{"id":16253,"date":"2017-09-15T09:38:40","date_gmt":"2017-09-15T14:38:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.t3live.com\/blog\/?p=16253"},"modified":"2017-09-15T09:38:40","modified_gmt":"2017-09-15T14:38:40","slug":"did-a-whiff-of-spx-2500-makes-the-bulls-crazy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2017\/09\/15\/did-a-whiff-of-spx-2500-makes-the-bulls-crazy\/","title":{"rendered":"Did a Whiff of SPX 2500 Makes the Bulls Crazy?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>This week, the SPX set multiple records with a new all-time high at 2498.43.<\/p>\n<p>And the index is still within striking distance of 2500, even with a missile launch in North Korea and a terror attack in London.<\/p>\n<p>So are traders complacent?<\/p>\n<p>Are the bulls asleep at the wheel?<\/p>\n<p>Let's find out using our 4 sentiment indicators.<\/p>\n<p>(<strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.t3live.com\/blog\/2017\/04\/25\/5-sentiment-indicators-all-traders-should-know-about\/\" data-cke-saved-href=\"http:\/\/www.t3live.com\/blog\/2017\/04\/25\/5-sentiment-indicators-all-traders-should-know-about\/\">click here<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0for a primer on the sentiment indicators below)<\/p>\n<p><strong>1) VIX Spread &#8211; Bullish<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The VIX is once again hovering around the 10 level, indicating that traders are not pricing in much volatility.<\/p>\n<p>The 3-month spread is at +3.86, which means traders are fairly bullish.<\/p>\n<p>When this number moves above +4.5, then it's a clear sign of froth. We're obviously not there yet.<\/p>\n<p>(<strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.t3live.com\/blog\/2017\/04\/17\/what-is-vix-curve\/\" data-cke-saved-href=\"http:\/\/www.t3live.com\/blog\/2017\/04\/17\/what-is-vix-curve\/\">click here<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong>for a primer on the VIX spread)<\/p>\n<p><strong>2) CNN Fear & Greed Index &#8211; Bullish<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The Fear & Greed Index is at 73, nearly doubling from 38 last week.<\/p>\n<p>The F&G Index operates on a 1-100 scale, and a reading of 73 qualifies as fairly bullish.<\/p>\n<p><strong>3) AAII Sentiment &#8211; Neutral<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 41.3% of individual investors are bullish. This is up huge from 29.3% last week.<\/p>\n<p>This 41.3% reading indicates that individual investors are neutral, though it's much higher than the year-to-date average of 32.9%.<\/p>\n<p>This reading has been fairly depressed all year, so I was surprised to see such a big jump, even with the market's upward momentum.<\/p>\n<p><strong>4<\/strong><strong>) CBOE Equity Put-Call &#8211; Bullish<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio was at 0.56 Thursday, which is well below the long-term average of 0.655.<\/p>\n<p>The 3-day moving average is 0.5633, and\u00a0the 10-day moving average is 0.598. Both are also below the long-term average, and indicate higher-than-normal demand for call options.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>3 bullish (up from 2 last\u00a0week)<\/li>\n<li>1 neutral\u00a0 (up\u00a0from 1 last week)<\/li>\n<li>0 bearish (down\u00a0from 1\u00a0last week)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Traders are much, much more bullish than last week, and this is perhaps best seen in the AAII Sentiment and CBOE equity put-call measures.<\/p>\n<p>AAII sentiment isn't bullish. But it's made a huge jump, and a relatively large number of individual investors just got on board the bull train.<\/p>\n<p>The CBOE equity put-call is even more interesting. It has been below the long-term average for 11 of the past 13 trading days, which implies that traders are loading up on calls.<\/p>\n<p>I love trolling the permabears by correctly pointing out that they always say everyone's bullish &#8212; even when the numbers clearly point to bearishness.<\/p>\n<p>But today, the permabears are right.<\/p>\n<p>The crowd is very bullish, which leads to a very logical question: are we set for a fall?<\/p>\n<p>It's tough to say.<\/p>\n<p>I would watch for a drop in the VIX to the 9.5 to 9.75 range. That could mark extreme complacency, providing a possible opportunity to speculate on a market dip and spike in volatility.<\/p>\n<p>In such a scenario, I would certainly consider buying SPY puts, since they provide a cheap, efficient, and liquid way to speculate on a market decline.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This week, the SPX set multiple records with a new all-time high at 2498.43. And the index is still within striking distance of 2500, even with a missile launch in North Korea and a terror attack in London. So are traders complacent? Are the bulls asleep at the wheel? Let&#8217;s find out using our 4 sentiment indicators. (click here\u00a0for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread &#8211; Bullish The VIX is once again hovering around the 10 level, indicating that traders are not pricing in much volatility. The 3-month spread is at +3.86, which means traders are fairly bullish. When this number moves above +4.5, then it&#8217;s a clear sign of froth. We&#8217;re obviously not there yet. (click here\u00a0for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear &#038; Greed Index &#8211; Bullish The Fear &#038; Greed Index is at 73, nearly doubling from 38 last week. The F&#038;G Index operates on a 1-100 scale, and a reading of 73 qualifies as fairly bullish. 3) AAII Sentiment &#8211; Neutral The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 41.3% of individual investors are bullish. This is up huge from 29.3% last week. This 41.3% reading indicates that individual investors are neutral, though it&#8217;s much higher than the year-to-date average of 32.9%. This reading has been fairly depressed all year, so I was surprised to see such a big jump, even with the market&#8217;s upward momentum. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call &#8211; Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio was at 0.56 Thursday, which is well below the long-term average of 0.655. The 3-day moving average is 0.5633, and\u00a0the 10-day moving average is 0.598. Both are also below the long-term average, and indicate higher-than-normal demand for call options. Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 3 bullish (up from 2 last\u00a0week) 1 neutral\u00a0 (up\u00a0from 1 last week) 0 bearish (down\u00a0from 1\u00a0last week) Traders are much, much more bullish than last week, and this is perhaps best seen in the AAII Sentiment and CBOE equity put-call measures. AAII sentiment isn&#8217;t bullish. But it&#8217;s made a huge jump, and a relatively large number of individual investors just got on board the bull train. The CBOE equity put-call is even more interesting. It has been below the long-term average for 11 of the past 13 trading days, which implies that traders are loading up on calls. I love trolling the permabears by correctly pointing out that they always say everyone&#8217;s bullish &#8212; even when the numbers clearly point to bearishness. But today, the permabears are right. The crowd is very bullish, which leads to a very logical question: are we set for a fall? It&#8217;s tough to say. I would watch for a drop in the VIX to the 9.5 to 9.75 range. That could mark extreme complacency, providing a possible opportunity to speculate on a market dip and spike in volatility. In such a scenario, I would certainly consider buying SPY puts, since they provide a cheap, efficient, and liquid way to speculate on a market decline.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":13133,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16253","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Did a Whiff of SPX 2500 Makes the Bulls Crazy? - T3 Live<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2017\/09\/15\/did-a-whiff-of-spx-2500-makes-the-bulls-crazy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Did a Whiff of SPX 2500 Makes the Bulls Crazy? - T3 Live\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This week, the SPX set multiple records with a new all-time high at 2498.43. And the index is still within striking distance of 2500, even with a missile launch in North Korea and a terror attack in London. So are traders complacent? Are the bulls asleep at the wheel? Let&#039;s find out using our 4 sentiment indicators. (click here\u00a0for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread &#8211; Bullish The VIX is once again hovering around the 10 level, indicating that traders are not pricing in much volatility. The 3-month spread is at +3.86, which means traders are fairly bullish. When this number moves above +4.5, then it&#039;s a clear sign of froth. We&#039;re obviously not there yet. (click here\u00a0for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear &amp; Greed Index &#8211; Bullish The Fear &amp; Greed Index is at 73, nearly doubling from 38 last week. The F&amp;G Index operates on a 1-100 scale, and a reading of 73 qualifies as fairly bullish. 3) AAII Sentiment &#8211; Neutral The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 41.3% of individual investors are bullish. This is up huge from 29.3% last week. This 41.3% reading indicates that individual investors are neutral, though it&#039;s much higher than the year-to-date average of 32.9%. This reading has been fairly depressed all year, so I was surprised to see such a big jump, even with the market&#039;s upward momentum. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call &#8211; Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio was at 0.56 Thursday, which is well below the long-term average of 0.655. The 3-day moving average is 0.5633, and\u00a0the 10-day moving average is 0.598. Both are also below the long-term average, and indicate higher-than-normal demand for call options. Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 3 bullish (up from 2 last\u00a0week) 1 neutral\u00a0 (up\u00a0from 1 last week) 0 bearish (down\u00a0from 1\u00a0last week) Traders are much, much more bullish than last week, and this is perhaps best seen in the AAII Sentiment and CBOE equity put-call measures. AAII sentiment isn&#039;t bullish. But it&#039;s made a huge jump, and a relatively large number of individual investors just got on board the bull train. The CBOE equity put-call is even more interesting. It has been below the long-term average for 11 of the past 13 trading days, which implies that traders are loading up on calls. I love trolling the permabears by correctly pointing out that they always say everyone&#039;s bullish &#8212; even when the numbers clearly point to bearishness. But today, the permabears are right. The crowd is very bullish, which leads to a very logical question: are we set for a fall? It&#039;s tough to say. I would watch for a drop in the VIX to the 9.5 to 9.75 range. That could mark extreme complacency, providing a possible opportunity to speculate on a market dip and spike in volatility. In such a scenario, I would certainly consider buying SPY puts, since they provide a cheap, efficient, and liquid way to speculate on a market decline.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2017\/09\/15\/did-a-whiff-of-spx-2500-makes-the-bulls-crazy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"T3 Live\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2017-09-15T14:38:40+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/sentiment-report-slider.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"960\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"720\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Michael Comeau\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Michael Comeau\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2017\/09\/15\/did-a-whiff-of-spx-2500-makes-the-bulls-crazy\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2017\/09\/15\/did-a-whiff-of-spx-2500-makes-the-bulls-crazy\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Michael Comeau\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/#\/schema\/person\/fba749facdb049b3468b79104546c739\"},\"headline\":\"Did a Whiff of SPX 2500 Makes the Bulls Crazy?\",\"datePublished\":\"2017-09-15T14:38:40+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2017\/09\/15\/did-a-whiff-of-spx-2500-makes-the-bulls-crazy\/\"},\"wordCount\":499,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2017\/09\/15\/did-a-whiff-of-spx-2500-makes-the-bulls-crazy\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/sentiment-report-slider.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"Articles\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2017\/09\/15\/did-a-whiff-of-spx-2500-makes-the-bulls-crazy\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2017\/09\/15\/did-a-whiff-of-spx-2500-makes-the-bulls-crazy\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2017\/09\/15\/did-a-whiff-of-spx-2500-makes-the-bulls-crazy\/\",\"name\":\"Did a Whiff of SPX 2500 Makes the Bulls Crazy? 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- T3 Live","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2017\/09\/15\/did-a-whiff-of-spx-2500-makes-the-bulls-crazy\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Did a Whiff of SPX 2500 Makes the Bulls Crazy? - T3 Live","og_description":"This week, the SPX set multiple records with a new all-time high at 2498.43. And the index is still within striking distance of 2500, even with a missile launch in North Korea and a terror attack in London. So are traders complacent? Are the bulls asleep at the wheel? Let's find out using our 4 sentiment indicators. (click here\u00a0for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread &#8211; Bullish The VIX is once again hovering around the 10 level, indicating that traders are not pricing in much volatility. The 3-month spread is at +3.86, which means traders are fairly bullish. When this number moves above +4.5, then it's a clear sign of froth. We're obviously not there yet. (click here\u00a0for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index &#8211; Bullish The Fear & Greed Index is at 73, nearly doubling from 38 last week. The F&G Index operates on a 1-100 scale, and a reading of 73 qualifies as fairly bullish. 3) AAII Sentiment &#8211; Neutral The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 41.3% of individual investors are bullish. This is up huge from 29.3% last week. This 41.3% reading indicates that individual investors are neutral, though it's much higher than the year-to-date average of 32.9%. This reading has been fairly depressed all year, so I was surprised to see such a big jump, even with the market's upward momentum. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call &#8211; Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio was at 0.56 Thursday, which is well below the long-term average of 0.655. The 3-day moving average is 0.5633, and\u00a0the 10-day moving average is 0.598. Both are also below the long-term average, and indicate higher-than-normal demand for call options. Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 3 bullish (up from 2 last\u00a0week) 1 neutral\u00a0 (up\u00a0from 1 last week) 0 bearish (down\u00a0from 1\u00a0last week) Traders are much, much more bullish than last week, and this is perhaps best seen in the AAII Sentiment and CBOE equity put-call measures. AAII sentiment isn't bullish. But it's made a huge jump, and a relatively large number of individual investors just got on board the bull train. The CBOE equity put-call is even more interesting. It has been below the long-term average for 11 of the past 13 trading days, which implies that traders are loading up on calls. I love trolling the permabears by correctly pointing out that they always say everyone's bullish &#8212; even when the numbers clearly point to bearishness. But today, the permabears are right. The crowd is very bullish, which leads to a very logical question: are we set for a fall? It's tough to say. I would watch for a drop in the VIX to the 9.5 to 9.75 range. That could mark extreme complacency, providing a possible opportunity to speculate on a market dip and spike in volatility. In such a scenario, I would certainly consider buying SPY puts, since they provide a cheap, efficient, and liquid way to speculate on a market decline.","og_url":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2017\/09\/15\/did-a-whiff-of-spx-2500-makes-the-bulls-crazy\/","og_site_name":"T3 Live","article_published_time":"2017-09-15T14:38:40+00:00","og_image":[{"width":960,"height":720,"url":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/sentiment-report-slider.png","type":"image\/png"}],"author":"Michael Comeau","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Michael Comeau","Est. reading time":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2017\/09\/15\/did-a-whiff-of-spx-2500-makes-the-bulls-crazy\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2017\/09\/15\/did-a-whiff-of-spx-2500-makes-the-bulls-crazy\/"},"author":{"name":"Michael Comeau","@id":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/#\/schema\/person\/fba749facdb049b3468b79104546c739"},"headline":"Did a Whiff of SPX 2500 Makes the Bulls Crazy?","datePublished":"2017-09-15T14:38:40+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2017\/09\/15\/did-a-whiff-of-spx-2500-makes-the-bulls-crazy\/"},"wordCount":499,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2017\/09\/15\/did-a-whiff-of-spx-2500-makes-the-bulls-crazy\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/sentiment-report-slider.png","articleSection":["Articles"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2017\/09\/15\/did-a-whiff-of-spx-2500-makes-the-bulls-crazy\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2017\/09\/15\/did-a-whiff-of-spx-2500-makes-the-bulls-crazy\/","url":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2017\/09\/15\/did-a-whiff-of-spx-2500-makes-the-bulls-crazy\/","name":"Did a Whiff of SPX 2500 Makes the Bulls Crazy? 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