{"id":4700,"date":"2016-08-04T20:17:13","date_gmt":"2016-08-04T20:17:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thet3trader.com\/?p=4700"},"modified":"2016-08-04T20:17:13","modified_gmt":"2016-08-04T20:17:13","slug":"vix-volatility-boring-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2016\/08\/04\/vix-volatility-boring-market\/","title":{"rendered":"This Is the Most Boring Market Since December 2014"},"content":{"rendered":"

Kick Your Options Trading Up a Notch<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

My buddy Doug Robertson is hosting a FREE options trading webinar this afternoon where he\u2019s teaching his secrets for generating major options profits in volatile markets.<\/span><\/p>\n

Click here for more information<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span>1) The Bank of England Throws Money at the Brexit<\/span><\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

The Bank of England is afraid of the Brexit, so they\u2019re throwing everything including the kitchen sink at the problem.<\/span><\/p>\n

This morning, the BoE cut rates by 25 bps, expanded its QE program by 60 billion pounds, and started a new 10 billion-pound corporate bond purchase plan.<\/span><\/p>\n

The BoE took a massive hack at its growth forecasts, and now sees 2017 GDP at 0.8% vs. 2.3% previously, the biggest cut in its history.<\/span><\/p>\n

30-year UK Gilt yields dropped to all-time lows, and European equity markets rebounded intraday.<\/span><\/p>\n

The UK\u2019s FTSE 100 Index <\/b>rose 1.6%, while the German DAX<\/b> was up 0.6%.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/b>2) The Grind Continues<\/span><\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

Markets have been in a holding pattern over the past few days ahead of tomorrow\u2019s pivotal NFP report, which could move markets in a big way. (more on this below)<\/span><\/p>\n

And the S&P 500\u2019s<\/b> epic boring sideways grind continued today with the index rising 0.02% to 2164.25.<\/span><\/p>\n

Not 2%, not 0.2%, but 0.02%.<\/span><\/p>\n

So you have some perspective on the action, the index has not made a 1% move since July 8, and <\/span>market volatility is even lower now than during the April-May snoozefest<\/a>.<\/b><\/p>\n

In fact, S&P 500 volatility hasn\u2019t been this low since December 2014! <\/span><\/p>\n

Check out this chart of S&P 500 volatility:<\/span><\/p>\n

\"SPedfe\"<\/p>\n

No wonder we can't stay awake…<\/span><\/p>\n

Once again, the Russell 2000<\/b> showed a smidge of outperformance,<\/span><\/p>\n

though biotech <\/b>(IBB) cooled off after 2 days of solid action.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Bank of England\u2019s stimulus package pushed up gold and US Treasuries, and crude oil notched a 2.4% gain on what appears to be short covering.<\/span><\/p>\n

Energy stocks were mixed, but high-yield bonds were strong. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

When crude oil goes up, high-yield energy bonds perform well because default expectations fall.<\/span><\/p>\n

3) NFP Preview<\/span><\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/b>Traders are expecting a 180K increase on nonfarm payrolls with a 4.8% unemployment rate. (see the full consensus estimates below)<\/span><\/p>\n

Last month, we saw a huge 107K beat on the headline number, which just about made up for the 122k miss the month before.<\/span>

Gold and bonds dipped on that report, and then ripped like mad. Equities followed through on the decline in rates with a big 1.5% rally in\u00a0SPX<\/strong>.<\/span>

At this point, it seems like it may take a big headline number to get<\/span><\/p>\n

traders believing the Fed will hike rates — perhaps 250K or more — and it would also help to have the June number revised up.<\/span><\/p>\n

Click here for my in-depth NFP preview.<\/a> <\/span><\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

Friday's Trading Calendar<\/span><\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

08:30 Trade Balance (Jun): exp. -$43.0b, prior -$41.1b<\/span>
08:30 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul): exp. 180k, prior 287k<\/span>
08:30 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision (Jul): prior -6k<\/span>
08:30 Change in Private Payrolls (Jul): exp. 171k, prior 265k<\/span>
08:30 Change in Manufact. Payrolls (Jul): exp. 4k, prior 14k<\/span>
08:30 Unemployment Rate (Jul): exp. 4.80%, prior 4.90%<\/span>
08:30 Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Jul): exp. 0.20%, prior 0.10%<\/span>
08:30 Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Jul): exp. 2.60%, prior 2.60%<\/span>
08:30 Average Weekly Hours All Employees (Jul): exp. 34.4, prior 34.4<\/span>
08:30 Change in Household Employment (Jul): prior 67<\/span>
08:30 Labor Force Participation Rate (Jul): prior 62.70%<\/span>
08:30 Underemployment Rate (Jul): prior 9.60%<\/span>
13:00 Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count (8\/5): prior 463<\/span>
13:00 Baker Hughes U.S. Rotary Gas Rigs (8\/5): prior 86<\/span>
13:00 Baker Hughes U.S. Rotary Oil Rigs (8\/5): prior 374<\/span>
15:00 Consumer Credit (Jun): exp. $16.000b, prior $18.558b<\/span>

Global Economics<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

02:00 EUR German Factory Orders m\/m<\/span>
03:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves<\/span>
03:30 GBP Halifax HPI m\/m<\/span>
08:30 CAD Unemployment Rate<\/span>
10:00 CAD Ivey PMI<\/span><\/p>\n

Earnings<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Before the Open:<\/span><\/p>\n

Cognizant Technology Solutions\u00a0<\/b>(CTSH)<\/span>
SouFun Holding<\/strong>\u00a0(SFUN)<\/span><\/p>\n

After the Close:<\/span><\/p>\n

None of significance<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kick Your Options Trading Up a Notch My buddy Doug Robertson is hosting a FREE options trading webinar this afternoon where he\u2019s teaching his secrets for generating major options profits in volatile markets. Click here for more information \u00a01) The Bank of England Throws Money at the Brexit The Bank of England is afraid of the Brexit, so they\u2019re throwing everything including the kitchen sink at the problem. This morning, the BoE cut rates by 25 bps, expanded its QE program by 60 billion pounds, and started a new 10 billion-pound corporate bond purchase plan. The BoE took a massive hack at its growth forecasts, and now sees 2017 GDP at 0.8% vs. 2.3% previously, the biggest cut in its history. 30-year UK Gilt yields dropped to all-time lows, and European equity markets rebounded intraday. The UK\u2019s FTSE 100 Index rose 1.6%, while the German DAX was up 0.6%. 2) The Grind Continues Markets have been in a holding pattern over the past few days ahead of tomorrow\u2019s pivotal NFP report, which could move markets in a big way. (more on this below) And the S&P 500\u2019s epic boring sideways grind continued today with the index rising 0.02% to 2164.25. Not 2%, not 0.2%, but 0.02%. So you have some perspective on the action, the index has not made a 1% move since July 8, and market volatility is even lower now than during the April-May snoozefest. In fact, S&P 500 volatility hasn\u2019t been this low since December 2014! Check out this chart of S&P 500 volatility: No wonder we can’t stay awake… Once again, the Russell 2000 showed a smidge of outperformance, though biotech (IBB) cooled off after 2 days of solid action. The Bank of England\u2019s stimulus package pushed up gold and US Treasuries, and crude oil notched a 2.4% gain on what appears to be short covering. Energy stocks were mixed, but high-yield bonds were strong. \u00a0 When crude oil goes up, high-yield energy bonds perform well because default expectations fall. 3) NFP Preview Traders are expecting a 180K increase on nonfarm payrolls with a 4.8% unemployment rate. (see the full consensus estimates below) Last month, we saw a huge 107K beat on the headline number, which just about made up for the 122k miss the month before. Gold and bonds dipped on that report, and then ripped like mad. Equities followed through on the decline in rates with a big 1.5% rally in\u00a0SPX. At this point, it seems like it may take a big headline number to get traders believing the Fed will hike rates — perhaps 250K or more — and it would also help to have the June number revised up. Click here for my in-depth NFP preview. Friday’s Trading Calendar US Economics (Time Zone: EDT) 08:30 Trade Balance (Jun): exp. -$43.0b, prior -$41.1b 08:30 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul): exp. 180k, prior 287k 08:30 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision (Jul): prior -6k 08:30 Change in Private Payrolls (Jul): exp. 171k, prior 265k 08:30 Change in Manufact. Payrolls (Jul): exp. 4k, prior 14k 08:30 Unemployment Rate (Jul): exp. 4.80%, prior 4.90% 08:30 Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Jul): exp. 0.20%, prior 0.10% 08:30 Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Jul): exp. 2.60%, prior 2.60% 08:30 Average Weekly Hours All Employees (Jul): exp. 34.4, prior 34.4 08:30 Change in Household Employment (Jul): prior 67 08:30 Labor Force Participation Rate (Jul): prior 62.70% 08:30 Underemployment Rate (Jul): prior 9.60% 13:00 Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count (8\/5): prior 463 13:00 Baker Hughes U.S. Rotary Gas Rigs (8\/5): prior 86 13:00 Baker Hughes U.S. Rotary Oil Rigs (8\/5): prior 374 15:00 Consumer Credit (Jun): exp. $16.000b, prior $18.558b Global Economics 02:00 EUR German Factory Orders m\/m 03:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves 03:30 GBP Halifax HPI m\/m 08:30 CAD Unemployment Rate 10:00 CAD Ivey PMI Earnings Before the Open: Cognizant Technology Solutions\u00a0(CTSH) SouFun Holding\u00a0(SFUN) After the Close: None of significance<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":4702,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,1],"tags":[36,143,39,144],"class_list":["post-4700","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles","category-uncategorized","tag-daily-recap","tag-market-recap","tag-stock-market-recap","tag-t3-live"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4700","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4700"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4700\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4702"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4700"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4700"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4700"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}