{"id":5585,"date":"2016-09-13T16:38:07","date_gmt":"2016-09-13T20:38:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thet3trader.com\/?p=5585"},"modified":"2016-09-13T16:38:07","modified_gmt":"2016-09-13T20:38:07","slug":"t3s-take-3-volatility-back-big-way","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2016\/09\/13\/t3s-take-3-volatility-back-big-way\/","title":{"rendered":"T3\u2019s Take 3: Volatility Is Back in a Big Way"},"content":{"rendered":"

T3\u2019s Take 3: Volatility Is Back in a Big Way<\/strong><\/p>\n

Interested in becoming a professional prop trader?<\/p>\n

Click here to fill out our eligibility<\/a>\u00a0form<\/u><\/strong>.<\/p>\n

*********<\/p>\n

1) Bulls Give Back<\/strong><\/p>\n

Yesterday, the S&P 500 <\/strong>rose 1.5%, the first 1%+ up day since July 8.<\/p>\n

The bears got their revenge today as the index dropped -1.5% to 2126.78, with the VIX <\/strong>rising 17.7% to 17.85.<\/p>\n

Market observers were scrambling to find explanations for the sell-off, but for me, the story remains the same: we are seeing a good old-fashioned return of volatility after 2 months of markets going nowhere.<\/p>\n

Some folks are pointing at deterioration in US economic data \u2013 but that\u2019s nothing new<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n

The real question is what\u2019s next?<\/p>\n

There are no easy answers, but crude oil will be in focus tomorrow given inventory releases today after the close (from the API) and tomorrow morning (from the EIA).<\/p>\n

2) Apple Booms on iPhone Sales Chatter<\/strong><\/p>\n

Apple <\/strong>(AAPL) was a superstar amid a sea of red, rallying 2.4% to $107.95.<\/p>\n

Early this morning, T-Mobile <\/strong>(TMUS) Chief Executive Officer John Legere Tweeted that iPhone 7 pre-orders set company records.<\/p>\n

Sprint <\/strong>(S) CEO Marcelo Claure then jumped into the news flow and added that iPhone pre-orders were nearly 4X higher than last year\u2019s.<\/p>\n

Consumers appear to be upgrading their iPhone at a faster-than-expected rate, and Apple may also be benefiting from a stumble by a key rival Samsung.<\/p>\n

Samsung recalled Galaxy Note 7 smartphone due to exploding batteries, which certainly tilts the iPhone vs. Galaxy debate in Apple\u2019s favor.<\/p>\n

3) VIX-Plosion Trade Update<\/strong><\/p>\n

On August 9, I went long VIX<\/strong>\u00a0calls, based on my expectation that\u00a0the VIX could break over 30 within 2 months<\/strong><\/a><\/u><\/strong>.
\n<\/strong>
\nWe may now be seeing the seeds of such a move, so I don't have plans to lock in profits just yet.<\/p>\n

On Friday, we had the first -1% down day in the\u00a0SPX<\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong>since June 27.<\/p>\n

Yesterday, we had the first 1% up day since July 8.<\/p>\n

And today, the SPX fell \u00a0-1.5% with the\u00a0Russell 2000<\/strong>\u00a0down -1.9%.<\/p>\n

The Nasdaq was ‘only' down -1.1%, but that's largely because\u00a0of Apple\u2019s<\/strong>\u00a0(AAPL) rally.<\/p>\n

So it looks like the summer snoozefest has officially made way for some autumn excitement.<\/p>\n

Wednesday\u2019s Trading Calendar<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)<\/strong><\/p>\n

07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications (9\/9): prior 0.90%
\n08:30 Import Price Index MoM (Aug): exp. -0.10%, prior 0.10%
\n08:30 Import Price Index YoY (Aug): exp. -2.20%, prior -3.70%
\n10:30 DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (9\/9): exp. 4000k, prior -14513k
\n10:30 DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (9\/9): exp. -100k, prior -434k
\n10:30 DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (9\/9): exp. -1100k, prior -4211k
\n10:30 DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (9\/9): exp. 1500k, prior 3382k
\n10:30 DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization (9\/9): exp. -0.35%, prior 0.90%
\n10:30 DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand (9\/9): prior 17600
\n10:30 DOE Gasoline Implied Demand (9\/9): prior 10250
\n10:30 DOE Distillate Implied Demand (9\/9): prior 4655.9<\/p>\n

Global Economics<\/strong><\/p>\n

04:30 GBP Average Earnings Index
\n04:30 GBP Claimant Count Change
\n04:30 GBP Unemployment Rate
\n18:45 NZD GDP q\/q
\n21:30 AUD Unemployment Rate<\/p>\n

Earnings<\/strong><\/p>\n

Before Open:<\/p>\n

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store<\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong>(CBRL)<\/p>\n

After Close:<\/p>\n

Apogee Enterprises<\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong>(APOG)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

T3\u2019s Take 3: Volatility Is Back in a Big Way Interested in becoming a professional prop trader? Click here to fill out our eligibility\u00a0form. ********* 1) Bulls Give Back Yesterday, the S&P 500 rose 1.5%, the first 1%+ up day since July 8. The bears got their revenge today as the index dropped -1.5% to 2126.78, with the VIX rising 17.7% to 17.85. Market observers were scrambling to find explanations for the sell-off, but for me, the story remains the same: we are seeing a good old-fashioned return of volatility after 2 months of markets going nowhere. Some folks are pointing at deterioration in US economic data \u2013 but that\u2019s nothing new. The real question is what\u2019s next? There are no easy answers, but crude oil will be in focus tomorrow given inventory releases today after the close (from the API) and tomorrow morning (from the EIA). 2) Apple Booms on iPhone Sales Chatter Apple (AAPL) was a superstar amid a sea of red, rallying 2.4% to $107.95. Early this morning, T-Mobile (TMUS) Chief Executive Officer John Legere Tweeted that iPhone 7 pre-orders set company records. Sprint (S) CEO Marcelo Claure then jumped into the news flow and added that iPhone pre-orders were nearly 4X higher than last year\u2019s. Consumers appear to be upgrading their iPhone at a faster-than-expected rate, and Apple may also be benefiting from a stumble by a key rival Samsung. Samsung recalled Galaxy Note 7 smartphone due to exploding batteries, which certainly tilts the iPhone vs. Galaxy debate in Apple\u2019s favor. 3) VIX-Plosion Trade Update On August 9, I went long VIX\u00a0calls, based on my expectation that\u00a0the VIX could break over 30 within 2 months. We may now be seeing the seeds of such a move, so I don’t have plans to lock in profits just yet. On Friday, we had the first -1% down day in the\u00a0SPX\u00a0since June 27. Yesterday, we had the first 1% up day since July 8. And today, the SPX fell \u00a0-1.5% with the\u00a0Russell 2000\u00a0down -1.9%. The Nasdaq was ‘only’ down -1.1%, but that’s largely because\u00a0of Apple\u2019s\u00a0(AAPL) rally. So it looks like the summer snoozefest has officially made way for some autumn excitement. Wednesday\u2019s Trading Calendar US Economics (Time Zone: EDT) 07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications (9\/9): prior 0.90% 08:30 Import Price Index MoM (Aug): exp. -0.10%, prior 0.10% 08:30 Import Price Index YoY (Aug): exp. -2.20%, prior -3.70% 10:30 DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (9\/9): exp. 4000k, prior -14513k 10:30 DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (9\/9): exp. -100k, prior -434k 10:30 DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (9\/9): exp. -1100k, prior -4211k 10:30 DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (9\/9): exp. 1500k, prior 3382k 10:30 DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization (9\/9): exp. -0.35%, prior 0.90% 10:30 DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand (9\/9): prior 17600 10:30 DOE Gasoline Implied Demand (9\/9): prior 10250 10:30 DOE Distillate Implied Demand (9\/9): prior 4655.9 Global Economics 04:30 GBP Average Earnings Index 04:30 GBP Claimant Count Change 04:30 GBP Unemployment Rate 18:45 NZD GDP q\/q 21:30 AUD Unemployment Rate Earnings Before Open: Cracker Barrel Old Country Store\u00a0(CBRL) After Close: Apogee Enterprises\u00a0(APOG)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":4099,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,1],"tags":[36,189,107,9,10],"class_list":["post-5585","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles","category-uncategorized","tag-daily-recap","tag-daily-recap-article","tag-take-3","tag-vix","tag-volatility"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5585","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5585"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5585\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4099"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5585"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5585"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5585"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}