflash-this-stock-market-is-not-loved\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2016\/09\/22\/newsflash-this-stock-market-is-not-loved\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Michael Comeau\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/#\/schema\/person\/f43d6289d690d77d2d21b55beeb1508b\"},\"headline\":\"Newsflash: This Stock Market Is Not Loved\",\"datePublished\":\"2016-09-22T14:51:57+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2016\/09\/22\/newsflash-this-stock-market-is-not-loved\/\"},\"wordCount\":427,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2016\/09\/22\/newsflash-this-stock-market-is-not-loved\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/07\/magnifying-glass-and-watch-01.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"aaii\",\"aaii sentiment\",\"cboe equity put call\",\"cnn fear & greed index\",\"ise sentiment\",\"ise sentiment index\",\"options\",\"sentiment\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Articles\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2016\/09\/22\/newsflash-this-stock-market-is-not-loved\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2016\/09\/22\/newsflash-this-stock-market-is-not-loved\/\",\"name\":\"Newsflash: This Stock Market Is Not Loved - 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And permabears always say everyone's bullish. Neither side likes to provide evidence for their views. So I regularly run through a wide variety of sentiment measures to get a realistic reflection of the market's mood. According to 7 sentiment measures I track, traders are slightly bearish, even though we're within 1% of the all-time SPX high. Let's go through them one by one: 1) SPX Options Prices – Bearish SPX options prices show a high put skew. I looked at 10% out-of-the money 6-month SPX options. There is currently a 10 point skew on the puts, which is the\u00a098th percentile for the past 5 years. So relative to calls, traders are paying more for 10% OTM 6 month puts than they have 98% of the time over the past 5 years. 2) ISE Sentiment – Bearish The ISE Sentiment Index closed at just 63 yesterday (63 puts for every 100 calls). And its 10-day moving average is just 81.1 — a level that indicates bearishness. Markets tend to overheat with 10-day MA readings well over 100, so we're not even close to that. 3) AAII Sentiment – Bearish The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 24.8% of individual investors are bullish. This is well below the long-term average of 38.4%, and below the 2016 YTD average of 28.1%. Bearish sentiment is at 38.3%, the highest it's been since the February 11 bottom, when it spiked to 48.7%. 4) Investors Intelligence – Neutral Yesterday, the Investors Intelligence Survey of newsletter writers\u00a0showed the 4th straight decline in bullishness with a drop to\u00a044.6% bullish from 49% last week. Bears are at a 10-week high at 24.3%. 5) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Neutral The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio was 0.63 yesterday, which is above the YTD average of 0.5, and right in-line with the 5-year average of 0.65. This points to neutral sentiment. 6) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bullish The Fear & Greed Index is at 61, which is modestly in the ‘Greed' category. F&G operates on a 1-100 scale, and 50 is neutral) 7) Wall Street Strategists – Bullish The average year-end 2017 target price for the S&P 500 is 2391.44, according to Bloomberg. This implies a 9.7% gain from here — basically in-line with historic stock market averages. ********* So we have 3 bearish indicators, 2 neutral indicators, and 2 bullish indicators. Blend them together and you have a slightly bearish crowd. I'm hearing a lot of bears saying that everyone's complacent… but I just don't see it. P.S. Interested in prop trading? 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