GDX: The Really Big Picture

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We usually look at the more speculative GDXJ where the junior gold miners reside as this is where the leverage is.

Today I want to look at GDX which embodies the more liquid stocks the institutions will come for first.

GDX carved out a big wave 2 low in March 2020.

As Hit & Run members recall, it was not easy being a bull in the cold in March 2021.

A smaller wave 3 peak played out into early August 2020.

A textbook Bull Flag followed into the one year cycle low in March 2021 for a wave 4 low.

GDX triggered a Rule of 4 Breakout in early April, backtested the breakout point as it kissed its 20 week ma goodbye and traced out a smaller wave 1 advance 4 weeks ago.

It has been consolidating for 3 weeks.

This week it carved out the first weekly Plus One/Minus Two weekly buyset up since breaking out of the Bull Flag.

The bare minimum requirements have been met for a little wave 2 low in this 3 week consolidation.

It should be easy to see if GDX is in the heart of a 3rd wave up by virtue of the accelerated momentum consistent with a 3rd wave.

On my Square of 9 Wheel, 180 degrees up from the March 30/31 low ties to the 43 region

GDX hasn’t reached 43 yet. My expectation is it will do so and momentum through 43 will open the door to a full 360 degree move to the 57 region.

Green is 31 and 57

Purple is 43

Blue is mid-August

With August/September marking runway moves in the PM miners in 2011 and 2016, we are on watch for a summer spike in 2021.

Why?

We are 10 years from the 2011 and 2016 spikes.

These 120 month and 60 month cycles are important Gann periodicities.

For example, the SPX exploded in the fall of 2012 above the double tops from 2000 and 2007.

The fall of 2012 was 10 years from the 2002 bear market bottom and 5 years from the 2007 bull market top.

This summer may see Mr. Inflation saying, “The Fed is transitory.”

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