Click here for more information <\/b><\/a><\/p>\nBy Michael Comeau <\/b><\/p>\n
1) The Return of Volatility<\/b><\/p>\n
Over the past two weeks, market volatility collapsed as the <\/span>S&P 500<\/b> made a succession of all-time highs within an extremely tight trading range. <\/span><\/p>\nAnd in fact, the S&P hasn\u2019t had a real down day since June 27, when it fell -1.8% in the aftermath of the June 24 Brexit vote.<\/span><\/p>\nThe zero-volatility trend felt like it started to break today as the index dropped as much as -1.1% intraday \u00a0before finishing at 2156.2, down -0.7%. The <\/span>Nasdaq Composite<\/b> and <\/span>Russell 2000 <\/b>showing even bigger losses as traders cut down risk.<\/span><\/p>\nJapan set off the selling by announcing a much smaller-than-expected increase in government spending, which sent the yen higher and global equities lower. <\/span><\/p>\nThe yen is seen as a key safety asset, and thus it tends to rise when markets are uncertain.<\/span><\/p>\nBut that wasn\u2019t the only issue today…<\/span><\/p>\n2) Oil, Economic Data, Banks<\/b><\/p>\n
Crude oil gave up an early gain to slide back below the $40\/barrel mark, which means it\u2019s nearly 25% off the highs.<\/span><\/p>\nGiven that crude oil\u2019s ascent was a major driver of equity market sentiment in the rally off the February 11 lows, a fast drop down can\u2019t be good.<\/span><\/p>\nWe also saw some disappointing economic data, with Personal Income and PCE Deflator numbers missing expectations. <\/span><\/p>\nThis followed Friday\u2019s lousy GDP report, which ended a pretty impressive streak of economic data beats.<\/span><\/p>\nAnd finally, Germany\u2019s <\/span>Commerzbank<\/b> lowered its full-year earnings forecast, with its stock dropping -8.5% intraday to a 24-year low.<\/span><\/p>\nThat put a chill under US banks.<\/span><\/p>\n3) So What\u2019s Next?<\/b><\/p>\n
The pickup in volatility is a good thing, because it means fear is coming back into the market.<\/span><\/p>\nThat could be exactly what we need to reload for another leg higher following this sideways consolidation.<\/span><\/p>\nBut near-term, there\u2019s a decent chance the market goes nowhere until Friday, when the eagerly-awaited July nonfarm payrolls report hits.<\/span><\/p>\nTraders\u2019 rate hike expectations have been declining since Friday\u2019s GDP report. <\/span><\/p>\nBut strong jobs numbers could flip that around in a jiffy, which could send positive reverberations throughout global markets, which is exactly what we saw last month.<\/span><\/p>\nWednesday Preview<\/b><\/p>\n
US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)<\/b><\/p>\n
07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications (7\/29): prior -11.20%<\/span>
\n08:15 ADP Employment Change (Jul): exp. 170k, prior 172k<\/span>
\n09:45 Markit US Services PMI (Jul F): exp. 51, prior 50.9<\/span>
\n09:45 Markit US Composite PMI (Jul F): prior 51.5<\/span>
\n10:00 ISM Non-Manf. Composite (Jul): exp. 55.9, prior 56.5<\/span>
\n10:30 DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (7\/29): exp. -2000k, prior 1671k<\/span>
\n10:30 DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (7\/29): exp. 275k, prior 1110k<\/span>
\n10:30 DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (7\/29): exp. -1000k, prior 452k<\/span>
\n10:30 DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (7\/29): exp. -500k, prior -780k<\/span>
\n10:30 DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization (7\/29): exp. 0.00%, prior -0.80%<\/span>
\n10:30 DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand (7\/29): prior 16713<\/span>
\n10:30 DOE Gasoline Implied Demand (7\/29): prior 10250.9<\/span>
\n10:30 DOE Distillate Implied Demand (7\/29): prior 5122.4<\/span><\/p>\nGlobal Economics<\/b><\/p>\n
04:30 GBP Services PMI<\/span>
\n21:30 AUD Retail Sales m\/m<\/span><\/p>\nEarnings<\/b><\/p>\n
Before the Open:<\/span>
\n3D Systems <\/b>(DDD)<\/span>
\nCharles River Laboratories<\/b> (CRL)<\/span>
\nHumana<\/b> (HUM)<\/span><\/p>\nAfter the Close:<\/span><\/p>\nAlbemarle Corp<\/b> (ALB)<\/span>
\nAllstate Corp <\/b>(ALL)<\/span>
\nContinental Resources <\/b>(CLR)<\/span>
\nJ2 Global <\/b>(JCOM)<\/span>
\nOasis Petroleum <\/b>(OAS)<\/span>
\nTesla Motors <\/b>(TSLA)<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Want to Kick Your Options Trading Up a Notch? My buddy Doug Robertson is hosting a FREE options trading webinar this Thursday where he\u2019s teaching his secrets for generating major options profits in volatile markets. Click here for more information By Michael Comeau 1) The Return of Volatility Over the past two weeks, market volatility collapsed as the S&P 500 made a succession of all-time highs within an extremely tight trading range. And in fact, the S&P hasn\u2019t had a real down day since June 27, when it fell -1.8% in the aftermath of the June 24 Brexit vote. The zero-volatility trend felt like it started to break today as the index dropped as much as -1.1% intraday \u00a0before finishing at 2156.2, down -0.7%. The Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 showing even bigger losses as traders cut down risk. Japan set off the selling by announcing a much smaller-than-expected increase in government spending, which sent the yen higher and global equities lower. The yen is seen as a key safety asset, and thus it tends to rise when markets are uncertain. But that wasn\u2019t the only issue today… 2) Oil, Economic Data, Banks Crude oil gave up an early gain to slide back below the $40\/barrel mark, which means it\u2019s nearly 25% off the highs. Given that crude oil\u2019s ascent was a major driver of equity market sentiment in the rally off the February 11 lows, a fast drop down can\u2019t be good. We also saw some disappointing economic data, with Personal Income and PCE Deflator numbers missing expectations. This followed Friday\u2019s lousy GDP report, which ended a pretty impressive streak of economic data beats. And finally, Germany\u2019s Commerzbank lowered its full-year earnings forecast, with its stock dropping -8.5% intraday to a 24-year low. That put a chill under US banks. 3) So What\u2019s Next? The pickup in volatility is a good thing, because it means fear is coming back into the market. That could be exactly what we need to reload for another leg higher following this sideways consolidation. But near-term, there\u2019s a decent chance the market goes nowhere until Friday, when the eagerly-awaited July nonfarm payrolls report hits. Traders\u2019 rate hike expectations have been declining since Friday\u2019s GDP report. But strong jobs numbers could flip that around in a jiffy, which could send positive reverberations throughout global markets, which is exactly what we saw last month. Wednesday Preview US Economics (Time Zone: EDT) 07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications (7\/29): prior -11.20% 08:15 ADP Employment Change (Jul): exp. 170k, prior 172k 09:45 Markit US Services PMI (Jul F): exp. 51, prior 50.9 09:45 Markit US Composite PMI (Jul F): prior 51.5 10:00 ISM Non-Manf. Composite (Jul): exp. 55.9, prior 56.5 10:30 DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (7\/29): exp. -2000k, prior 1671k 10:30 DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (7\/29): exp. 275k, prior 1110k 10:30 DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (7\/29): exp. -1000k, prior 452k 10:30 DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (7\/29): exp. -500k, prior -780k 10:30 DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization (7\/29): exp. 0.00%, prior -0.80% 10:30 DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand (7\/29): prior 16713 10:30 DOE Gasoline Implied Demand (7\/29): prior 10250.9 10:30 DOE Distillate Implied Demand (7\/29): prior 5122.4 Global Economics 04:30 GBP Services PMI 21:30 AUD Retail Sales m\/m Earnings Before the Open: 3D Systems (DDD) Charles River Laboratories (CRL) Humana (HUM) After the Close: Albemarle Corp (ALB) Allstate Corp (ALL) Continental Resources (CLR) J2 Global (JCOM) Oasis Petroleum (OAS) Tesla Motors (TSLA)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":4094,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,1],"tags":[33,124,39,8,10],"class_list":["post-4634","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles","category-uncategorized","tag-earnings","tag-economic-data","tag-stock-market-recap","tag-stocks","tag-volatility"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4634","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4634"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4634\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4094"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4634"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4634"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4634"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}