{"id":12851,"date":"2017-06-05T17:45:05","date_gmt":"2017-06-05T17:45:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.t3live.com\/blog\/?p=12851"},"modified":"2017-06-05T18:37:58","modified_gmt":"2017-06-05T18:37:58","slug":"the-sub-10-vix-is-about-to-set-a-crazy-record","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2017\/06\/05\/the-sub-10-vix-is-about-to-set-a-crazy-record\/","title":{"rendered":"The Sub-10 VIX Is About to Set a Crazy Record"},"content":{"rendered":"

Min Zeng of the Wall Street Journal just Tweeted<\/a><\/strong><\/span>\u00a0a very interesting stat about the VIX<\/strong>:<\/p>\n

$VIX at 9.75, on pace to close under 10 for the seventh time this year–the most
\never.<\/em><\/p>\n

I double-checked the data and indeed, Zeng is correct.<\/p>\n

But taking a deeper look at the data (my data set goes back to 1990), things get even more bizarre.<\/p>\n

All 6 of 2017's sub-10 closes in the VIX happened on May 8 or later. (remember, today's would make lucky number 7)<\/p>\n

And if get another sub-10 close, that would mark 5 in the past 7 sessions.<\/p>\n

Since 1990, the VIX <\/strong>has NEVER closed below 10 in 5 out of 7 sessions.<\/p>\n

So it's on the verge of a truly incredible record.<\/p>\n

Already, the VIX has finished under 10 in 4 of the last 6 sessions. This has only happened 3 other times since 1990.<\/p>\n

Those 3 other occurences were on 12\/28, 12\/29, and 12\/30 in 1993, during a streak when the VIX had 4 straight closes below 10.<\/p>\n

So the post-election collapse in volatility<\/a> <\/strong><\/span>truly is remarkable.<\/p>\n

Now let's take things a step further.<\/p>\n

Prior to May 8, 2017, there were only 9 sub-10 closes in the VIX.<\/p>\n

That's right.<\/p>\n

Just 9 out of 6,891 trading days — or 0.13% of the time.<\/p>\n

And now we're going on 5 in just 7 days — or 71%!<\/p>\n

This looks insane, but let me explain why it's perfectly logical.<\/p>\n

The VIX represents expected volatility<\/a><\/span>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

And when actual market volatility goes to near-zero<\/a><\/strong><\/span> — as it has since President Trump's victory — the VIX follows.<\/p>\n

Therefore, the VIX' behavior is entirely logical.<\/p>\n

Anecdotally, I've been hearing a lot of traders chat up long positions in VIX-related instruments like VIX calls or VXX calls, or plain old SPY\/SPX options.<\/p>\n

I'll just leave you with one of the great all-time market one-liners:<\/p>\n

“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”<\/em>
\n-John Maynard Keynes<\/p>\n

2017 has been BRUTAL to traders betting on a rebound in volatility.<\/p>\n

You can know why it should happen, but you had better know when, or else you'll be eaten alive by time decay, one penny at a time.<\/p>\n

So if you're going to put your chips down… be very careful.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Min Zeng of the Wall Street Journal just Tweeted\u00a0a very interesting stat about the VIX: $VIX at 9.75, on pace to close under 10 for the seventh time this year–the most ever. I double-checked the data and indeed, Zeng is correct. But taking a deeper look at the data (my data set goes back to 1990), things get even more bizarre. All 6 of 2017’s sub-10 closes in the VIX happened on May 8 or later. (remember, today’s would make lucky number 7) And if get another sub-10 close, that would mark 5 in the past 7 sessions. Since 1990, the VIX has NEVER closed below 10 in 5 out of 7 sessions. So it’s on the verge of a truly incredible record. Already, the VIX has finished under 10 in 4 of the last 6 sessions. This has only happened 3 other times since 1990. Those 3 other occurences were on 12\/28, 12\/29, and 12\/30 in 1993, during a streak when the VIX had 4 straight closes below 10. So the post-election collapse in volatility truly is remarkable. Now let’s take things a step further. Prior to May 8, 2017, there were only 9 sub-10 closes in the VIX. That’s right. Just 9 out of 6,891 trading days — or 0.13% of the time. And now we’re going on 5 in just 7 days — or 71%! This looks insane, but let me explain why it’s perfectly logical. The VIX represents expected volatility. And when actual market volatility goes to near-zero — as it has since President Trump’s victory — the VIX follows. Therefore, the VIX’ behavior is entirely logical. Anecdotally, I’ve been hearing a lot of traders chat up long positions in VIX-related instruments like VIX calls or VXX calls, or plain old SPY\/SPX options. I’ll just leave you with one of the great all-time market one-liners: “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” -John Maynard Keynes 2017 has been BRUTAL to traders betting on a rebound in volatility. You can know why it should happen, but you had better know when, or else you’ll be eaten alive by time decay, one penny at a time. So if you’re going to put your chips down… be very careful.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":10776,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[9,10],"class_list":["post-12851","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles","tag-vix","tag-volatility"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Sub-10 VIX Is About to Set a Crazy Record - T3 Live<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2017\/06\/05\/the-sub-10-vix-is-about-to-set-a-crazy-record\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Sub-10 VIX Is About to Set a Crazy Record - T3 Live\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Min Zeng of the Wall Street Journal just Tweeted\u00a0a very interesting stat about the VIX: $VIX at 9.75, on pace to close under 10 for the seventh time this year–the most ever. I double-checked the data and indeed, Zeng is correct. But taking a deeper look at the data (my data set goes back to 1990), things get even more bizarre. All 6 of 2017's sub-10 closes in the VIX happened on May 8 or later. (remember, today's would make lucky number 7) And if get another sub-10 close, that would mark 5 in the past 7 sessions. Since 1990, the VIX has NEVER closed below 10 in 5 out of 7 sessions. So it's on the verge of a truly incredible record. Already, the VIX has finished under 10 in 4 of the last 6 sessions. This has only happened 3 other times since 1990. Those 3 other occurences were on 12\/28, 12\/29, and 12\/30 in 1993, during a streak when the VIX had 4 straight closes below 10. So the post-election collapse in volatility truly is remarkable. Now let's take things a step further. Prior to May 8, 2017, there were only 9 sub-10 closes in the VIX. That's right. Just 9 out of 6,891 trading days — or 0.13% of the time. And now we're going on 5 in just 7 days — or 71%! This looks insane, but let me explain why it's perfectly logical. The VIX represents expected volatility. And when actual market volatility goes to near-zero — as it has since President Trump's victory — the VIX follows. Therefore, the VIX' behavior is entirely logical. Anecdotally, I've been hearing a lot of traders chat up long positions in VIX-related instruments like VIX calls or VXX calls, or plain old SPY\/SPX options. I'll just leave you with one of the great all-time market one-liners: “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” -John Maynard Keynes 2017 has been BRUTAL to traders betting on a rebound in volatility. You can know why it should happen, but you had better know when, or else you'll be eaten alive by time decay, one penny at a time. So if you're going to put your chips down… be very careful.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2017\/06\/05\/the-sub-10-vix-is-about-to-set-a-crazy-record\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"T3 Live\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2017-06-05T17:45:05+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2017-06-05T18:37:58+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/market-update-slider.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"960\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"720\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Michael Comeau\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Michael Comeau\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2017\/06\/05\/the-sub-10-vix-is-about-to-set-a-crazy-record\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2017\/06\/05\/the-sub-10-vix-is-about-to-set-a-crazy-record\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Michael Comeau\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/#\/schema\/person\/fba749facdb049b3468b79104546c739\"},\"headline\":\"The Sub-10 VIX Is About to Set a Crazy Record\",\"datePublished\":\"2017-06-05T17:45:05+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2017-06-05T18:37:58+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2017\/06\/05\/the-sub-10-vix-is-about-to-set-a-crazy-record\/\"},\"wordCount\":363,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2017\/06\/05\/the-sub-10-vix-is-about-to-set-a-crazy-record\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/market-update-slider.png\",\"keywords\":[\"VIX\",\"volatility\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Articles\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2017\/06\/05\/the-sub-10-vix-is-about-to-set-a-crazy-record\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2017\/06\/05\/the-sub-10-vix-is-about-to-set-a-crazy-record\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blog.t3live.com\/2017\/06\/05\/the-sub-10-vix-is-about-to-set-a-crazy-record\/\",\"name\":\"The Sub-10 VIX Is About to Set a Crazy Record - 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I double-checked the data and indeed, Zeng is correct. But taking a deeper look at the data (my data set goes back to 1990), things get even more bizarre. All 6 of 2017's sub-10 closes in the VIX happened on May 8 or later. (remember, today's would make lucky number 7) And if get another sub-10 close, that would mark 5 in the past 7 sessions. Since 1990, the VIX has NEVER closed below 10 in 5 out of 7 sessions. So it's on the verge of a truly incredible record. Already, the VIX has finished under 10 in 4 of the last 6 sessions. This has only happened 3 other times since 1990. Those 3 other occurences were on 12\/28, 12\/29, and 12\/30 in 1993, during a streak when the VIX had 4 straight closes below 10. So the post-election collapse in volatility truly is remarkable. Now let's take things a step further. Prior to May 8, 2017, there were only 9 sub-10 closes in the VIX. That's right. Just 9 out of 6,891 trading days — or 0.13% of the time. And now we're going on 5 in just 7 days — or 71%! This looks insane, but let me explain why it's perfectly logical. The VIX represents expected volatility. And when actual market volatility goes to near-zero — as it has since President Trump's victory — the VIX follows. Therefore, the VIX' behavior is entirely logical. Anecdotally, I've been hearing a lot of traders chat up long positions in VIX-related instruments like VIX calls or VXX calls, or plain old SPY\/SPX options. I'll just leave you with one of the great all-time market one-liners: “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” -John Maynard Keynes 2017 has been BRUTAL to traders betting on a rebound in volatility. You can know why it should happen, but you had better know when, or else you'll be eaten alive by time decay, one penny at a time. 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