Mr. Cooper Has Set the Price, and It’s 2370
2370 is the key level to watch in SPX. This ties to yesterday’s lows and the 20 day line. So snapping 2370 in short order will also leave Train Tracks, as noted earlier in the Daily Market Report. The SPX has already triggered a down Opening Range Breakdown (a break below the low of the […]
Continue Reading -->Weekly Sentiment Update: The Crowd Is Neutral but Options Traders Are Running Wild
Permabulls always say everyone’s bearish. And permabears always say everyone’s bullish. But let’s look at the actual numbers to see how the crowd actually feels. Last week, we saw sentiment fall to neutral territory after two weeks of strong bullishness. (see here and here) So with the Fed out of the way, let’s see if anything’s changed […]
Continue Reading -->Is That an Oil Selling Climax I See?
After steadily rising for nearly a year, crude crashed last week, ending down more than 9% and closing below $50 a barrel for the first time since the election. A year ago oil was the tail that wagged the equity dog. That correlation broke in December. For example, XLE left a large range Gilligan sell […]
Continue Reading -->How to Define an Uptrend on a Stock Chart
In technical analysis, one of the biggest mistakes you can make is to not have clear criteria for the patterns you’re looking at. What do we mean by that? Quite often, you’ll hear traders use terms like head & shoulders and support and resistance. But you never hear But you never hear about the criteria […]
Continue Reading -->The Trouble With Crude Oil
The action in crude oil has been hideous as of late, as you can see in this weekly chart: To be fair, it doubled in a year, so some profit-taking may be in order. However, let’s hope it can resume the uptrend, or at least hold the uptrend in the $46-$47 area. The oil rebound […]
Continue Reading -->Jeff Cooper: I Smell FOMO Ahead of Fed Day!
“Economic history is a never-ending series of episodes based on falsehoods and lies, not truths. It represents the path to big money. The object is to recognize the trend whose premise is false, ride that trend, and step off before it is discredited.” -George Soros The thing about markets is that things are not black […]
Continue Reading -->Q&A: How to Judge an Economic Data Point
Dear Michael, How can you call the jobs report ‘Meh’? NFP came in at +235K and beat the street expectations. How is that meh? -Randy Dear Randy, The 235K headline number was fine, but that’s not the totality of the report. Average hourly earnings grew by just 0.2% vs. the 0.3% consensus, which offset the […]
Continue Reading -->Chart Analysis: SPX
We have mixed markets to start the week. Europe is up a little and Asia had decent strength. The SPX futures are down 1. Last week we put a low in at 2354 right at the 21 day. Now we will see if that was the correction or do we take that out later this […]
Continue Reading -->Shorts Gone Wild! How to Avoid Getting Crushed by Stocks Like MBLY
Mobileye (MBLY) is a name I cover in my Morning Note fairly regularly. Today, it’s up $14+ after getting taken over by Intel (INTC). Unfortunately, Citron put out a short report on it a few weeks ago, saying it was going to $35, and I got away from it. However, the MBLY action is teaching […]
Continue Reading -->Jeff Cooper: SPY $238 Is a Critical Level
Last week the SPY/SPX attempted to turn up from the fourth shallow pullback since the Trump Train pulled out of the station in November. The first pullback was 26 SPX points into 12/2. The second was 40 points into 12/30. The third was 34 points into 1/31. So far the, most recent pullback has run […]
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