{"id":36998,"date":"2019-01-03T09:41:10","date_gmt":"2019-01-03T14:41:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.t3live.com\/blog\/?p=36998"},"modified":"2019-01-03T09:41:10","modified_gmt":"2019-01-03T14:41:10","slug":"scott-redler-reality-bites-apple","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2019\/01\/03\/scott-redler-reality-bites-apple\/","title":{"rendered":"Scott Redler: Reality Bites Apple, and What Could Happen Next"},"content":{"rendered":"

We're ahead of the biggest political event since the 2018 Presidential election.<\/p>\n

It seems like a Democrat House and Republican Senate would be equities friendly.<\/p>\n

And as long as we hold the SPX 2700 area, I'll be positioned for it to clear 2756 for a move back towards 2816-2840.<\/p>\n

But if that rally happens, don't rush to buy into bull hype too quickly. Seasonality and buybacks may be on the bulls' side, but there's a bigger pattern to worry about. (more on this below)<\/p>\n

If the Democrats take the House and Senate, volatility probably spikes.<\/p>\n

A close of below 2700 would probably mean a retest of 2603.<\/p>\n

As you can see on the micro chart below, an inverse head & shoulders may be setting up. The election results may dictate if the pattern resolves up, or if the right shoulder gets broken for that 2603 retest.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/span><\/p>\n

Now let's look at a more intermediate-term chart.<\/p>\n

If 2603 gets lost, traders will start worrying about a trip to 2560 – 2580, and a rougher road to end 2018 and start 2019.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/span><\/p>\n

Now let's take a look at the big macro chart.<\/p>\n

This is why I said we can't too easily buy into a giant year-end rally.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/span><\/p>\n

A rally from here could complete the right shoulder into 2800-2840, making 2600ish the neckline.<\/p>\n

If this pattern triggers to the downside and the neckline breaks, the measured move points to 2300 — which could be a 2019 story<\/p>\n

Positions Disclosure: <\/strong>As of November 6, 2018 at 10:33 a.m. ET, Scott J. Redler is long FB, AAPL, SPY, IWM<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We’re ahead of the biggest political event since the 2018 Presidential election. It seems like a Democrat House and Republican Senate would be equities friendly. And as long as we hold the SPX 2700 area, I’ll be positioned for it to clear 2756 for a move back towards 2816-2840. But if that rally happens, don’t rush to buy into bull hype too quickly. Seasonality and buybacks may be on the bulls’ side, but there’s a bigger pattern to worry about. (more on this below) If the Democrats take the House and Senate, volatility probably spikes. A close of below 2700 would probably mean a retest of 2603. As you can see on the micro chart below, an inverse head & shoulders may be setting up. The election results may dictate if the pattern resolves up, or if the right shoulder gets broken for that 2603 retest. Now let’s look at a more intermediate-term chart. If 2603 gets lost, traders will start worrying about a trip to 2560 – 2580, and a rougher road to end 2018 and start 2019. Now let’s take a look at the big macro chart. This is why I said we can’t too easily buy into a giant year-end rally. A rally from here could complete the right shoulder into 2800-2840, making 2600ish the neckline. If this pattern triggers to the downside and the neckline breaks, the measured move points to 2300 — which could be a 2019 story Positions Disclosure: As of November 6, 2018 at 10:33 a.m. ET, Scott J. Redler is long FB, AAPL, SPY, IWM<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":21349,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[671,76],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-36998","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-no-ads","category-scott-redler"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36998","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36998"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36998\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37008,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36998\/revisions\/37008"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21349"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36998"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36998"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36998"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}