{"id":4480,"date":"2016-07-27T12:54:27","date_gmt":"2016-07-27T12:54:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thet3trader.com\/?p=4480"},"modified":"2026-09-23T10:36:06","modified_gmt":"2026-09-23T14:36:06","slug":"scott-redlers-morning-note-fed-dead-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2016\/07\/27\/scott-redlers-morning-note-fed-dead-ahead\/","title":{"rendered":"Scott Redler&#8217;s Morning Note: Fed Dead Ahead"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Editor's Note: This is a special FREE edition of Scott Redler's Morning Note and his extended Morning Call video, which are released at 8:30 a.m. ET each day as part of <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.t3live.com\/newsletters\/all-access\/\">Redler All-Access<\/a><\/strong><\/span>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Please call my team now at 1-888-998-3548<\/strong> if you'd like to get Redler All-Access for FREE.<\/p>\n<p>*************<\/p>\n<p><iframe src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/FffkDIy14zE\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>By Scott Redler<\/p>\n<p>We have mixed markets around the world this morning. Europe has positive action with the <strong>DAX<\/strong> +0.9%, <strong>CAC<\/strong> +1.4%, and the <strong>FTSE<\/strong> +0.3%, even with <strong>DB<\/strong> profits plunging 100% year-over-year.<\/p>\n<p>Asia was mixed as the Nikkei rallied 1.7% and the yen dropped on stimulus talks. <strong>Shanghai<\/strong> bucked the trend and is down 1.9% as they might curb some wealth management products. The <strong>Hang Seng<\/strong> rallied +0.4%.<\/p>\n<p>Our markets have been a bit choppy and erratic in this upper area. Strength has been sold and weakness bought as we've tried to figure out if <strong>SPX<\/strong> can hold above the 2155-2159 upper zone. If it continues to hold, we'll see if it can break and close above 2175 after the 2:00 p.m. Fed announcement today. Some think they could be a bit more hawkish.<\/p>\n<p>Oil has been a drag as it slipped from $51 to below $43 with no real bounce. We'll see if today's 10:30 a.m. inventory number can turn it around to help broaden the rally a bit.<\/p>\n<p><strong>USO<\/strong> has yesterday's low at $10.02 to watch for a possible RDR long.<br \/>\n<strong>UWTI<\/strong> has yesterday's low at $20.27.<\/p>\n<p>Tech has acted much better since last week, when we said it can play catch-up to see all-time highs.<\/p>\n<p><strong>QQQ<\/strong> is opening at 2016 highs. See if they can stay above $114.20 to keep momentum.<\/p>\n<p>Small caps had a choppy day but ended at 2016 highs with the <strong>IWM<\/strong> above $120.60. Now see if it extends and holds above yesterday's high of $120.97.<\/p>\n<p>Banks have been flagging since earnings. Maybe a more hawkish tone gets them to clear this recent consolidation.<br \/>\nI'll write down what needs to hold, then pivots to clear to get back on the move.<\/p>\n<p><strong>XLF<\/strong> has support at $23.55 and clearing $23.70 with volume could bring back buyers.<br \/>\n<strong>JPM<\/strong> has to hold $63.50 and clear $64.30 to resolve the flag higher.<br \/>\n<strong>C<\/strong> has to hold $43.80 and clear $44.40 to resolve the flag higher.<\/p>\n<p><strong>BAC<\/strong> started to go yesterday and cleared $14.40. Holding this can get it back towards $15.<\/p>\n<p><strong>MS<\/strong> started to clear its flag yesterday above $29.15 and it has room towards $30-32.<\/p>\n<p><strong>GS<\/strong> has to hold $159.50 and clear $161.50 to try for the 200 day at $164.50.<\/p>\n<p><u>High-beta tech is on the move in separate patterns<\/u>:<\/p>\n<p><strong>NFLX<\/strong> held its post-earnings low\u00a0<span tabindex=\"0\" data-term=\"goog_1189086655\">Monday<\/span>\u00a0and closed well, giving some a clue to be long into yesterday's gap up on the insider buy. Now see if it holds $90.90 as your pivot support.<\/p>\n<p><strong>AMZN<\/strong> has earnings\u00a0<span tabindex=\"0\" data-term=\"goog_1189086656\">Thursday<\/span>. I would avoid it until then. Recent support is $729-733.<\/p>\n<p><strong>GOOGL<\/strong> has numbers\u00a0<span tabindex=\"0\" data-term=\"goog_1189086657\">Thursday<\/span>. It's been holding $750. It might give a trade above $760.50 before it.<\/p>\n<p><strong>TSLA<\/strong> has lots of headlines flowing. Elon Musk talks up its potential, but also about a money raise. It needs to hold $225 to potentially give another trade above $231.39.<\/p>\n<p><strong>MBLY<\/strong> got hit as news came it ended its relationship with <strong>TSLA<\/strong>. But it could strengthen with BMW. It will need some time. It can head into a gap fill if it clears $46.89.<\/p>\n<p><strong>BABA<\/strong> has acted decent since clearing $80.05, but found resistance again at $85. Earnings aren't until next week. See if it can hold $82.60 until then.<\/p>\n<p><strong>NTES<\/strong> woke up\u00a0<span tabindex=\"0\" data-term=\"goog_1189086658\">Monday<\/span>\u00a0and had some follow-through above $201.50 to hit $206 yesterday. There is no setup now.<\/p>\n<p><strong>PCLN<\/strong> is not doing much, but it is flagging after a big move. Support is $1305.<\/p>\n<p><u>Mega caps:<\/u><\/p>\n<p><strong>AAPL<\/strong> had an impressive quarter after sentiment turned very sour. Now maybe with iPhone 7\/7+ on the way, this stock could be more of a tailwind. It cleared $100.50 last night, giving us a good entry. If it can hold this, it could be more of a focus with decent resistance at $103.50-$105. First step is holding the gap up. Then, it needs to break the downtrend.<\/p>\n<p><strong>MSFT<\/strong> still acts well but it\u2019s a little choppy and extended. There is no setup but it\u2019s fine as long as it holds $55.50.<\/p>\n<p><strong>IBM<\/strong> acts fine but it\u2019s also choppy. It needs to hold $161 to stay constructive.<\/p>\n<p><strong>INTC<\/strong> had a nice move back towards the highs after holding the 21 day at $34. There is not much to do now.<\/p>\n<p><u>Social names<\/u>:<\/p>\n<p><strong>FB<\/strong> reports today after the close as it opens at another all-time high. There is not much to do now. It is priced for perfection. If you are an investor, congratulations. Traders should probably wait until after the report. $122 is the recent pivot high.<\/p>\n<p><strong>TWTR<\/strong> still can't put it together. It's down 10%. There is support at $16.20ish. My options will be at $0. I will let dust settle and see how it shapes up today.<\/p>\n<p><u>Other notables<\/u>:<\/p>\n<p><strong>ACIA:<\/strong> after a big move with multiple pivots, it could use a rest. Jim Cramer pumped it last night. I may look for a cute short vs. $65.59.<\/p>\n<p><strong>TWLO<\/strong> is choppy in this tight upper range. It seems like it needs earnings before the next move\u2019s inside range. It has support at $39.50 and resistance at $41.70.<\/p>\n<p><strong>LVS<\/strong> had a gap & go after earnings. I wouldn't chase it now. See if it digests above the earnings gap at $49.27.<\/p>\n<p><strong>WYNN<\/strong> has had a nice move since clearing the $97 pivot. It still has earnings to contend with. $105 offers some resistance.<\/p>\n<p><strong>FCX<\/strong> had a big reversal after earnings. With a bit of time, perhaps it takes out $12.90 to get back towards $14.<\/p>\n<p>Metals are flattish. We have Fed statements today. <strong>GLD\u2019s<\/strong> recent low is $125.11 after a corrective move from $131+. It will need to clear and close above $126.40 to bring in buyers.<\/p>\n<p><strong>TLT:\u00a0<\/strong>I\u2019m not sure if the recent down move priced in a more hawkish Fed. The recent low is $136.98.<\/p>\n<p><strong><u>Today\u2019s Trading Focus<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>I'm trying to be long for an additional move that has been tough to get. The action has been more stock-specific. I will stay long <strong>SPY<\/strong> and <strong>IWM<\/strong> if they hold support and maybe add if they take out resistance pivots. I bought<strong> AAPL<\/strong> after the print. I'd like to hold it as a swing and add if it holds $100-$101.<\/p>\n<p>I might look for a cute short in <strong>FB <\/strong>as it\u2019s up again pre-earnings. Some profit takers may come in before earnings. I would also like to enter an oil long if it gets a RDR today.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Positions Disclosure:<\/strong> Scott J. Redler is long SPY, IWM, AAPL, JPM, BNSO,<br \/>\nTWTR calls, BABA calls, AMGN calls.<\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-4483\" src=\"http:\/\/www.t3live.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/07\/SPY_2016_07_27.png\" alt=\"SPY_2016_07_27\" width=\"700\" height=\"525\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/07\/SPY_2016_07_27.png 700w, https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/07\/SPY_2016_07_27-300x225.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><br \/>\n<u><strong>Today's Trading Calendar<\/strong><\/u><\/p>\n<p><strong>US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications (7\/22): prior 1.30%<br \/>\n08:30 Durable Goods Orders (Jun P): exp. 1.40%, prior 2.30%<br \/>\n08:30 Durables Ex Transportation (Jun P): exp. 0.30%, prior 0.30%<br \/>\n08:30 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (Jun P): exp. 0.20%, prior 0.40%<br \/>\n08:30 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (Jun P): exp. 0.40%, prior 0.50%<br \/>\n10:00 Pending Home Sales MoM (Jun): exp. 1.20%, prior 3.70%<br \/>\n10:00 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY (Jun): exp. 3.00%, prior 2.40%<br \/>\n10:30 DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (7\/22): exp. 2000k, prior 2342k<br \/>\n10:30 DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (7\/22): exp. 500k, prior 189k<br \/>\n10:30 DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (7\/22): exp. 200k, prior 911k<br \/>\n10:30 DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (7\/22): exp. 900k, prior 214k<br \/>\n10:30 DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization (7\/22): exp. 0.50%, prior 0.90%<br \/>\n10:30 DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand (7\/22): prior 16963<br \/>\n10:30 DOE Gasoline Implied Demand (7\/22): prior 10180.4<br \/>\n10:30 DOE Distillate Implied Demand (7\/22): prior 5224.6<br \/>\n14:00 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) (7\/22): exp. 0.50%, prior 0.50%<br \/>\n14:00 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) (7\/22): exp. 0.25%, prior 0.25%<\/p>\n<p><strong>Global Economics<\/strong><br \/>\n04:00 EUR M3 Money Supply y\/y<br \/>\n04:30 GBP Premlim GDP q\/q<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Before the Open:<\/p>\n<p><strong>Altria Group (MO)<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Coca-Cola<\/strong>\u00a0(KO)<br \/>\n<strong>Corning<\/strong>\u00a0(GLW)<br \/>\n<strong>Lumber Liquidators<\/strong>\u00a0(LL)<\/p>\n<p>After the Close:<\/p>\n<p><strong>Amgen\u00a0<\/strong>(AMGN)<br \/>\n<strong>Facebook\u00a0<\/strong>(FB)<br \/>\n<strong>GoPro\u00a0<\/strong>(GPRO)<br \/>\n<strong>Hologic\u00a0<\/strong>(HOLX)<br \/>\n<strong>ServiceNow\u00a0<\/strong>(NOW)<br \/>\n<strong>SolarCity\u00a0<\/strong>(SCTY)<br \/>\n<strong>Wynn Resorts\u00a0<\/strong>(WYNN)<\/p>\n<p>*************<\/p>\n<p>Editor's Note: This is a special FREE edition of Scott Redler's Morning Note, which is released at 8:30 a.m. ET each day as part of <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.t3live.com\/newsletters\/all-access\/\">Redler All-Access<\/a><\/strong><\/span>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Please call my team now at 1-888-998-3548<\/strong> if you'd like to try Redler All-Access for FREE.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Editor&#8217;s Note: This is a special FREE edition of Scott Redler&#8217;s Morning Note and his extended Morning Call video, which are released at 8:30 a.m. ET each day as part of Redler All-Access. Please call my team now at 1-888-998-3548 if you&#8217;d like to get Redler All-Access for FREE. ************* By Scott Redler We have mixed markets around the world this morning. Europe has positive action with the DAX +0.9%, CAC +1.4%, and the FTSE +0.3%, even with DB profits plunging 100% year-over-year. Asia was mixed as the Nikkei rallied 1.7% and the yen dropped on stimulus talks. Shanghai bucked the trend and is down 1.9% as they might curb some wealth management products. The Hang Seng rallied +0.4%. Our markets have been a bit choppy and erratic in this upper area. Strength has been sold and weakness bought as we&#8217;ve tried to figure out if SPX can hold above the 2155-2159 upper zone. If it continues to hold, we&#8217;ll see if it can break and close above 2175 after the 2:00 p.m. Fed announcement today. Some think they could be a bit more hawkish. Oil has been a drag as it slipped from $51 to below $43 with no real bounce. We&#8217;ll see if today&#8217;s 10:30 a.m. inventory number can turn it around to help broaden the rally a bit. USO has yesterday&#8217;s low at $10.02 to watch for a possible RDR long. UWTI has yesterday&#8217;s low at $20.27. Tech has acted much better since last week, when we said it can play catch-up to see all-time highs. QQQ is opening at 2016 highs. See if they can stay above $114.20 to keep momentum. Small caps had a choppy day but ended at 2016 highs with the IWM above $120.60. Now see if it extends and holds above yesterday&#8217;s high of $120.97. Banks have been flagging since earnings. Maybe a more hawkish tone gets them to clear this recent consolidation. I&#8217;ll write down what needs to hold, then pivots to clear to get back on the move. XLF has support at $23.55 and clearing $23.70 with volume could bring back buyers. JPM has to hold $63.50 and clear $64.30 to resolve the flag higher. C has to hold $43.80 and clear $44.40 to resolve the flag higher. BAC started to go yesterday and cleared $14.40. Holding this can get it back towards $15. MS started to clear its flag yesterday above $29.15 and it has room towards $30-32. GS has to hold $159.50 and clear $161.50 to try for the 200 day at $164.50. High-beta tech is on the move in separate patterns: NFLX held its post-earnings low\u00a0Monday\u00a0and closed well, giving some a clue to be long into yesterday&#8217;s gap up on the insider buy. Now see if it holds $90.90 as your pivot support. AMZN has earnings\u00a0Thursday. I would avoid it until then. Recent support is $729-733. GOOGL has numbers\u00a0Thursday. It&#8217;s been holding $750. It might give a trade above $760.50 before it. TSLA has lots of headlines flowing. Elon Musk talks up its potential, but also about a money raise. It needs to hold $225 to potentially give another trade above $231.39. MBLY got hit as news came it ended its relationship with TSLA. But it could strengthen with BMW. It will need some time. It can head into a gap fill if it clears $46.89. BABA has acted decent since clearing $80.05, but found resistance again at $85. Earnings aren&#8217;t until next week. See if it can hold $82.60 until then. NTES woke up\u00a0Monday\u00a0and had some follow-through above $201.50 to hit $206 yesterday. There is no setup now. PCLN is not doing much, but it is flagging after a big move. Support is $1305. Mega caps: AAPL had an impressive quarter after sentiment turned very sour. Now maybe with iPhone 7\/7+ on the way, this stock could be more of a tailwind. It cleared $100.50 last night, giving us a good entry. If it can hold this, it could be more of a focus with decent resistance at $103.50-$105. First step is holding the gap up. Then, it needs to break the downtrend. MSFT still acts well but it\u2019s a little choppy and extended. There is no setup but it\u2019s fine as long as it holds $55.50. IBM acts fine but it\u2019s also choppy. It needs to hold $161 to stay constructive. INTC had a nice move back towards the highs after holding the 21 day at $34. There is not much to do now. Social names: FB reports today after the close as it opens at another all-time high. There is not much to do now. It is priced for perfection. If you are an investor, congratulations. Traders should probably wait until after the report. $122 is the recent pivot high. TWTR still can&#8217;t put it together. It&#8217;s down 10%. There is support at $16.20ish. My options will be at $0. I will let dust settle and see how it shapes up today. Other notables: ACIA: after a big move with multiple pivots, it could use a rest. Jim Cramer pumped it last night. I may look for a cute short vs. $65.59. TWLO is choppy in this tight upper range. It seems like it needs earnings before the next move\u2019s inside range. It has support at $39.50 and resistance at $41.70. LVS had a gap &#038; go after earnings. I wouldn&#8217;t chase it now. See if it digests above the earnings gap at $49.27. WYNN has had a nice move since clearing the $97 pivot. It still has earnings to contend with. $105 offers some resistance. FCX had a big reversal after earnings. With a bit of time, perhaps it takes out $12.90 to get back towards $14. Metals are flattish. We have Fed statements today. GLD\u2019s recent low is $125.11 after a corrective move from $131+. It will need to clear and close above $126.40 to bring in buyers. TLT:\u00a0I\u2019m not sure if the recent down move priced in a more hawkish<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":4097,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,1],"tags":[87,14,37],"class_list":["post-4480","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles","category-uncategorized","tag-redler-all-access","tag-scottredler","tag-scott-redler-morning-call"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Scott Redler Morning Note: Fed &amp; Market Outlook | T3 live<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"T3 Live\u2019s Scott Redler analyzes global markets, key support levels and Federal Reserve expectations, giving traders a roadmap for the session ahead.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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