{"id":5179,"date":"2016-08-26T16:05:52","date_gmt":"2016-08-26T20:05:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thet3trader.com\/?p=5179"},"modified":"2016-08-26T16:05:52","modified_gmt":"2016-08-26T20:05:52","slug":"t3s-take-janet-yellen-sets-off-rollercoaster","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2016\/08\/26\/t3s-take-janet-yellen-sets-off-rollercoaster\/","title":{"rendered":"T3&#8217;s Take 3: Janet Yellen Sets Off a Rollercoaster"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>1) Fed Follies: Jackson Hole Edition<\/b><\/p>\n<p>Traders were looking for a hawkish Yellen and a hawkish Yellen is what they got.<\/p>\n<p>At her highly-awaited Jackson Hole speech, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said that the case for rate hikes \u201chas strengthened in recent months,\u201d echoing recent hawkish comments from other Fed officials.<\/p>\n<p>Initially, the market made the obvious moves\u00a0\u2014 the US dollar spiked, and gold and US Treasuries collapsed.<\/p>\n<p>However, the moves were very quickly retraced, with the dollar and gold falling.<\/p>\n<p>This implied the market was having a massive &#8220;sell the news&#8221; reaction to Yellen\u00a0meeting market expectations.<\/p>\n<p><strong>2) The Reaction to the Reaction to the Reaction<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Following that counter-reaction, the big hawk trade &#8212; strong dollar and weak gold\/bonds &#8212; continued.<\/p>\n<p>Here is an intra-day chart of the US dollar index starting at 8:00 a.m. ET, which is a pretty good illustration of the market reaction to Yellen's speech:<\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-5183\" src=\"http:\/\/www.t3live.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/08\/DXYerere.gif\" alt=\"DXYerere\" width=\"736\" height=\"552\" \/><\/p>\n<p>As you can see, the dollar briefly dove before skyrocketing into the equity market close.<\/p>\n<p>We saw similar zaniness in gold and US Treasuries.<\/p>\n<p><strong>3) Equity Traders Take a Little Ride<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Fed funds futures now imply a 63% probability of a December rate hike, up from 47% a week ago.<\/p>\n<p>The prospect of higher rates had equity traders taking profits. At one point, the <strong>S&P 500 <\/strong>looked like it may have its first 1% down day since June 27, and the <strong>VIX<\/strong> hit 14.93, a level not seen since early July.<\/p>\n<p>However, stocks crawled up into the close, with the index finishing down -0.2% at 2169.04.<\/p>\n<p>Stocks that benefit from lower interest rates, like utilities, gold miners, and real estate names, took major hits.<\/p>\n<p>On the plus side, biotechnology had a solid up day after afternoon failures on Wednesday and Thursday.<\/p>\n<p>P.S. Want to up your trading skills? <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.thet3trader.com\/free-webinars\/\">Check out our free webinars!<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>Monday's Trading Calendar<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><u><strong>US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)<\/strong><\/u><\/p>\n<p>08:30 Personal Income (Jul): exp. 0.40%, prior 0.20%<br \/>\n08:30 Personal Spending (Jul): exp. 0.30%, prior 0.40%<br \/>\n08:30 Real Personal Spending (Jul): exp. 0.20%, prior 0.30%<br \/>\n08:30 PCE Deflator MoM (Jul): exp. 0.00%, prior 0.10%<br \/>\n08:30 PCE Deflator YoY (Jul): exp. 0.80%, prior 0.90%<br \/>\n08:30 PCE Core MoM (Jul): exp. 0.10%, prior 0.10%<br \/>\n08:30 PCE Core YoY (Jul): exp. 1.50%, prior 1.60%<br \/>\n10:30 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity (Aug): exp. -3, prior -1.3<\/p>\n<p><strong><u>Global Economics<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>All Day GBP Bank Holiday<br \/>\n19:30 JPY Household Spending y\/y<br \/>\n21:30 AUD Building Approvals m\/m<\/p>\n<p><u><strong>Earnings<\/strong><\/u><\/p>\n<p>Before Open:<\/p>\n<p><strong>None of significance<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>After Close:<\/p>\n<p><b>None of significance\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>1) Fed Follies: Jackson Hole Edition Traders were looking for a hawkish Yellen and a hawkish Yellen is what they got. At her highly-awaited Jackson Hole speech, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said that the case for rate hikes \u201chas strengthened in recent months,\u201d echoing recent hawkish comments from other Fed officials. Initially, the market made the obvious moves\u00a0\u2014 the US dollar spiked, and gold and US Treasuries collapsed. However, the moves were very quickly retraced, with the dollar and gold falling. This implied the market was having a massive &#8220;sell the news&#8221; reaction to Yellen\u00a0meeting market expectations. 2) The Reaction to the Reaction to the Reaction Following that counter-reaction, the big hawk trade &#8212; strong dollar and weak gold\/bonds &#8212; continued. Here is an intra-day chart of the US dollar index starting at 8:00 a.m. ET, which is a pretty good illustration of the market reaction to Yellen&#8217;s speech: As you can see, the dollar briefly dove before skyrocketing into the equity market close. We saw similar zaniness in gold and US Treasuries. 3) Equity Traders Take a Little Ride Fed funds futures now imply a 63% probability of a December rate hike, up from 47% a week ago. The prospect of higher rates had equity traders taking profits. At one point, the S&#038;P 500 looked like it may have its first 1% down day since June 27, and the VIX hit 14.93, a level not seen since early July. However, stocks crawled up into the close, with the index finishing down -0.2% at 2169.04. Stocks that benefit from lower interest rates, like utilities, gold miners, and real estate names, took major hits. On the plus side, biotechnology had a solid up day after afternoon failures on Wednesday and Thursday. P.S. Want to up your trading skills? Check out our free webinars! Monday&#8217;s Trading Calendar US Economics (Time Zone: EDT) 08:30 Personal Income (Jul): exp. 0.40%, prior 0.20% 08:30 Personal Spending (Jul): exp. 0.30%, prior 0.40% 08:30 Real Personal Spending (Jul): exp. 0.20%, prior 0.30% 08:30 PCE Deflator MoM (Jul): exp. 0.00%, prior 0.10% 08:30 PCE Deflator YoY (Jul): exp. 0.80%, prior 0.90% 08:30 PCE Core MoM (Jul): exp. 0.10%, prior 0.10% 08:30 PCE Core YoY (Jul): exp. 1.50%, prior 1.60% 10:30 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity (Aug): exp. -3, prior -1.3 Global Economics All Day GBP Bank Holiday 19:30 JPY Household Spending y\/y 21:30 AUD Building Approvals m\/m Earnings Before Open: None of significance After Close: None of significance\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":5183,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,1],"tags":[36,189,147,92,89,207,208,8,107,10],"class_list":["post-5179","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles","category-uncategorized","tag-daily-recap","tag-daily-recap-article","tag-economics","tag-fed","tag-fomc","tag-jackson-hole","tag-janet-yellen","tag-stocks","tag-take-3","tag-volatility"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5179","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5179"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5179\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5183"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5179"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5179"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5179"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}