Throughout 2022 Hit & Run’s focus was to look for signs of an intermediate-term bottom in June.
From a November 22 all-time high, QQQ panicked into a low on the Gann “fatal 7th month from high” in June.
Corroborating the idea of a low was that the Q’s undercut a trend channel mirroring the overthrow of the same trend channel at the Nov top.
Validating the idea of a low of some degree is that the 269 June low for the move (so far) squares out with November 22, the date of the ATH.
Price points to time, time points to price. This is the innate symmetry and geometry of the markets as revealed through my Square of 9 Wheel pictured below.
Further confirmation of a low came with the “bullish” behavior following a turn up of the 3-Week Chart—3 consecutive higher weekly highs.
In other words, the turn-up did not perpetuate a leg lower as occurred on the first turn up of the QQQ 3 Week Chart at the end of March.
Late March was the only other time the Q’s have turned their 3 Week Chart up since their November peak.
A change in character with bullish follow through on Friday projects higher into late July/early August (the 40 year anniversary of the start of the Great Bull on August 12, 1982).
Upside follow through on Monday further validates higher prices.
Theoretically, that could change as we are only on the second week out from the turn up of the 3 Week Chart but drilling down to the dailies shows two higher highs and two higher lows.
The presumption is the Q’s will be magnetized to a test of an up-sloping channel in the low 300 region– at least– the action from there if achieved will open the door higher.
The key pivot to watch is 303 specifically as that is 180 degrees up from the 269 June low for the year.
In Friday morning’s report we wrote as to the SPX:
“Cycles and the structure suggest it is possible an intermediate-term low was carved out in June.A Wave 1 decline to be followed by a Wave 2 counter-trend corrective rally…
The SPX broke down below a rising trend line on Wednesday and Thursday.
On Wednesday, the index rebounded, closing above the rising trend line.
On Thursday, the trend line was broken with authority but once again rebounded to backtest the broke trend line.
If the SPX can convert and reclaim and sustain above it pushing above 2800, a Bear Trap (bullish) may be in progress.
And, there are beaucoup bears for whom every rally has been easy salmon.
Recapturing 3820 may be a come to Jesus moment for those selling every rip.”
On the above SPX daily, not how the index ran up into Phil D Gap from June 13 and was rejected. My expectation is that SPX has a date with Phil D Gap from June 10 in the 4020 region.
Hit & Run members recall that 4020 projection well from early 2022.
It is an important geometric 1080 degrees down from the 4818 all-time high.
If the SPX can reclaim this 4020 region, it opens the door to 4120 quickly.
In sum, stocks triggered multi-week buy signals after holding 6 month downside targets in Price and Time.
The July 13/14 Bottoming Tail buy signals and the Trap Door signal on July 15 projected a sharp rally into late July/early August.
A multi-month buy signal from early July and the 90-year anniversary of the 1932 low projects a turn up of the Monthly Swing Chart in early August with the possibility of two consecutive higher monthly highs on deck.
Today, July 18th, will be a key day to validate last Thursday’s (July 14th reversal).